我国陆相中高熟页岩油富集条件与分布特征

我国相继在多个盆地陆相页岩油勘探中获得突破,展示了良好的发展前景。基于现阶段勘探认识,本文认为陆相页岩油富集主要条件是：(1)稳定且有规模和适宜热成熟度的富有机质页岩是重要物质基础,以TOC含量>2%,最佳为3%～4%、母质类型Ⅰ和Ⅱ₁型为主,R_o>0.9%或更高(咸化环境0.8%);(2)有一定容积规模的微纳米孔隙且具脆性的多类储层是重要条件,页岩储层有效孔隙度宜>3%～6%;成岩阶段偏低时,纯页岩段不是中高熟页岩油富集段,致密砂岩和混积岩黏土含量宜<20%;成岩阶段高时,页岩黏土含量可高至40%左右;(3)滞留烃数量大且品质好是重要保证,以S₁>2 mg/g为门限,最佳>4～6 mg/g;气油比>80 m³/m³,最佳150～300 m³/m³;(4)顶底板具封闭性保持超压且滞留足够多轻-中组分烃类。陆相页岩油分布特征是：(1)有外物质注入的深-半深湖相是页岩油主要富集区;(2)具备“四高...     

当代世界汽车工业地域结构变化的新趋向

汽车工业是世界最重要的产业部门之一，其发展已近一个世纪，并始终处于不断创新、发展壮大的进程中，被视为“朝阳产业”。本文在回顾汽车工业发展历史的基础上，从宏观的角度着重分析了当代汽车生产的三足鼎立局面，以及跨国生产及战略东移的新趋向。     

基于火山岩氧化系数分布特征的火山喷发环境判识——以三塘湖盆地马朗凹陷牛圈湖-牛东构造带上石炭统为例

受火山喷发沉积环境(陆上或水下)及岩浆酸度等因素的影响,火山喷发物的地球化学特征有很大差异,准确判识火山喷发环境是火山岩油气储层性质评价的重要地质依据。本文基于三塘湖盆地马朗凹陷牛圈湖-牛东构造带上石炭统58件火山岩样品主量元素地球化学数据,采用Fe₂O₃与FeO比值作为氧化系数,利用数理统计方法投点,根据上石炭统哈尔加乌组和卡拉岗组火山岩氧化系数分布特征判识其喷发沉积环境。统计结果表明,卡拉岗组34件样品氧化系数介于0.55～5.00,数值主要分布于1.0～3.0,说明火山喷发沉积环境复杂,非单纯的氧化环境;从部分单井垂向分布来看,氧化系数具有随埋深由深至浅呈明显增大的趋势,表示由弱还原环境逐渐向强氧化环境过渡。哈尔加乌组24件岩芯样品氧化系数介于0.25～0.94,数值主要集中于0.2～0.4,表明火山喷发沉积于贫氧的还原环境;从单井垂向分布来看,氧化系数受埋深影响极小,表示火山喷发沉积受水动力条件境影响小,沉积环境具有一定的水体深度。研究调研筛选了国内10个不同盆地108件火山岩样品数据资料,并充分考虑酸度对火山岩氧化系数的影响,建立了...     

Job losses and political acceptability of climate policies: why the ‘job-killing’ argument is so persistent and how to overturn it

Political acceptability is an essential issue in choosing appropriate climate policies. Sociologists and behavioural scientists recognize the importance of selecting environmental policies that have broad political support, while economists tend to compare different instruments first on the basis of their efficiency, and then by assessing their distributional impacts and thus their political acceptability. This paper examines case-study and empirical evidence that the job losses ascribed (correctly or incorrectly) to climate policies have substantial impacts on the willingness of affected workers to support these policies. In aggregate, the costs of these losses are significantly smaller than the benefits, both in terms of health and, probably, of labour market outcomes, but the losses are concentrated in specific areas, sectors and social groups that have been hit hard by the great recession and international competition. Localized contextual effects, such as peer group pressure, and politico-economic factors, such as weakened unions and tightened government budgets, amplify the strength and the persistence of the ‘job-killing’ argument. Compensating for the effects of climate policies on ‘left-behind’ workers appears to be the key priority to increase the political acceptability of such policies, but the design of compensatory policies poses serious challenges.

Key policy insights

• Public perception of, and support for, climate policies is substantially reduced in the presence of large negative shocks, especially job losses.

• Climate policies can be perceived as negative for employment, especially in areas where polluting industries represent a large share of employment and in occupations and sectors already damaged by globalization and automation.

• Policymakers should distinguish between small and large distributional effects of climate policies, and find the appropriate combination of revenue recycling schemes, industrial and retraining policies as well as compensation packages to increase the support for such policies.

