Will American consumers pay more for eco-friendly labeled canned tuna? Estimating US consumer demand for canned tuna varieties using scanner data

This study estimates consumer demand for eco-friendly labeled canned tuna products in two distinct US marketing channels, conventional and natural supermarkets, to evaluate market-based incentives for conservation measures that affect fishing costs and retail prices. Using retail scanner data, this paper finds that US consumer demand for canned tuna varies depending on the species of tuna, what gear type was used, whether the can is sold in natural food or conventional supermarkets, and whether canned product is or is not certified as eco-friendly. The paper's main conclusions are that retail price premiums for eco-friendly products face upper limits due to consumer responses to higher prices, and are most effective when coupled with: (1) inelastic own-price elasticity of demand; (2) price premium signals that are transmitted from retail markets to raw material producers; and (3) limited retail consumption substitution possibilities with lower-priced conventional products that help maintain price premiums and that otherwise create conservation disincentives by increasing conventional supply. Results from this paper not only have unique implications for various forms of international tuna fisheries policy that incorporates or anticipates change in market behavior, but also could serve as a scientific reference to clarify the trade disputes.     

A framework for the evaluation of ground motion selection and modification procedures

This study develops a framework to evaluate ground motion selection and modification (GMSM) procedures. The context is probabilistic seismic demand analysis, where response history analyses of a given structure, using ground motions determined by a GMSM procedure, are performed in order to estimate the seismic demand hazard curve (SDHC) for the structure at a given site. Currently, a GMSM procedure is evaluated in this context by comparing several resulting estimates of the SDHC, each derived from a different definition of the conditioning intensity measure (IM). Using a simple case study, we demonstrate that conclusions from such an approach are not always definitive; therefore, an alternative approach is desirable. In the alternative proposed herein, all estimates of the SDHC from GMSM procedures are compared against a benchmark SDHC, under a common set of ground motion information. This benchmark SDHC is determined by incorporating a prediction model for the seismic demand into the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis calculations. To develop an understanding of why one GMSM procedure may provide more accurate estimates of the SDHC than another procedure, we identify the role of ‘IM sufficiency’ in the relationship between (i) bias in the SDHC estimate and (ii) ‘hazard consistency’ of the corresponding ground motions obtained from a GMSM procedure. Finally, we provide examples of how misleading conclusions may potentially be obtained from erroneous implementations of the proposed framework. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A distributed parameter model of a frame pin‐supported wall structure

Many reinforced‐concrete frames collapse via a soft‐story mechanism during severe earthquakes. Such collapses are mainly attributed to concentrated deformation in a soft story. Deformation control is thus important in preventing collapse. The frame pin‐supported wall structure is a type of rocking structure that releases constraints at the bottom of the wall. Previous research has obtained good results for the deformation control of this type of structure. However, the interior forces and strength demands of the pin‐supported wall have not been systematically explored. In this paper, a distributed parameter model is developed to investigate the strength demand of the wall in a frame pin‐supported wall structure. In the model, the pin‐supported wall is simplified as a bending beam and the frame is simplified as a shear beam. The two beams are joined by distributed shear connectors, so that the shear force can be transferred at any location on the interface. The model can be solved using differential equations based on equilibrium and compatibility. The accuracy of the model is verified using SAP2000 (Computers and Structures Inc., Berkeley, CA, USA). Displacement distribution of the structure and distributions of the moment and shear force within the pin‐supported wall are obtained for two typical external force profiles. It is found that the pin‐supported wall can effectively reduce the drift concentration factor. Distributions of the displacement, moment, and shear force are closely correlated with the relative stiffness of the wall and frame. Finally, recommendations on the stiffness and strength of a pin‐supported wall are made. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市需水量模拟及不确定性分析方法研究

