鲁西南大气降水与农田需水的供求状况及变化趋势

应用彭曼(Penman)法,并考虑对不同作物发育阶段的订正,估算了鲁西南地区的农田需水量。通过农田需水量与有效降水量差值分析,对二者的供求状况进行了评估。同时还分析了1961～2002年降水量和农田需水量的历史资料序列,发现二者都呈递减趋势,且递减的速度较为接近。     

黄土高原多沙粗沙区作物水分供需状况评价

采用最大可能蒸散、作物实际蒸散、水分盈亏、水分订正系数评价了黄土高原多沙粗沙区主要作物(春小麦、冬小麦、春玉米、夏玉米和棉花)和草地生长季水分供需状况,结果表明,需水量:冬小麦>棉花>春玉米>春小麦>夏玉米;水分订正系数:春玉米>夏玉米>棉花>春小麦>冬小麦。草地需水量为350～450mm,水分订正系数0.95以上,水分供需矛盾小,实施退耕还牧无论对缓解水资源短缺,还是改善生态环境,在黄土高原多沙粗沙区都是十分有效的措施。     

海平面上升背景下上海市长江口水源地供水安全风险评估及对策

分析和甄别上海市需水系统和长江口水源地供水系统风险因子,建立基于水资源供需平衡的上海市水源地供水安全风险评估模型,并采用系统动力学预测模型和高分辨率非正交曲线网格移动潮滩边界的长江河口盐水入侵三维数值模型,分别计算分析2030年人口增长、径流减少和海平面上升等3种风险因子叠加作用下的上海市需水量与长江口陈行、东风西沙和青草沙3个水源地的可供原水量,并进行供需比较分析和供水安全风险评估。结果表明：在海平面分别上升10和25 cm、枯季平均径流和没有新增水源条件下,2020年的缺水量分别为39万和74万m³/d,特枯水文年供水能力降低19万m³/d;若新增没冒沙水源300万m³/d,可缓解上海市2020年的缺水状况。     

A physically-based model of long-term food demand

Reducing hunger while staying within planetary boundaries of pollution, land use and fresh water use is one of the most urgent sustainable development goals. It is imperative to understand future food demand, the agricultural system, and the interactions with other natural and human systems. Studying such interactions in the long-term future is often done with Integrated Assessment Modelling. In this paper we develop a new food demand model to make projections several decades ahead, having 46 detailed food categories and population segmented by income and urban vs rural. The core of our model is a set of relationships between income and dietary patterns, with differences between regions and income inequalities within a region. Hereby we take a different, more long-term-oriented approach than elasticity-based macro-economic models (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Partial Equilibrium (PE) models). The physical and detailed nature of our model allows for fine-grained scenario exploration. We first apply the model to the newly developed Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, and then to additional sustainable development scenarios of food waste reduction and dietary change. We conclude that total demand for crops and grass could increase roughly 35–165% between 2010 and 2100, that this future demand growth can be tempered more effectively by replacing animal products than by reducing food waste, and that income-based consumption inequality persists and is a contributing factor to our estimate that 270 million people could still be undernourished in 2050.     

When enough should be enough: Improving the use of current agricultural lands could meet production demands and spare natural habitats in Brazil

Providing food and other products to a growing human population while safeguarding natural ecosystems and the provision of their services is a significant scientific, social and political challenge. With food demand likely to double over the next four decades, anthropization is already driving climate change and is the principal force behind species extinction, among other environmental impacts. The sustainable intensification of production on current agricultural lands has been suggested as a key solution to the competition for land between agriculture and natural ecosystems. However, few investigations have shown the extent to which these lands can meet projected demands while considering biophysical constraints. Here we investigate the improved use of existing agricultural lands and present insights into avoiding future competition for land. We focus on Brazil, a country projected to experience the largest increase in agricultural production over the next four decades and the richest nation in terrestrial carbon and biodiversity. Using various models and climatic datasets, we produced the first estimate of the carrying capacity of Brazil's 115 million hectares of cultivated pasturelands. We then investigated if the improved use of cultivated pasturelands would free enough land for the expansion of meat, crops, wood and biofuel, respecting biophysical constraints (i.e., terrain, climate) and including climate change impacts. We found that the current productivity of Brazilian cultivated pasturelands is 32–34% of its potential and that increasing productivity to 49–52% of the potential would suffice to meet demands for meat, crops, wood products and biofuels until at least 2040, without further conversion of natural ecosystems. As a result up to 14.3 Gt CO₂ Eq could be mitigated. The fact that the country poised to undergo the largest expansion of agricultural production over the coming decades can do so without further conversion of natural habitats provokes the question whether the same can be true in other regional contexts and, ultimately, at the global scale.     

