运用动态谐波回归模型对MODIS叶面积指数时间序列产品的分析与预测

运用动态谐波回归模型(Dynamic Harmonic Regression,DHR)对MODIS的长时间序列的LAI产品进行分析,可以从中分离出LAI随时间变化的多年趋势、季节变化及残差等主要成分,通过建立的模型实现LAI年间变化的短时预测。本文将所述DHR模型分析方法试用于遥感数据产品随时间变化的信息提取,对LAI年间变化的预测结果证明该方法用于遥感像元尺度LAI产品的时间序列分析与预测的效果良好。     

Effects of differing coverage of moss‐dominated soil crusts on hydrological processes and implications for disturbance in the Mu Us Sandland,China

To study the effects of biological soil crusts (BSCs) on hydrological processes and their implications for disturbance in the Mu Us Sandland, the water infiltration, evaporation and soil moisture of high coverage (100% BSCs), middle coverage (40% BSCs) and low coverage (0% BSCs, bare sand) of moss‐dominated crusts were conducted in this study, respectively. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the main effects of moss‐dominated crusts in the Mu Us Sandland on the infiltration of rainwater were to reduce the infiltration depths and to retain the limited rainwater in shallow soil; (2) moss‐dominated crusts have no significant effects on daily evaporation when the volumetric water content at 4 cm depth in 100% BSCs (VWC4) was over 24.7%, on enhanced daily evaporation when the VWC4 ranged from 6.5% to 24.7% and on reduced daily evaporation when the VWC4 was less than 6.5%; and (3) decreasing the coverage of moss‐dominated crusts (from 100% to 40%) did not significantly change its effects on infiltration, evaporation and soil moisture. Our results demonstrated that for the growth and regeneration of shrubs, which were dominated by Artemisia ordosica in the Mu Us Sandland, high coverage of moss‐dominated crusts has negative effects on hydrological processes, and these negative effects could not be significantly reduced by decreasing the coverage of moss‐dominated crusts from 100% to 40%. Therefore, for the sustained and healthy development of shrub communities in the Mu Us Sandland, it is necessary to take appropriate measures for the well‐developed BSCs in the sites with high vegetation coverage in the rainy season. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long-term effects of a toxic algal bloom on subtidal soft-sediment macroinvertebrate communities in Wellington Harbour, New Zealand

The long-term effects (>1 year) of a naturally occurring toxic plankton bloom (Karenia brevisulcata) on subtidal benthic macroinvertebrate communities were investigated in Wellington Harbour, a semi-enclosed temperate embayment in New Zealand. For 3 years communities were sampled at three different sites in the harbour. Analyses revealed that community recovery following the bloom was site-specific. Multivariate analyses indicated that at one site community composition was approaching recovery 3 years post-bloom. At the second site, a sequential recovery process was indicated, whereas at the third site the community composition oscillated from year to year, but did not show any signs of a sequential recovery process. The nature of the hydrodynamic regime was identified as a major factor influencing the observed recovery processes. Communities exposed to an active hydrodynamic regime were less affected by the bloom and differed little in their composition pre- and post-bloom, as they were naturally in a perpetual state of recovery as indicated by a dominance of r-selected species. The community at the hydrodynamically less active site was more affected by the bloom and exhibited temporal differences in composition consistent with successional models. Complete recovery to a pre-disturbance climax community dominated by K-selected species is likely to take 4–5 years, if not interrupted by other disturbances. Given the increased occurrence of harmful algal blooms worldwide, more monitoring and manipulative studies are needed to further evaluate the effects of such disturbances on macrobenthic communities.     

