青藏高原西北缘郭扎错断裂~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar年代学研究——阿尔金断裂西延的新证据

采自阿尔金断裂西南端、沿郭扎错—龙木错—空喀山口一线展布的郭扎错断裂内的糜棱岩样品中同构造黑云母~(40)Ar/~(39)Ar同位素测年的坪年龄分别为105.9Ma±0.5Ma、121.5Ma±0.6Ma、150.4Ma±0.9Ma,表明其早期韧性变形事件发生在晚侏罗世和早白垩世晚期,与阿尔金断裂带主期活动的时期基本一致,为阿尔金断裂带西延提供了新的证据。研究表明,郭扎错断裂与阿尔金断裂带具有一致的变形年代学特征、构造特征等属性,前者是后者的西延部分,二者为同一构造带,均是拉萨地块整体向北运动的动力环境下所产生的脉冲式构造活动的产物。     

利用H/V方法研究琼北火山区的浅表层地质变化特征

海南琼北活火山作为华南沿海重要的第四纪火山, 一直受到国内外学者的广泛关注, 目前对该火山的形成演化已开展了大量深部地质结构的研究, 但对其表层地质结构特征仍然缺乏详细了解。水平-垂直频谱比法(简称H/V方法)已被广泛应用于浅表层地质结构的研究, 本文基于35个便携式微功耗地震仪组成的流动台阵观测数据, 采用经典全波场H/V_(full)和瑞利波椭圆率H/V_(Ray)分析方法, 获得了琼北火山区H/V曲线峰值频率(F₀)和放大倍数(A₀)的空间变化特征。琼北火山区H/V曲线峰值频率变化强烈, 以长流-仙沟断裂为界, 断裂西南侧很难从H/V曲线中获取清晰的F₀和A₀, 而断裂东北侧则存在明显的F₀和A₀。结合已有地质资料, 本文认为长流-仙沟断裂西南侧处于凹陷区, 其浅表层火山岩未发生明显的风化作用, 而东北侧位于隆起区域, 地表火山岩受到了比较严重的风化作用。这一研究结果表明, H/V方法可反映表层火山岩的风化状态, 火山岩出露场地H/V曲线的峰值频率和放大倍数随风化作用程度的增强而表现得更加明显。本研究为琼北火山区浅表火山岩风化状态和地震危险性评估提供了重要的信息支撑。     

基于 LandSat影像的近30年湛江东北海岸线变迁分析

利用1958—2020年实测地形数据与长江入海水沙数据,分析长江口南支最大的涨潮槽———新桥水道动力地貌变化及其 驱 动 机 制。结 果 表 明:新 桥 水 道 在 1958—2020 年 间 的 地 貌 演 变 可 以 分 为 3 个 阶 段:第 一 阶 段(1958—1997年)新桥水道受控于径流、潮流的耦合作用而经历“冲刷-淤积”的周期性变化,其中河槽主要展现上、下游迁移及河槽收缩交替等特征;第二阶段(1997—2003年)因1998和1999年大洪水造成新桥水道冲刷,新桥水道河槽向上游拓展延伸,河道拓宽明显;第三阶段(2003—2020年)则受人类活动干预和扁担沙北移及径流、潮流耦合作用,新桥水道向下游迁移束窄,并逐渐形成以河道上段为淤积中心的地貌演化格局。此外,随着东风西沙水库构建,拦蓄了部分应进入新桥水道的水体,致使河槽上段落潮动力减弱而加剧河槽淤积,导致新桥水道进一步淤浅。     

降雨径流与洪水淹没模型耦合的应用研究

洪水研究包括径流与淹没两种模式。为了探究流域降雨产汇流与淹没情况、提高洪水预报精度,本研究在传统流域水文模型的基础上耦合二维水动力学模型,建立水文-水动力耦合模型。以我国吉林温德河流域为研究实例,模拟了2017年“7·13”洪水在下游口前镇所处子流域洪水淹没过程。首先对基础数据进行预处理,建立HEC-HMS水文模型并进行参数优化后,最终获得流量过程水文结果作为水动力学模型边界条件,之后建立HEC-RAS二维水动力学模型对重要子流域进行淹没模拟。耦合模型计算结果显示,水文模型经多参数优化流量模拟的NSE系数为0.988,水动力计算最大淹没水深达9.3 m相对误差为-5.2%。从泛洪模拟结果来看,子流域上游部分的农田大量被淹,淹没水深范围在0.5~2.0 m,平均流速基本在1 m/s以下。下游口前镇内最大淹没水深接近1 m,水流速度0.2 m/s至1.5 m/s,与实际的淹没情况相吻合。研究表明,所建水文水动力耦合模型模拟计算的结果准确率较高,对具有复杂水文、水力条件的流域的洪水预报具有重要的指导意义。     

A Landsat-based evaluation of lake water clarity in Maine lakes

Temporal trends in water clarity and land-use/land-cover (LULC), as well as the relationship between changes in water clarity and LULC, were analyzed using water clarity values extracted from Landsat images from 1986 to 2008, acquired for east-central Maine. Of 40 lakes identified using satellite imagery, our analysis found one lake with a significant decrease in water clarity. In a second data-set, with 99 lakes, we identified two lakes with a significant increase in water clarity. Analyses of the relationship between temporal changes in the water clarity and LULC did not identify any clear, consistent, relationships between changes in the water quality variables and LULC. Overall, the results of this study aid in the identification of the relationship between water clarity and LULC, and identify temporal changes in water clarity. The findings of this study support the previous research that demonstrates the ability of satellite imagery to be used in assessments of water clarity, thus enabling evaluation at broader spatial scales and longer temporal scales than assessments that rely solely on ground-based data.     