Ecological water demand of natural vegetation in the lower Tarim River

We have appraised the relationships between soil moisture, groundwater depth, and plant species diversity in the lower reaches of the Tarim River in western China, by analyzing field data from 25 monitoring wells across eight study sites and 25 permanent vegetation survey plots. It is noted that groundwater depth, soil moisture and plant species diversity are closely related. It has been proven that the critical phreatic water depth is five meters in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. We acquired the mean phreatic evaporation of different groundwater levels every month by averaging the two results of phreatic evaporation using the Qunk and Averyanov formulas. Based on different vegetation types and acreage with different groundwater depth, the total ecological water demand (EWD) of natural vegetation in 2005 was 2.4×108 m3 in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. Analyzing the monthly EWD, we found that the EWD in the growth season (from April to September) is 81% of the year’s total EWD. The EWD in May, June and July was 47% of the year’s total EWD, which indicates the best time for dispensing artificial water. This research aims at realizing the sustainable development of water resources and provides a scientific basis for water resource management and sound collocation of the Tarim River Basin.     

气象部门人事管理岗位培训需求研究

干部教育培训是干部队伍建设的先导性、基础性、战略性工程。加强气象部门人事管理岗位培训需求研究,对于提高气象部门组织人事工作水平具有重要意义。文章引入气象培训需求分析模型,从战略和组织分析、任务分析、人员分析、人口统计分析和区域差异分析五个方面进行培训需求分析,探索建立了气象部门人事管理岗位培训需求要素体系,为培训提供相关建议。     

全球铂族金属资源分布、供需及消费格局

中国铂族元素(Platinum group elements, PGEs)矿产资源的需求量呈现不断增加的趋势, 对外依存度高达98%, 存在巨大的供应风险。从全球PGEs矿产资源的产出环境、分布特征和成因类型出发, 结合近10年全球PGEs矿产资源的开发与消费, 研判中国PGEs产业链的消费形势和供需格局, 深入分析世界和中国PGEs矿产资源的未来发展趋势, 提出保障中国PGEs资源安全供应的合理化建议, 以期实现PGEs资源的储量保障和合理配置。研究表明, ①全球PGEs资源储量稀缺, 空间分布集中, 主要分布在南非、津巴布韦、俄罗斯和北美等国家或地区, 中国探明PGEs资源量所占比重不足世界资源量的1%, 对外依存度高达98%;②全球PGEs矿床成因类型多样, 但以产于镁铁质—超镁铁质大火成岩省内的岩浆型PGEs矿床为主, 占全球PGEs矿床数量10%的大型—超大型矿床则占据了世界PGEs资源量的85%。③近3年, 全球和中国PGEs勘查工作进入低谷期, 新发现资源较少。未来10年全球供应量将不会呈现明显的增长。与此同时, 由于全球PGEs供应量主要被欧美、南非和俄罗斯等矿业寡头控制, 中国大型PGEs矿业企业国际竞争力相对较弱; ④未来10年中国PGEs需求量将高达160~185 t, 年均增长率约为2.67%, 建立战略储备、稳定全球供应和加强循环利用势在必行。     

江苏省水泥用灰岩资源供需形势和对策

水泥用灰岩矿是水泥工业的主要原料,对经济发展意义重大。从水泥灰岩资源及其开发现状着手,分析了江苏省水泥灰岩资源的供需形势,从而提出了合理配置水泥灰岩资源的6条对策和建议。     

我国矿产资源及矿产品供需形势与建议

为了让国内地质矿产勘查和矿业经济部门及时了解我国矿产资源及矿产品供需形势,介绍了“2006中国矿产资源及矿产品供需形势分析报告会”的内容要点。着重对2006年前三季度我国矿产品供需形势进行了深入分析。根据我国矿产资源的主要特点、矿产品供需形势及存在的问题,提出了若干建议。