On the recent warming of the southeastern Bering Sea shelf

During the last decade, the southeastern Bering Sea shelf has undergone a warming of 3 °C that is closely associated with a marked decrease of sea ice over the area. This shift in the physical environment of the shelf can be attributed to a combination of mechanisms, including the presence over the eastern Bering Sea shelf of a relatively mild air mass during the winter, especially from 2000 to 2005; a shorter ice season caused by a later fall transition and/or an earlier spring transition; increased flow through Unimak Pass during winter, which introduces warm Gulf of Alaska water onto the southeastern shelf; and the feedback mechanism whereby warmer ocean temperatures during the summer delay the southward advection of sea ice during winter. While the relative importance of these four mechanisms is difficult to quantify, it is evident that for sea ice to form, cold arctic winds must cool the water column. Sea ice is then formed in the polynyas during periods of cold north winds, and this ice is advected southward over the eastern shelf. The other three mechanisms can modify ice formation and melt, and hence its extent. In combination, these four mechanisms have served to temporally and spatially limit ice during the 5-year period (2001–2005). Warming of the eastern Bering Sea shelf could have profound influences on the ecosystem of the Bering Sea—from modification of the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom to the northward advance of subarctic species and the northward retreat of arctic species.     

全球变化下北方农牧交错地带区域适应能力评价模型研究

以可持续发展理论为指导,依据2006年全球变化人类行为计划（IHDP）第六届开放会议精神,参考前人有关生态环境评价框架和指标组合研究,建立了适合北方农牧交错地带特点的区域适应能力评价模型（PSR-RAD）,并对模型的构建思想、参数意义和评价指标的具体计算进行了探讨,以期为全球变化区域响应研究提供参考。针对北方农牧交错地带的实际情况,PSRRAD模型将第四纪地质地貌与现代生态环境研究整合,提出第四纪地质脆弱指数概念,在生态环境胁迫分析中,提出衡量农牧交错地带农牧业环境胁迫程度的地农牧业生产量指数的概念,使生态环境先天与后天胁迫因子、自然与人文因子得以客观体现,对生态环境脆弱性研究的时间和空间尺度均有所拓展。     

陕西省泾惠渠灌区土壤重金属地质累积指数评价

通过对陕西省泾惠渠灌区现场调查及土壤样品的采集,分析了灌区土壤中Hg、Cd、Cr、Pb、As、Cu、Zn等7种元素的含量,应用地质累积指数对灌区土壤进行了评价。结果表明：从区域分布看,阎良区、临潼区、高陵县所属采样点污染较严重;Hg污染最严重,地质累积指数为1.007～3.117,58%的采样点级别为3级,属中度污染到强污染,38%的采样点级别为2级,属中度污染;Zn污染程度次之,地质累积指数为-0.407～1.644,71%的采样点级别为1级,属无污染到中污染;Cd污染变异程度最大,地质累积指数为-2.705～3.312,70%的采样点级别0级,属无污染,但个别采样点达到了强污染;Cu的地质累积指数为-0.535～0.421,Pb为-1.119～-0.144,Cr为-1.005～-0.458,As为-0.562～0.077,除个别点外这些重金属污染级别皆为0级,属无污染。     

灰色关联度法和距离判别分析法在溪洛渡库区潜在滑坡判识中的应用

以溪洛渡库区深入研究的14个典型滑坡为研究对象,在初步建立潜在滑坡判识指标的基础上,运用灰色关联度理论优选确定了影响库区潜在滑坡孕育的8个关键主控因素:坡面平均坡度、滑体内冲沟切割程度、洼地封闭状况(或排水条件)、滑面平均倾角、滑面形态、下滑段长度与总滑面长度之比、滑体结构及近期活动迹象,并依据距离判别分析的理论和方法,建立了溪洛渡库区潜在滑坡的距离判识模型。该判识模型对库区5个待判滑坡样本和9个滑坡学习样本的判识准确率均达到了100%。     

支持向量回归机在滑坡安全可靠度评价中的应用研究

探讨支持向量机的参数优化方法,将学习能力较强的支持向量机引入滑坡可靠度评价当中,并根据数理统计的理论,对滑坡稳定性敏感性因素作数据处理,并证明其合理性,在此基础上提出一种改进的可靠度指标的计算方法。为便于对比,分别选取49个学习样本和121个学习样本两种计算模型,计算实例表明,这两种计算模型与蒙特卡洛模型计算结果非常接近,充分体现了在小样本的情形下支持向量机的优势,说明将其应用于滑坡安全可靠度评价中是可行的。     

