ON THE OPTIMAL BACKGROUND ERROR COVARIANCES: DIFFERENT SCALE ERRORS’ CONTRIBUTION

The large-scale and small-scale errors could affect background error covariances for a regional numerical model with the specified grid resolution.Based on the different background error covariances influenced by different scale errors,this study tries to construct a so-called"optimal background error covariances"to consider the interactions among different scale errors.For this purpose,a linear combination of the forecast differences influenced by information of errors at different scales is used to construct the new forecast differences for estimating optimal background error covariances.By adjusting the relative weight of the forecast differences influenced by information of smaller-scale errors,the relative influence of different scale errors on optimal background error covariances can be changed.For a heavy rainfall case,the corresponding optimal background error covariances can be estimated through choosing proper weighting factor for forecast differences influenced by information of smaller-scale errors.The data assimilation and forecast with these optimal covariances show that,the corresponding analyses and forecasts can lead to superior quality,compared with those using covariances that just introduce influences of larger-or smallerscale errors.Due to the interactions among different scale errors included in optimal background error covariances,relevant analysis increments can properly describe weather systems(processes)at different scales,such as dynamic lifting,thermodynamic instability and advection of moisture at large scale,high-level and low-level jet at synoptic scale,and convective systems at mesoscale and small scale,as well as their interactions.As a result,the corresponding forecasts can be improved.     

浙江省分钟降水自记纸信息化数据与人工读取数据的对比及适用性分析

为了探讨信息化分钟降水自记纸数据在短历时时段下的适应能力,对比评估了1980-2000年浙江省19个国家基本（准）站信息化后的分钟降水自记纸数据和同期人工读取降水数据。利用滑动求和的方法提取信息化分钟降水不同历时下每年最大降水量,并使用偏差百分率、方差比、偏差概率、相关分析等统计方法,对比分析了信息化后的分钟降水自记数据与人工读取数据的时空特征差异及信息化数据的适用性。研究结果表明：信息化后的分钟降水数据与人工观测数据的结果在整体及单次降水过程中的表现较为一致,数值上整体略偏小,相关系数达到0.99。30min以上历时信息化后分钟数据与人工校核数据非常接近,且稳定性很高。信息化后分钟数据计算结果比人工读取结果更为客观,可以较好地代替人工读取结果的同时,有效地弥补了自动气象站建站之前逐分钟降水资料记录的空缺,为计算暴雨强度公式、设计暴雨雨型等需要长时间序列分钟降水的研究工作奠定了基础。     

煅烧改性净水厂污泥对底泥内源磷释放的控制效果

以自主研发的煅烧改性净水厂污泥（C-WTPS）作为污染底泥活性覆盖材料,室内静态模拟实验研究C-WTPS覆盖强度对控制底泥磷释放效果的影响,分析C-WTPS和底泥中不同形态磷含量变化,探讨C-WTPS薄层覆盖对上覆水体中pH、DO和ORP的影响.结果表明,实验历时40天,在底泥TP释放强度为6.25~10.87 mg/（m²·d）时,覆盖强度为0.25、0.50、1.00、1.50和2.00 kg/m²的C-WTPS对TP平均削减率分别为59.68%、75.71%、88.75%、92.42%和96.28%,可见覆盖强度为1.00 kg/m²以上的C-WTPS能控制底泥中90%以上TP释放.C-WTPS吸附的磷主要以无机磷（IP）中的铁铝结合态磷（NAIP）形式存在,有机磷（OP）和钙磷（AP）形式较少.C-WTPS促进了底泥中易释放形态磷迁移到C-WTPS中,并转化较为稳定的形态磷,可见C-WTP覆盖不仅控制了底泥磷释放,而且也削减了底泥磷释放风险.C-WTPS覆盖后,上覆水体中pH开始呈现下降趋势,最终维持在pH=7范围波动;C-WTPS覆盖强度越大,上覆水体pH下降也明显;C-WTPS覆盖改善上覆水体中DO和ORP环境的效果不明显.     

垂直流人工湿地对尾水的净化效果及最佳水力负荷

以污水厂尾水为处理对象,研究垂直流人工湿地在4种水力负荷(125、250、375和500 mm/d)条件下的周年净化效果,结果表明:秋季时系统的总氮去除率最高,冬季则显著降低;温度为10℃、溶解氧浓度为1.1 mg/L是反硝化强度显著降低的关键拐点;总磷在冬季较其他季节净化效果高;125 mm/d水力负荷下CODCr去除率显著高于其他水力负荷,冬季CODCr去除率显著降低,而其他水力负荷及季节下的去除效果没有显著差异;当湿地以高去除率为目标时,最佳水力负荷为125 mm/d;当湿地以地表水水环境质量Ⅴ类标准为目标时,最佳水力负荷为375 mm/d;当湿地以污染物去除量为目标时,最佳水力负荷为500 mm/d.综合推荐375 mm/d为最佳水力负荷.     