     

太湖河蚬时空格局

2006年12月-2007年11月对太湖河蚬种群进行了周年逐月调查.河蚬在分布区的年均密度和生物量分别为265.7ind./m2和100.9g/m2,在夏、秋季均达到高值.根据壳长频数分布的周年变化,太湖河蚬一年一代,繁殖期主要在5-7月份.河蚬主要分布在贡湖湾、马迹山以南区域、西南湖区和小梅港沿岸区域.分析表明,太湖中河蚬的空间分布表现出明显的差异性,这种差异性受到多种因素的综合影响.在北部梅梁湾和竺山湾湖区湖泊中的低溶氧量是限制河蚬生长的最重要因素;在贡湖湾、马迹山以南湖区和西南部湖区,各种生境条件和底质性质适合河蚬的生长繁殖,其密度和生物量的最高值出现在贡湖湾的中心区域(820.0ind./m2,522.9g/m2);在东太湖湖区浮游植物密度较低,底质中有机质较少,食物来源是影响河蚬分布的较重要因素.     

海口市风暴潮分布特征与影响因子探析

基于1980—2017年实测潮位等资料,运用统计分析和数值模拟方法研究了海口市风暴潮分布特征与影响因子。结果表明：海口市受风暴潮影响较频繁,年均2.79次,通常发生在7—10月,且风暴潮引发的潮灾概率较大;风暴增水平面分布表现为：东寨港风暴增水强度位居第一,其次是秀英港,第三是海甸岛,南港增水相对较弱。影响因子体现为：地形的权重通常比热带气旋移动路径更大;热带气旋移动速度对海口市风暴增水有明显影响,移动速度为14~19 km/h时,风暴增水往往达到最大。     

Polydorid polychaetes (Spionidae) on farmed and wild abalone (Haliotis midae) in South Africa: an epidemiological survey

Although there has been an increase in our understanding of the shell-boring polydorids that infest abalone Haliotis midae in South Africa, abalone from a limited number of farms, and wild populations from east of Cape Agulhas only, have been examined. To gain further knowledge and a more complete understanding of the local distribution of polydorids, we examined up to 30 abalone from each of 14 farms in the Northern, Western and Eastern Cape provinces, and five wild sites in the Western Cape, west of Cape Agulhas. Farm and wild communities were significantly different from each other (ANOSIM, r = 0.632, p < 0.002) and Bray–Curtis cluster analysis showed that most farms clustered separately from wild sites. Boccardia proboscidea was present on all but one of the infested farms, whereas some were also infested by Dipolydora capensis. By contrast, D. capensis was present at all wild sites sampled, whereas B. proboscidea was absent from these sites. Polydora hoplura, a common shell-boring pest, was present at only two farms and two wild sites. There appeared to be some exchange of polydorids among farms and between farms and wild abalone. The farm on the East Coast did not cluster with any other sites, indicating a unique composition of polydorids on that coast. No new, potentially problematic, species was encountered, although four species showed an increase in their known distribution.     

辽东湾北部沿岸海水入侵灾害成因及特征

海水入侵是在自然和人为因素的作用下形成的地质灾害。分析了辽东湾北部沿岸29个观测井内7种主要离子质量浓度,阐述了辽东湾北部沿岸海(咸)水入侵的主要方式和分布特征。气候、地形地貌、地质与水文地质是发生海(咸)水入侵的基础条件,地下水超采等人类不合理工程和经济活动是诱发海(咸)水入侵的主要原因。     

辽宁区域海洋经济布局机理与可持续发展研究

通过对辽宁海洋资源的评价,海洋经济发展、海洋产业部门结构和海洋产业布局特点等的分析,并根据海域资源差异、区域海洋经济结构差异、海洋产业分布状况等,划分出辽宁渤海海洋经济区和黄海海洋经济区。探讨了区域海洋经济区的形成与区域海洋经济布局机理。采用定性与定量相结合、从定性到定量的研究方法,应用层次分析法确定辽宁海洋经济区的发展方向与重点海洋产业部门,提出了辽宁区域海洋经济可持续发展的对策和措施     

中国假木贼属(Anabasis)的地理分布及潜在分布区预测

基于最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和地理信息系统,结合中国假木贼属（Anabasis）7个种的地理分布记录及19个环境因子,预测这7个种的潜在分布区及该属的分布中心,并分析其主导环境因子。采用受试者工作特征曲线下面积作为模型预测准确度的衡量指标,刀切法用于评估各环境因子在决定潜在分布区时的贡献量。结果显示：（1）白垩假木贼（A.cretacea）、高枝假木贼（A.elatior）、毛足假木贼（A.eriopoda）、无叶假木贼（A.aphylla）、盐生假木贼（A.salsa）和展枝假木贼（A.truncata）的潜在适生区集中在新疆北部、天山南麓及塔里木盆地西侧,短叶假木贼（A.brevifolia）的潜在适生区在新疆、甘肃、宁夏和内蒙古的部分地区。（2）中国假木贼属的分布中心在新疆准噶尔盆地、天山南麓、塔里木盆地西侧及甘肃西北部的河西走廊。（3）在19个环境因子中,对中国假木贼属这7个种分布区预测贡献量较大的生态因子是年平均气温、最湿月降水量、最干季度平均温度、平均降水量、最冷季度降水量、年均温变化范围和最湿季度降水量。