需水量预测是区域水资源合理配置和有效管理的基础。由于供需水量的不确定性,精准的需水量预测较有困难。通过建立径向基函数（RBF）与BP神经网络预测模型,以西北地区城市西安市需水量为例,将用水量驱动因子作为模型输入,利用1990-2009年20组年用水数据进行网络训练模拟,对2010-2012年3组年用水数据进行检验预测,采用不确定性评价指数和置信区间方法对两种模型及模拟结果进行比较分析。结果表明,RBF与BP模型预测期的均方根误差分别为0.08、0.26,不确定性评价指数分别为0.74、1.02且BP模型预测值的相对误差最大超过10%以上,而RBF模型预测值的相对误差均小于5%,说明RBF模型模拟效果好,具有预测精度高以及不确定性影响低的双重优势;在模拟结果基础上,引用置信区间分析了结果的可靠性,为分析城市需水预测的不确定性提供了依据。     

地震科普视频点播系统的设计与实现

地震的科普知识是公众关心的内容,为了更好地向公众普及地震科普知识,利用流媒体技术设计了基于流媒体技术的地震科普视频点播系统。主要介绍了地震科普视频点播系统的系统设计、系统实现的关键技术以及在地震行业中的应用。     

Extended consecutive modal pushover procedure for estimating seismic responses of one-way asymmetric plan tall buildings considering soil-structure interaction

Performance based design becomes an effective method for estimating seismic demands of buildings. In asymmetric plan tall building the effects of higher modes and torsion are crucial. The consecutive modal pushover (CMP) procedure is one of the procedures that consider these effects. Also in previous studies the influence of soil-structure interaction (SSI) in pushover analysis is ignored. In this paper the CMP procedure is modified for one-way asymmetric plan mid and high-rise buildings considering SSI. The extended CMP (ECMP) procedure is proposed in order to overcome some limitations of the CMP procedure. In this regard, 10, 15 and 20 story buildings with asymmetric plan are studied considering SSI assuming three different soil conditions. Using nonlinear response history analysis under a set of bidirectional ground motion; the exact responses of these buildings are calculated. Then the ECMP procedure is evaluated by comparing the results of this procedure with nonlinear time history results as an exact solution as well as the modal pushover analysis procedure and FEMA 356 load patterns. The results demonstrate the accuracy of the ECMP procedure.     

网格计算的应用--构建随需应变的IT基础架构

随着网络和分布式计算技术的发展,网格作为一种新型的IT基础架构在企业得到了越来越多的应用。本文介绍了网格计算的基本架构,并通过一组实际应用的案例说明了如何构建数据网格、计算网格和服务网格。     

我国喜马拉雅地区适应气候变化能力建设的需求调查与分析

喜马拉雅地区是全球潜在关键区,过去几十年的气候变化已导致该地区冰川消融,与冰川有关的灾害风险与日俱增,随着气候的持续变暖,冰川消融将对该地区水资源供给产生负面影响.基于社会调查和实地考察,分析了我国喜马拉雅山地区冰川消融对灾害的可能影响,对水电发展的现实和潜在影响,并详细分析了气候变化对农业、牧业和林业的影响.根据调查问卷,分析了当地在适应冰川消融方面的迫切需求,社会经济不同部门适应气候变化的需求.以位于珠峰北坡朋曲河流域的定日县为典型区,探讨了在该县增强适应气候变化能力建设问题.当地应首先加强气候防护基础设施建设,以应对目前强降水增加引发的山洪、冰川加速消融导致的冰川洪水和泥石流危害、气候暖干化导致的农牧业干旱;开展以水能为主,多能互补,能源多样化建设,既可加快当地社会经济发展,又可促进当地居民适应气候变化能力的提高;吸引本地人才回流,加强各级岗位人才培训,提高管理水平和技术水平;大力开展科普宣传,提高农牧民对气候变化及其影响的了解和认识,增强其防御和应对能力.     

我国主要旱地作物水分供需状况分析及改善对策

建立了一个农田水分计算和评价模型,并利用1961～2000年月平均气候和有关作物资料,计算分析了我国5种主要旱地作物(春小麦、冬小麦、春玉米、夏玉米和棉花)的理论需水量及其时空分布,利用水分订正系数为指标评价作物需水量的满足程度.结果表明,气候条件对不同作物生产影响不同,比如小麦生育期内普遍严重缺水,玉米生育期水分供应比较充足,但在山西、陕西等地,夏玉米的播种期、出苗期及拔节期(6～8月)也存在明显的水分亏缺现象.作者针对我国北方农田干旱严重、水分供需很不平衡的情况,提出了相应的改善建议.