营口-潍坊断裂带新生代走滑拉分-裂陷盆地伸展量、沉降量估算

应用通过营口—潍坊断裂带及相关新生代盆地的地震剖面,采用专业软件分别计算了潍北凹陷、青东凹陷、莱州湾凹陷、黄河口凹陷、渤中凹陷、渤东凹陷、辽中凹陷和辽东凹陷的伸展量及构造沉降量,表明虽然同受断裂带走滑和软流圈上涌控制,但不同区段新生代伸展作用方向、主要发生时间和强度都有差别。南段是南北方向伸展,伸展作用主要发生在古新-始新世孔店组—沙河街组三段沉积时期;中段渤中—辽东湾南部地区具有多向伸展特征,近东西方向和南北方向伸展作用最为强烈,主要伸展作用发生在中-晚始新世、渐新世和新近纪,特别是以新近纪强烈伸展作用区别于其它地区;北段即辽东湾中-北部地区主要是北西—南东方向伸展,主要伸展活动发生在中始新世沙河街组三段和渐新世东营组沉积时期。文章总结了4种不同类型的沉降,指出新生代的构造活动随时间有自南向北推移和自两侧向中间迁移的规律,提出不同方向断裂带的活化和新近纪北东东向新生构造的形成是裂陷强度向中间迁移并产生4种不同沉降类型盆地的原因。     

Lacustrine Sedimentary Organic Matter Records of Late Quaternary Paleoclimates

Identification of the sources of organic matter in sedimentary records provides important paleolimnologic information. As the types and abundances of plant life in and around lakes change, the composition and amount of organic matter delivered to lake sediments changes. Despite the extensive early diagenetic losses of organic matter in general and of some of its important biomarker compounds in particular, bulk identifiers of organic matter sources appear to undergo minimal alteration after sedimentation. Age-related changes in the elemental, isotopic, and petrographic compositions of bulk sedimentary organic matter therefore preserve evidence of past environmental changes.We review different bulk organic matter proxies of climate change in tropical and temperate sedimentary records ranging in age from 10-500 ka. Times of wetter climate result in enhanced algal productivity in lakes as a consequence of greater wash-in of soil nutrients, and these periods are recorded as elevated Rock-Eval hydrogen indices, lowered organic C/N ratios, less negative organic 13C values, and increased organic carbon mass accumulation rates. Lowering of lake water levels, which typically depresses algal productivity, can also cause an apparent increase in organic carbon mass accumulation rates through suspension of sediments from lake margins and redeposition in deeper basins. Alternations between C3 and C4 watershed plants accompany climate changes such as glacial/interglacial transitions and wet/dry cycles, and these changes in land-plant types are evident in 13C values of organic matter in lake sediments. Changes in climate-driven hydrologic balances of lakes are recorded in D values of sedimentary organic matter. Visual microscopic examination of organic matter detritus is particularly useful in identifying changes in bulk organic matter delivery to lake sediments and therefore is important as an indicator of climate changes.     

Mechanisms of slip nucleation during earthquakes

Slip nucleation during earthquakes is apparently analogous to rupture nucleation within an intact rock sample subjected to triaxial loading. The observations indicate that both these nucleation processes initiate within a relatively small volume and in both the slip propagates unstably along a quasi-planar surface. In both processes a single, pre-existing, shear fracture cannot nucleate the large-scale slip, and in both a ‘process zone' that includes several interacting fractures in a small volume are required to initiate the unstable slip. Both processes require rupture of intact rocks, generate complex fracture geometry, and are associated with intense energy-release rate during slip. Recent observations and analyses are used to correlate rupture nucleation in laboratory tests with nucleation events of large earthquakes. It is proposed that earthquake nucleation occurs by the interaction among multiple fractures within a small volume that develops into unstable yielding of the healed fault zone.     

甘肃及其邻区强震发生的倍九日关系

在自然界中以倍九日为时间特征的现象很多,如地球自转中有9 d 周期,日月引潮力中有9 d 周期,地磁活动中有9 d 周期,天气韵律中的9 d 周期等等.因之强震发生时间可能被这些因素调制和触发,故亦带上倍九日期的时间特点.这对临震预报是有参考价值的.本文以甘肃及其附近地区强震的发生日期论证了倍九律的客观存在性.     

Iron and inorganic carbon in Liaodong Gulf sediments of Bohai Sea in China

1Introduction Ithasbeenapprovedthatoceanisthenetsink foratmosphericcarbondioxide(Sabineetal.,2000;Milleretal.,2002;Takahashietal.,2002;DeGrandpreetal.,2002;Song,2004).Thereare twoprincipalwaysinwhichcarbonisdrawndown fromthesurfaceocean:thereductionofinor…