中国农业干旱脆弱性分区研究

根据各地水资源的特点、农业受旱成灾的情况及水利设施抗旱能力,确定农业干旱脆弱性分区的原则和指标,构造层次分析模型。应用MapInfo6.0软件绘制了中国农业干旱脆弱性分区图,结果表明:在全国340个农业干旱脆弱性分区中,极严重脆弱区47个,严重脆弱区104个,一般脆弱区175个,轻度脆弱区14个。     

基于模糊集分析的土壤质量指标高光谱反演

通过对横山县84个土样350~2 500 nm波段的光谱曲线分析,进行土壤质量12项指标的光谱反演。为获得有效光谱反演指标,利用单相关分析方法计算土壤质量指标与光谱反射率的相关系数并绘制相关系数曲线,根据极大相关性选择最佳波段作为光谱反演指标;剔除异常样本后,利用模糊识别理论建立土壤质量指标反演模型,通过优化得到模型的最佳参数。土壤质量12项指标光谱反演模型的平均检验误差均小于15%,说明模型的精度较高。     

近40年东亚夏季风及我国夏季大尺度天气气候异常

定义了一个反映东亚夏季大尺度季风强度的指数，计算了夏季逐月及季的东亚季风指数（1873～1989年）。用近40年资料研究了东亚夏季风与我国夏季大尺度天气的关系。指出，强夏季风时，我国夏季大范围高温。东亚夏季风与我国夏季降水的关系则表现在夏季雨带的南北位置上。强夏季风时，雨带偏北。夏季雨带位置偏南均与弱季风有关。长江中下游夏季的涝年与弱季风有关，而强夏季风时，长江中下游经常是旱年。最后，研究了强、弱夏季风年时的北半球500 hPa环流异常特征，结果表明，东亚夏季风强度是造成我国夏季气温、降水异常的主要原因。     

A study of tropospheric wave disturbances over India in winter

The wave disturbances in the troposphere over north and central India during winter when the subtropical westerlies prevail in the upper air over the area have been investigated by power-and cross-spectrum analysis. The power-spectrum study revealed the existence of basically two systems of periods 10.0–12.5 days and 4.5–5.5 days in the middle and upper troposphere. Both the long-and short-period systems have been found to be propagating eastwards at rates 5° and 10° long./day respectively. In both the cases lower temperatures are found to the east of the troughs. It is also noted that these systems build up the meridional temperature gradient and hence strengthen the upper tropospheric westerlies. Synoptic study of the transient systems is presented.     

气候因素变化对许昌烟区的影响及适应性分析

分析了许昌烟区1971—2005年4个年代气候因素变化特点,采用隶属度函数模型和指数和法,估算了许昌各县（市）的气候适生性指数（CFI）,并对其变化原因进行了分析。结果表明：不同年代各县（市）的CFI均在0．80以上,表明各县（市）均属烤烟生产气候适宜区。从4个年代CFI的均值来看,许昌县〉长葛〉襄城〉禹州〉鄢陵;从4个年代CFI变异程度来看,禹州〉长葛〉襄城〉鄢陵〉许昌县。各县（市）不同年代的CFI均呈“低-高-高-低”变化趋势;20世纪80年代以来,许昌县、襄城、长葛、禹州的CFI值及变化趋势基本一致,均明显高于鄢陵。80年代至21世纪初鄢陵的气候适生性指数明显低于其他县（市）,与伸根期温度相对较低,旺长期和成熟期多雨、高湿有关。     

1951-2008年辽宁冰雹的时空分布特征

选取1951-2008年辽宁省56个站气象资料和中国气象灾害大典等资料,对冰雹时空分布进行了统计分析。结果表明：辽宁冰雹日数以山地为最多,丘陵次之,平原和沿海最少。移动路径基本与山脉、河流、海岸线等地形走向一致。冰雹具有明显的季节变化,主要出现在4-10月。5-6月为冰雹多发期,6月为最多,5月次之。近30a辽宁省年冰雹日数呈减少趋势。冰雹发生主要集中在中午至傍晚。辽西走廊、辽宁中部平原及辽东半岛南部大连地区为冰雹灾害重点防御区。产生冰雹的天气系统按高空形势分类主要有4种：冷涡、冷涡后部横槽、高空槽和槽后西北气流,对应地面形势多为低压冷锋。