Conflation and aggregation of spatial data improve predictive models for species with limited habitats: A case of the threatened yellow-billed cuckoo in Arizona,USA

Riparian vegetation provides important wildlife habitat in the southwestern United States, but limited distributions and spatial complexity often leads to inaccurate representation in maps used to guide conservation. We test the use of data conflation and aggregation on multiple vegetation/land-cover maps to improve the accuracy of habitat models for the threatened western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus occidentalis). We used species observations (n = 479) from a state-wide survey to develop habitat models from 1) three vegetation/land-cover maps produced at different geographic scales ranging from state to national, and 2) new aggregate maps defined by the spatial agreement of cover types, which were defined as high (agreement = all data sets), moderate (agreement ≥ 2), and low (no agreement required). Model accuracies, predicted habitat locations, and total area of predicted habitat varied considerably, illustrating the effects of input data quality on habitat predictions and resulting potential impacts on conservation planning. Habitat models based on aggregated and conflated data were more accurate and had higher model sensitivity than original vegetation/land-cover, but this accuracy came at the cost of reduced geographic extent of predicted habitat. Using the highest performing models, we assessed cuckoo habitat preference and distribution in Arizona and found that major watersheds containing high-probably habitat are fragmented by a wide swath of low-probability habitat. Focus on riparian restoration in these areas could provide more breeding habitat for the threatened cuckoo, offset potential future habitat losses in adjacent watershed, and increase regional connectivity for other threatened vertebrates that also use riparian corridors.     

A Forest Commons Revival in Slovenia

Forest commons in Slovenia are a poorly known indigenous institution for common resource management. They are a functional entity linked to a specific community that establishes interpersonal and intergenerational ties, as well as a link to the resource. We refer to shared ownership of resource, once made of pastures; today forests prevail. Collective property management remained despite community changes and legislation development. Today registered forest commons represent approximately one-third of those that existed before 1945. We highlight seven developmental turns to explain their revival. Six indicators are used in the analysis of current conditions. Forest commons are a potentially effective response to forest management challenges in Slovenia but also a potential model of social cohesion, rational resource use, and a balance between forest use and conservation. However, they are plagued by state ignorance, which hinders statistically sound analyses.     

1990年以来中国小麦农业气象灾害时空变化特征(英文)

Agro-meteorological disasters(AMD) have become more frequent with climate warming. In this study, the temporal and spatial changes in the occurrence frequency of major meteorological disasters on wheat production were firstly explored by analyzing the observed records at national agro-meteorological stations(AMS) of China from 1991 to 2009. Furthermore, impact of climate change on AMD was discussed by comparing the warmer decade(2000–2009) with another decade(1991–2000). It was found that drought was the most frequent disaster during the last two decades, with a highest proportion of 79%. And the frequency of AMD increased significantly with climate change. Specifically, the main disasters occurred more frequently in the reproductive period than in the vegetative period. Besides, the spatial changes in the AMD frequency were characterized by region-specific. For example, the wheat cultivation areas located on the Loess Plateau and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River suffered mainly from drought. All these results were strongly linked to climate change in China. Therefore, sound adaptation options should be taken based on the latest changes of AMD under global warming to reduce agricultural damages.     

世界石油探明储量分布特征与空间格局演化

石油探明储量是一个动态变化的过程,文章对1980年以来不同区域尺度,包括全球、各大区以及国家层面的石油探明储量变化、分布特征等进行分析,得出结论:(1)世界石油探明储量自1980年以来大致经历了4个阶段,呈现明显的阶梯状增长的态势,基本每十年出现一次储量跃升,并保持一段时间的平稳。储采比一直稳定在40年以上,呈现缓慢上升的趋势。(2)大区尺度的石油探明储量分布不均衡,且探明储量的变化趋势不同。中东一直是石油探明储量最大的地区,其次为中南美洲地区。中东、北美占世界比重先升后降。非洲和中南美洲稳步提升,亚太地区持续下滑。(3)国家层面的石油探明储量呈现明显的集中分布。储量前4的国家占世界储量的53.75%,储量超过10亿吨的国家在很大程度上主导着世界石油开发的基本格局。从各国演变来看,世界石油储量呈现出多极化的趋势,从中东、北美向中亚、俄罗斯和中南美洲等转移。     

气候变化与人类活动联合影响下东江流域非一致性洪水频率

一致性假设一直是洪水频率分析的基本假设条件,但在气候变化与人类活动综合影响下,水文极值序列的一致性假设受到极大挑战。基于此,以东江流域为例,运用GAMLSS模型(广义可加模型),将时间、气候指标(北极涛动AO、北太平洋涛动NPO、太平洋年代际振荡PDO和南方涛动SOI)以及水库指标(Reservoir Index)统一纳入洪水频率分析中,并对东江流域1954―2009年年最大流量序列(AMS)进行频率分析,结果表明:1)龙川、河源和岭下站年最大流量序列均值与时间呈线性关系,方差为常量,而博罗站均值和方差与时间均呈非线性关系;2)水库对各水文站点AMS均值有显著线性影响;3)NPO对各站点AMS均值有显著线性影响,NPO值较高时,东江流域可能面临着较低的洪水风险,在一致性假设前提下,可能高估洪水设计值,反之亦然;而PDO对各站点方差有显著线性(岭下、博罗)/非线性(龙川、河源)影响;4)以时间为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究得出:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均呈单调下降趋势,博罗站1954―1995年左右洪水设计值呈下降趋势,而在1996―2009年呈上升趋势;以气候与水库为协变量构建非一致性模型,研究表明:龙川、河源和岭下3站T年一遇洪水设计值均因水库影响呈向下跃变;5)以气候和水库为协变量的非一致性模型对洪水频率具有良好的预测能力,为非一致条件下设计洪水的预测提供了新的预测方法。