Using a Huff-Based Model to Delineate Hospital Service Areas

Hospital service areas (HSAs) are increasingly adopted as a basic analysis unit for health care studies. The popular Dartmouth HSAs were produced more than two decades ago, and the process was far from automated. This research uses a Huff-based model automated in a geographic information systems (GIS) environment to delineate HSAs. Based on the Florida State Inpatient Database (SID) in 2011, a best-fitting distance decay function is derived from the actual travel patterns of hospitalization and then fed into the Huff model to strengthen the model's theoretical foundation in individual spatial behavior. The HSAs derived from the Huff-based model are then compared to the traditional flow-based HSAs defined by the Dartmouth method and assessed in terms of self-containment and heterogeneity of internal socioeconomic structure and urbanicity. The Huff-based model requires fewer data and is easy to implement as an automated toolkit and thus has great potential for replication in other regions to define large-scale and consistent HSAs.     

基于星载接收机的导航卫星自主信号监测理论研究

随着用户对卫星导航系统导航电文质量要求的提高,传统的故障监测和报警方法的响应速度已不能满足用户的需求。在分析星载接收机监测主要故障的基础上,介绍了星栽接收机的监测原理并设计了一套监测方案,该方案能够极大地提高监测卫星广播电文质量的响应速度,基本上能满足卫星导航系统导航电文质量实时监测的要求,仿真计算取得了较好结果。     

数字地质调查系统在西藏驱龙矿区资源量 估算中的应用

埋藏于地下的矿产资源形态千差万别,产状复杂多变,数据来源多种多样。如何科学、合理、准确、灵活、高效地估算在一定工程控制条件下的资源量,完成资源量估算的各类图件、报表制作满足不同工作的需求是目前急需解决的问题。将数字地质调查系统技术运用到资源量估算领域是解决问题的有效途径。数字地质调查系统是基于GIS技术并在计算机软硬件支持下,融合计算机图形学、计算机人工智能和数据库技术于一体,实现对多源、海量地学实体数据采集、管理、存储、处理、成图、分析、成果输出等全过程的数据表达,实现了从野外工作到成果汇交的全数字化过程的无缝连接。通过在驱龙矿区的应用,充分体现了系统对多源、海量地学数据进行科学、合理、准确、灵活、高效的处理能力。     

南昌市居民幸福评价及影响因素研究

对南昌市居民幸福感问卷调查数据进行因子分析,探究出影响居民幸福感的潜在因素.通过结构方程模型定量分析了影响居民幸福各因素之间的关系,并建立指标体系评价了南昌市居民幸福的总体情况.研究发现：影响南昌市居民幸福感的潜在变量主要包括自然环境、社会环境、名利状况和身心健康,自然环境与社会环境的关联度最大,其次是名利状况对身心健康的影响.从幸福评价结果中可以看出,影响因子指数最低的是名利状况,而身心健康指数最高.对南昌市而言,经济需要进一步发展,政府应该为居民提供更多的社会保障.     

2006～2013年CMIP5模式中国降水预估误差分析

用第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的10个模式模拟结果与英国东安格利亚大学（UEA）气候研究机构（CRU）的最新降水格点分析资料比较,评估了三种典型浓度路径（RCPs）排放情景下模式集合对2006～2013年中国降水预估误差,结果发现模式间年降水预估在西北和东部沿海地区差异较明显,在沿海地区模式降水估计偏少,在西部和北方大部分地区偏多;冬半年大部分地区模式降水明显偏多,部分地区甚至偏多一倍以上;夏半年东部季风区降水估计偏少,但西部仍然偏多。模式降水误差随时间变化,夏半年误差变化明显的区域主要集中在北方和东部地区,冬半年在东北南部、华东及华南等地。此外,提高排放情景对年降水量估计影响明显的地区主要集中在我国西部的部分地区,加剧了西北模式降水估计偏多程度,但对东部地区影响不大。El Ni?o与La Ni?a年的模式降水误差分布相似,仅在沿海部分地区和华北北部差异较明显,逐年误差分布特征也与此相似。各种误差的对比分析表明,模式降水误差可能多来自模式本身存在的问题,如积云对流参数化、固体降水物理过程、地形处理及分辨率等。这些误差特征说明,直接使用CMIP5模式集合情景输出资料估计未来降水的方法存在较大的不确定性,必须对其进行评估,以降低潜在用户或决策者们制定未来规划的风险。     

Evaluation and hydrological application of precipitation estimates derived from PERSIANN‐CDR,TRMM 3B42V7, and NCEP‐CFSR over humid regions in China

