内蒙古区域数值预报对探空和地面观测资料的敏感性试验研究

基于内蒙古睿图预报系统的低分辨率版本和WRFDA-FSO诊断工具,评估2021年7月现有探空和地面观测对内蒙古睿图预报系统预报的影响。该方法计算代价相对低廉,并允许根据观测变量、观测类型、气压层次、地理区域等观测的子集对观测影响进行划分。代价函数为以干总能量为度量的背景场和分析场的预报误差之间的差异。结果表明:观测影响的总体总和为负,观测对预报起正贡献作用。对12 h预报误差减小贡献最大的观测来自探空观测的动力变量(U、V风分量)。而单时次单位数量平均观测影响,探空观测的贡献约为地面观测的1/2。探空观测对12 h预报误差减小从近地面层至模式层顶均保持正贡献作用,并在对流层中低层和对流层高空急流层存在两个极大值区域;地面观测在850 hPa以下低层正贡献占比明显。探空观测在被同化系统同化时均总体具有有利的影响,也反映出探空观测数据稳定、质量较高的特征;地面观测对12 h预报误差减小起正贡献作用次数最多的区域在河套地区尤为显著。同时,探讨了需进一步提高地面观测资料同化率的问题。     

The REM Adjoint System and Its 4DVar Data Assimilation Experiments

The Regional Eta-coordinate Model(REM) has performed well in forecasting heavy rainfalls in China in recent years.A four-dimensional variational assimilation system(4DVar) is developed to improve the forecast skill of the REM.The tangent linear model and adjoint model codes are written according to thecode to coderule,and the establishment of the REM adjoint modeling system is introduced in detail in this paper.The tangent linear and adjoint models of the REM are validated against the observational data,...     

Variability of temperature,salinity and tidally‐averaged density in the middle estuary of the St Lawrence

Abstract

Surveys in the Middle Estuary of the St Lawrence have yielded a data base consisting of more than 15,000 T‐S pairs distributed over 62 13‐h profiling stations. Although the T‐S curves at each station are remarkably linear, the variability of the slopes and intercepts of the lines is considerable. The means and standard deviations of the temperature and salinity at each individual station are not explicable in terms of linear combinations of the parameters for location in the Estuary, the upstream water properties, the phase of the spring‐neap cycle and the tidal energies.

It is shown that the tidally‐averaged density structure is separable into horizontal and vertical components and that its vertical variation over the whole Estuary may be explained by any one of three different functional forms. However, its horizontal variation is not explicable in terms of linear combinations of the parameters mentioned in the paragraph above.

Plots of the horizontal variations in temperature, salinity or density may only be meaningful if the data are collected synoptically, and even then cannot be considered to be accurate over time‐scales longer than one tidal cycle.     

Preliminary 3–D geological model of the Kalgoorlie region,Yilgarn Craton,Western Australia,based on deep seismic‐reflection and potential‐field data

The granite‐greenstone terranes of the Eastern Goldfields Province, Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia, are a major Australian and world gold and nickel source. The Kalgoorlie region, in particular, hosts several world‐class gold deposits. To attempt to understand why these deposits occur where they do, it is important to understand the crustal architecture in the region and how the major mineral systems operate in this architecture. One way to understand these relationships is to develop a detailed 3–D geological model for the region. The best method to map the 3–D geometry of major geological structures is by acquisition and interpretation of seismic‐reflection profiles. To contribute to this aim, a grid of deep seismic‐reflection traverses was acquired in 1999 to examine the 3–D geometry of the region in an area including the Kalgoorlie mineral region and mineral fields to the north and west. This grid was tied to the 1991 regional deep seismic traverse and 1997 high‐resolution seismic profiles in the same region. The grid covers an area measuring approximately 50 km wide by 50 km long and extended to a depth of approximately 50 km (below the base of the crust in this region). The resulting 3–D geological model was further constrained by both surface geological data and geophysical interpretations, with the seismic interpretations themselves also constrained by gravity and magnetic modelling. The 3–D model was used to investigate the geometric relationships between the major faults and shear zones in the area, the relationship between the granite‐greenstone succession and the basement, and the spatial relationships between the greenstones and the granites. Interpretation of the grid of seismic lines and construction of the 3–D geological model confirmed the existence of the detachment surface and led to the recognition that the granite‐greenstone contact usually occurs at a much shallower level than the detachment. Also, west‐dipping faults in the vicinity of the Golden Mile, including the Abattoir Shear through to Boulder‐Lefroy Fault, appear to be more important than previously thought in controlling the structure of that area. An antiformal thrust stack occurs beneath a triangle zone centred on the Golden Mile. The Black Flag Group was deposited in a probable extensional setting, and late extension was also probably more important than previously thought. The granite‐gneiss domes were uplifted by the formation of antiformal thrust stacks at depth beneath them.     