煤层底板原位综合测试及突水危险性评估

在实施井下钻孔水压致裂地应力测量的同时,评价岩层阻水性能,确定导升带高度,做到一孔多用。测试区实际观测表明,泥岩、粉砂岩、中砂岩、灰岩阻水性能由大到小,导升高度则由小变大,平均导升高度约32m; 地应力测量表明,该测试区原始地应力状态为SH＞Sv＞Sh,最大水平主应力方向NE至NEE。突水临界指数评价表明,-550m水平采煤工作面掘进时突水的可能性较大,应当采取防范措施。     

应用等性块段指数法划分新场井田的构造类型

介绍了等性块段指数法定量划分井田构造类型的基本原理。利用该法对筠连矿区新场井田的构造类型进行定量评价,得出该井田构造指数为1．98,属中等构造,证明原勘探所定构造类型基本正确。     

基于“S”规律的中国钢需求预测

本文基于人均钢消费量与人均GDP“S”形规律, 对典型发达国家工业化过程钢消费量峰值年份进行截面分析, 并依据我国经济增长发展目标厘定高、参考及低三种方案, 解析中国未来钢需求, 结论是: 按高增长方案, 我国人均钢消费峰值点将在2015年到达, 届时人均钢消费量480～500千克, 消费总量6.7～7亿吨; 按参考方案, 我国人均钢消费峰值点将在2015-2016年到达, 届时人均钢消费量430～470千克, 消费总量为6～6.5亿吨; 按低增长方案, 我国人均钢消费峰值点将在2017-2018年到达, 届时人均钢消费量400～440千克, 消费总量为5.6～6.1亿吨。     

Palaeoenvironments and weathering regime of the Neoproterozoic Squantum ‘Tillite’, Boston Basin: no evidence of a snowball Earth

The snowball Earth hypothesis describes episodes of Neoproterozoic global glaciations, when ice sheets reached sea‐level, the ocean froze to great depth and biota were decimated, accompanied by a complete shutdown of the hydrological cycle. Recent studies of sedimentary successions and Earth systems modelling, however, have brought the hypothesis under considerable debate. The Squantum ‘Tillite’ (Boston Basin, USA), is one of the best constrained snowball Earth successions with respect to age and palaeogeography, and it is suitable to test the hypothesis for the Gaskiers glaciation. The approach used here was to assess the palaeoenvironmental conditions at the type locality of the Squantum Member through an analysis of sedimentary facies and weathering regime (chemical index of alteration). The stratigraphic succession with a total thickness of ca 330 m documents both glacial and non‐glacial depositional environments with a cool‐temperate glacial to temperate non‐glacial climate weathering regime. The base of the succession is composed of thin diamictites and mudstones that carry evidence of sedimentation from floating glacial ice, interbedded with inner shelf sandstones and mudstones. Thicker diamictites interbedded with thin sandstones mark the onset of gravity flow activity, followed by graded sandstones documenting channellized mass gravity flow events. An upward decrease in terrigenous supply is evident, culminating in deep‐water mudstones with a non‐glacial chemical weathering signal. Renewed terrigenous supply and iceberg sedimentation is evident at the top of the succession, beyond which exposure is lost. The glacially influenced sedimentary facies at Squantum Head are more consistent with meltwater dominated alpine glaciation or small local ice caps. The chemical index of alteration values of 61 to 75 for the non‐volcanic rocks requires significant exposure of land surfaces to allow chemical weathering. Therefore, extreme snowball Earth conditions with a complete shutdown of the hydrological cycle do not seem to apply to the Gaskiers glaciation.     

地球化学图相似性定量评价方法

比较不同实验室分析数据制作的虚拟地球化学图的相似性,是近几年提出的化探分析质量监控与评价的新方法,但"目视比较法"只能得到模糊定性的结论。文章引入FFP评价原理,根据图形重叠性计算图形相似指数,据此定量评价地球化学图的相似性,使地球化学图相似性研究从定性分析上升为定量判断水平。该评价方法可进一步推广应用于元素分布、环境污染时空变化研究。