Satellite‐based and reanalysis quantitative precipitation estimates are attractive for hydrologic prediction or forecasting and reliable water resources management, especially for ungauged regions. This study evaluates three widely used global high‐resolution precipitation products [Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks‐Climate Data Record (PERSIANN‐CDR), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 Version 7 (TRMM 3B42V7), and National Centers for Environment Prediction‐Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP‐CFSR)] against gauge observations with seven statistical indices over two humid regions in China. Furthermore, the study investigates whether the three precipitation products can be reliably utilized as inputs in Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a semi‐distributed hydrological model, to simulate streamflows. Results show that the precipitation estimates derived from TRMM 3B42V7 outperform the other two products with the smallest errors and bias, and highest correlation at monthly scale, which is followed by PERSIANN‐CDR and NCEP‐CFSR in this rank. However, the superiority of TRMM 3B42V7 in errors, bias, and correlations is not warranted at daily scale. PERSIANN‐CDR and 3B42V7 present encouraging potential for streamflow prediction at daily and monthly scale respectively over the two humid regions, whilst the performance of NCEP‐CFSR for hydrological applications varies from basin to basin. Simulations forced with 3B42V7 are the best among the three precipitation products in capturing daily measured streamflows, whilst PERSIANN‐CDR‐driven simulations underestimate high streamflows and high streamflow simulations driven by NCEP‐CFSR mostly are overestimated significantly. In terms of extreme events analysis, PERSIANN‐CDR often underestimates the extreme precipitation, so do extreme streamflow simulations forced with it. NCEP‐CFSR performs just the reverse, compared with PERSIANN‐CDR. The performance pattern of TRMM 3B42V7 on extremes is not certain, with coexisting underestimation and overestimation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A meta-analysis of geochronologically relevant half-lives: what’s the best decay constant?

Twenty-first century advances in both the analytical procedures and instrumentation used in geochronology promise age accuracy better than ±1‰, but realizing this potential requires knowledge of decay constants (λ) that exceed this level. Given the paucity of improved recent measurements of λ, the community has experimented with hybrid methodologies utilizing data largely generated during the 1970s. In this article, we perform a systematic review of laboratory decay constant determinations relevant to geochronology (i.e. ⁸⁷Rb, ¹⁴⁷Sm, ¹⁷⁶Lu, ²³⁰Th, ²³²Th, ²³⁵U, and ²³⁸U), focusing on methodological consistency. For radioisotopes for which multiple studies are available, results are combined through a random effects model to yield the best available values and associated uncertainties. Unfortunately, despite its vital role in modern geochronology, only one experimental determination of ²³⁸U decay met our criteria for consideration, significantly limiting the ability to assess its reliability. Thus, utilizing λ₂₃₈ as an anchor for establishing other decay constants (e.g. ⁴⁰K, ¹⁷⁶Lu, and spontaneous ²³⁸U fission) places an unverified result at the core of geochronology. For geochronology to attain its greatest potential, more and better laboratory determinations of decay constants are required, along with a community methodology that permits us to continuously take advantage of new data.     

频谱衰减油气检测在石桥1井区中的应用

地震频谱衰减属性可反映地层吸收性质、岩相和含气性,利用含气层段对地震波高频能量吸收强特点,可较好地预测地层含气层段[1].利用此项技术对车排子周缘的Sq1井区三维白垩系清水河组油藏进行含油气性检测,扩大该地区白垩系油气勘探领域.在此基础上,已发现多个白垩系有利目标.     

含水层的一种普遍规律:渗透系数随深度衰减

国内外多个含水层的研究都发现渗透系数具有随深度衰减的规律。给出了多孔介质和裂隙介质中渗透系数随深度衰减的一般模型及简化模型,并用该简化模型分析了多个含水层的渗透系数随深度衰减的规律。研究发现,随着渗透系数测试深度的增大,衰减系数明显变小;渗透系数测试深度相近的含水层,岩性对衰减系数有一定程度影响。渗透系数随深度衰减的规律应该在地下水科学的相关研究中引起重视。     

中国台湾浅滩海砂砂体的地球物理特征及有利赋存标志*

探测查明海砂分布及其资源量, 对海洋矿产资源规划和社会经济发展有重要意义。利用在中国台湾浅滩采集的单波束测深、侧扫声呐、浅地层剖面、单道地震等多源地球物理数据, 识别出海底沙脊、沙波、埋藏古河道等有利于海砂赋存的地貌标志, 以及厚泥盖层等不利标志, 它们在平面上渐变交错分布。地球物理数据与表层沉积物、钻孔岩心结果对比, 证实浅地层剖面能有效识别表层砂体上部和排除厚泥盖层(厚度>10m), 表层砂体上部呈断续中弱振幅杂乱反射; 单道地震剖面能有效识别砂-泥地层界面, 垂向上刻画表层及埋藏砂体形态, 砂体最主要的特征为连续性差的弱振幅反射中夹杂空白、杂乱的“白雾”反射。砂体响应特征反映了砂体声学较难穿透的特性, 同时也可能是砂体含气所致。分析表明在砂体形态多变或钻孔分布密度低时, 利用地球物理方法, 结合一定数量的钻孔岩心约束, 相比仅依靠大量钻孔岩心, 可更为经济、高效地对砂体的垂向形态和平面展布进行精细刻画, 从而有利于更准确地估算海砂的资源量。