The decay of coastal forts in southeast Brazil and its implications for the conservation of colonial built heritage

The 500th anniversary of European arrival in Brazil was celebrated in 2000 and highlighted the need to review the condition of the countrys remaining colonial built heritage. This revision is particularly apposite in the adjacent cities of Rio de Janeiro and Niterói, where the heritage that survived twentieth century reconstruction has done so largely because of ownership by the church or military. However, whilst this may have protected buildings from demolition, detailed fabric can be neglected or abused. This paper investigates this possibility through an examination of two forts, built primarily of local augen gneiss, that guard the entrance to Guanabara Bay. Natural outcrops exposed to the same humid sub-tropical maritime environment show that this rock is susceptible to slow disaggregation through salt weathering. Surveys suggest that stonework in the forts that is sheltered from rainwash is heavily loaded with salt and has passed a threshold, wherein stresses accumulated over centuries of apparent stability, combined with the effects of a more recent increase in atmospheric pollution and apparently inappropriate intervention (re-pointing), have triggered rapid breakdown that requires immediate intervention.     

SVD方法在场的定量预测中的应用

经SVD分析,截取足够多的预报场和因子场时间系数,使其相互关系代表两场的大尺度联系,预报场时间系数与其奇异向量线性组合估计场能反映原场主要特征.利用最小二乘法得到数值上最接近原场的初值,借助最优化技术,确定合理的系数,建立预测公式,由因子场时间系数预测预报场时间系数,同时订正预报场时间系数a1,a2,……,aN本身的误差和反演过程中分析误差造成的场格点趋势预测的误差.最后将预测的预报场时间系数和对应奇异向量反演为整个场的预报.预报过程重点考虑可预报的大尺度变化,滤去不可预报的小扰动,依据两场主要耦合关系,预测预报场未来的主要变化.     

水准标志沉降的分析计算

地面荷载的变化，引起了垂直附加应力的变化，通过弹性理论中应变应力的关系，确定了水准标志沉降量的积分表达式，并用梯形法近似地求出。同时，进行了误差估计。     

Inverted Two-Step Floating Catchment Area Method for Measuring Facility Crowdedness

The popular two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method has been widely used in the literature to measure spatial accessibility of residents for a service. The 2SFCA method accounts for the ratio between the supply capacity and demand amount of the service as well as the complex spatial interaction between them. This article introduces an inverted two-step floating catchment area (i2SFCA) method that is derived from an extension of the classic Huff model and used to capture the “crowdedness” (scarcity of resource or intensity of competition) for facilities. The method is illustrated and validated by a case study of evaluating hospital inpatient services in Florida. Several possible uses of the measure are also discussed.     

DETECTING AND ADJUSTING FOR NON-LINEARITIES IN CALIBRATION OF NEAR-INFRARED DATA USING PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS

A new regression method for non-linear near-infrared spectroscopic data is proposed.The technique isbased on a model which is linear in the principal components and simple functions(squares and products)of them.Added variable plots are used to determine which squares and products to incorporate into themodel.The regression coefficients are estimated by a Stein estimate which shrinks towards the estimatedetermined by the first several principal components and the selected non-linear terms.The technique isnot computationally intensive and is appropriate for routine predictions of chemical concentrations.Themethod is tested on three data sets and in all cases gives more accurate predictions than does linearprincipal components regression.     

粤北山区区域差距与协调发展战略研究--以广东省韶关市为例

为了测度粤北山区的韶关市区域内部和外部的差距，首先对广东省的市际和地带性差距进行了分析，然后测度和分析了韶关市各县（市）区域差距的变动趋势。进而分析了韶关市现有区域协调政策的成绩和存在的问题。在此基础上，提出了韶关市的区域协调发展战略：建立健全多层次的区域协调机构；加大纵向和横向政府财政转移支付的力度；加强与相邻相关地区的协调；进行指引型区域管治。     

长江三角洲新型城镇化发展问题与态势的判断

长江三角洲地区是中国经济最发达、人口最密集、城镇化进程较快的地区。当下,面对全球化深入发展、国家及区域经济社会转型等背景及资源环境瓶颈压力趋大等因素交互影响,长三角城镇化发展特征和格局出现了新的变化。城镇化发展关系经济社会发展各个方面,更是与人口、资源、经济要素的流动及变化息息相关。因此对长三角城镇化发展态势的研究,从人口流动、用地变化、经济增长等要素演化及其互动协调关系入手,进而对城镇化与工业化进程、土地与人口城镇化的步调、城市外来人口的市民化走势、城乡关系中的乡村衰退与复兴趋势、城镇化发展的粗放与集约等关系问题进行了深入分析和探讨,并提出相应的发展路径与制度建议以及今后新型城镇化需要进一步研究的主要科学问题。     

浙江省区域创新产出空间分异特征及成因

通过构建总体差异测度指数,并结合运用核密度估计等多种空间统计方法,分析浙江省区域创新产出的空间分异特征及其影响因素,结果表明：2006-2012年,浙江省区域创新产出总体存在较大差异,并呈现波动式上升趋势;浙江省区域创新产出分异增强,空间核密度呈现出由相对均匀到极化的演化趋势;浙江省区域创新产出整体上呈现高值和低值集聚分布,且集聚程度逐渐增强;各县域创新产出同样具有空间集聚性,杭州与宁波市辖区成为热点区域;空间指向性明显,整体表现出“东高西低、北高南低”的空间趋势面分布;由回归分析得出该时期浙江省区域创新产出空间分异主要受经济基础、政策制度、技术溢出和空间区位四个主要因素的影响。