Application of FY-2C Cloud Drift Winds in a Mesoscale Numerical Model

Statistical tests and error analysis of cloud drift winds(CDWs) from the FY-2C satellite were made by using radiosonde observations.According to the error characteristics of the CDW,a bias correction using the thermal wind theory was applied in the data quality control.The CDW data were then assimilated into the GRAPES-meso model via the GRAPES-3DVar.A torrential rain event that occurred in northwestern China during 1-2 July 2005 was simulated.The results indicate that the CDW data were mainly distribute...     

Integration of remote sensing data into hydrological models for reservoir management

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present the methodology set up to derive catchment soil moisture from Earth Observation (EO) data using microwave spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images from ERS satellites and to study the improvements brought about by an assimilation of this information into hydrological models. The methodology used to derive EO data is based on the appropriate selection of land cover types for which the radar signal is mainly sensitive to soil moisture variations. Then a hydrological model is chosen, which can take advantage of the new information brought by remote sensing. The assimilation of soil moisture deduced from EO data into hydrological models is based principally on model parameter updating. The main assumption of this method is that the better the model simulates the current hydrological system, the better the following forecast will be. Another methodology used is a sequential one based on Kalman filtering. These methods have been put forward for use in the European AIMWATER project on the Seine catchment upstream of Paris (France) where dams are operated to alleviate floods in the Paris area.     

North Atlantic climate impact on early late‐glacial climate oscillations in the south‐eastern Alps inferred from a multi‐proxy lake sediment record

High‐resolution multi‐proxy analyses of a sediment core section from Lake Jeserzersee (Saissersee) in the piedmont lobe of the Würmian Drau glacier (Carinthia, Austria) reveal pronounced climatic oscillations during the early late glacial (ca. 18.5–16.0k cal a BP). Diatom‐inferred epilimnetic summer water temperatures show a close correspondence with temperature reconstructions from the adjacent Lake Längsee record and, on a hemispheric scale, with fluctuations of ice‐rafted debris in the North Atlantic. This suggests that North Atlantic climate triggered summer climate variability in the Alps during the early late glacial. The expansion of pine (mainly dwarf pine) between ca. 18.5 and 18.1k cal a BP indicates warming during the so‐called ‘Längsee oscillation’. The subsequent stepwise climate deterioration between ca. 18.1 and 17.6k cal a BP culminated in a tripartite cold period between ca. 17.6 and 16.9k cal a BP with diatom‐inferred summer water temperatures 8.5–10 °C below modern values and a shift from wet to dry conditions. This period probably coincides with a major Alpine glacier advance termed the Gschnitz stadial. A warmer interval between ca. 16.9 and 16.4k cal a BP separates this cold phase from a second, shorter and less pronounced cold phase between ca. 16.4 and 16.0k cal a BP, which is thought to correlate with the Clavadel/Senders glacier advance in the Alps. The following temperature increase, coupled with wet (probably snow‐rich) conditions, caused the expansion of birch during the transition period to the late glacial interstadial. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The control of maturity and kerogen type on quantitative analytical pyrolysis data

Quantitative pyrolysis-gas chromatography has been performed on 96 kerogen samples isolated from 17 wells on the Norwegian Continental shelf. Petrographic and bulk geochemical measurements were also performed on the samples, and a combined data set of 117 variables for each sample was analysed using principal components analysis (PCA). This approach provides an objective and reproducible means of kerogen characterisation, which can be easily automated. In addition to objective kerogen characterisation and facile visualisation of facies and maturity related chemical trends, the method has the potential to allow objective prediction of key geochemical parameters such as maturity level from pyrogram data.     

Rockburst research at Falconbridge's Strathcona Mine,Sudbury, Canada

Microseismic systems at five mines in the Sudbury Basin provide the basic data for Falconbridge Limited's rockburst research. Daily and long-term analysis of this data as well as underground observations have confirmed the fault-slip mechanism at three mines. A detailed analysis of the complete history of Falconbridge Mine is being conducted and Distinct Element numerical models are being used to simulate both the stick-slip behaviour of faults and the dynamic effects of the induced vibrations on rock and backfill. University research includes acoustic tomographic imaging of the rock mass based on seismic wave propagation and collection of full microseismic waveforms to allow application of advanced seismic and statistical analysis techniques.Formerly with Mines Technical Services, Falconbridge Limited, Sudbury Operations, Falconbridge , Ont., P0M 1S0.Presented at the Fred Leighton Memorial Workshop on Mining Induced Seismicity, Montreal, Canada, August 30, 1987.     

原始数据误差对放样点精度影响的探讨

本文在文献[3]的基础上,进一步探讨了工程测量中原始数据误差对放样点精度影响的问题。首先,讨论了施工控制网中原始数据误差存在的形式、特点以及它们对放样点精度影响的传播规律,并建立了关于相对放样点位精度的矩阵公式。在此基础上,对现有的几种常用放样方法中原始数据误差的影响进行了分析和计算。结果表明,在施工放样测量工作中,应该密切注视原始数据误差的影响,并对此问题提出一些合理的建议。