逐步带逼近法在热带所旋路径预报中的应用

通过对逐步逼近法１９９５年试验情况与国内外预报台的综合预报以及与国内一些客观预报方法的比较分析，总结出该方法对移动路径明显转折的热带气旋有较好的预报能力，４８小时平均误差达到３００ｋｍ以内，特别是当热带气旋的移速发生明显变化时，该方法较之其它客观方法有明显的优越性。     

白杨河水库砼坝的地震动力分析

水坝抗震能力的评估在新疆具有重要的现实意义．采用有限单元法对白杨河砼坝的动力强度及稳定性进行了计算，结果表明地震时坝的破坏不取决于空库或是满库，而是与它们的周期有关；而且下游坝面遭到破坏的可能性大于上游坝面．在考虑水平及竖向地震荷载作用下，白杨河砼坝满足强度及稳定性要求。     

Modelling of ground motion in the vicinity of massive structures

A two-dimensional elastic Chebyshev spectral element method (SPEM) is used to model the seismic wavefield within a massive structure and in its vicinity. We consider 2-D models where a linear elastic structure, with quadrangular cross-section, resting on an elastic homogeneous half-space, is impinged upon by the waves generated by a surface impulse at some distance. The scattering of Rayleigh waves and the response of the structure are extensively analysed in a parametric way, varying size, mechanical parameters and shape of the load. Some of the models considered are representative of embankments and earth dams. The simulation shows that some models resonate, storing part of the incoming energy. With realistic parameters, the lowest resonance frequency is due to pure shear deformation and is controlled by the shear velocity and height of the load. Flexural modes are excited only at higher frequencies. The acceleration at the top of the structure may be five/seven times higher than at the base, depending on the mass of the structure. The gradual release of trapped energy produces a ground roll lasting several seconds after the wave front has passed. The ground-roll amplitude depends on the sturcture's mass and can be as large as 30% of the peak acceleration. Outside resonance conditions, the ground motion is almost unaffected by the presence of the artefact; the horizontal motion on top of it is nearly twice the motion at ground level. Similar results should be expected when the incident field is an upcoming shear wave. A qualitative discussion shows that the presence of anelastic attenuation in the embankment does not significantly alter the preceding conclusions, unless it is of very low values (e.g. Q < 15).The modelling results that we discuss indicate that the soil-structure interaction may substantially alter the ‘free-field’ ground motion. From a practical point of view, the main conclusions are: (1) careful analysis is necessary when interpreting seismic records collected in the vicinity of large artefacts; (2) seismic hazard at a site may depend on the presence of man-made structures such as embankments, dams, tall and massive buildings.     

A Study of Seismicity and Earthquake Hazard at the Proposed Kalabsha Dam Site,Aswan, Egypt

High and Aswan Dams Authority (HADA) proposed a plan aiming at constructing a rockfill dam in the Kalabsha area, about 60 km south of Aswan High Dam. The aim of this dam is to restrain the overflow of water to the Kalabsha Valley for keeping one billion cubic meters from being lost due to seepage and evaporation. The safety of dams during earthquakes is extremely important because failure of such a structure may have disastrous consequences on life and property. Therefore, different factors were considered as part of a site assessment. Five seismic source zones, close enough to the site to give rise to potentially damaging earthquake ground motions, were identified. Seven active faults that have the potential for producing significant earthquakes and that pass through or near the dam site were also identified. The earthquake loading represented by ground motions at the site was evaluated. Probabilistic seismic hazard procedures were used for assessing the earthquake loading at six individual sites using Area-and Line-Source Models (ASM & LSM). The ASM is based on current observed seismicity, whereas the LSM is based on geological slip rates. The output represents the expected acceleration amplitude with 90 percent probability of not being exceeded in exposure times of 20, 50, and 100 years. The results from the two models appear to be different, the expected ground motions from ASM were twice as high as expected from LSM. This difference is due to the load of the Aswan reservoir (Nasser Lake) triggering earthquakes on those parts of the faults that lie under the lake at Kalabsha area. The hazard at the selected sites is given by the hazard curve that is represented by the relationship between the peak ground acceleration and its annual exceedance probability. By comparing the curves for the six individual sites for the same source model, it can be concluded that the potential ground acceleration level for all the sites is almost the same. Considering the mean results from the two models, the annual exceedance probability of the expected ground acceleration from ASM is approximately ten times higher than the annual exceedance probability from LSM.Since ASM is based on current seismicity, it is more appropriate forrepresenting the actual hazard for the dam site.     

断陷湖盆隐蔽油藏预测及勘探的关键技术--高精度地震探测基础上的层序地层学研究

近十余年世界的我国隐蔽油藏勘探取得了巨大进展,其关键技术是高精度的三维地震及在此基础上的层序地层学研究,二者的结合已被油气产业部门当作勘探中的“权威性技术”。断陷湖盆在我国东部含油气资源的重要性居首位,控制层序形成演化的诸因素中,构造,古气候和在区域古地理格局中的位置对湖盆的类型和演化起着决定作用,需要按照断陷湖盆的沉积构造演化特征建立有预测功能的层序构成模式,在成熟的勘探区,重新建立等时层序地层格架,进行体系域精度的工业制图,阐明沉积体系的分布规律,使用高精度地球物理技术对圈闭定位,并对构造坡折带和低位域扇体给予重点注意,用这种技术方法指导隐蔽油气藏的勘探,已经并必将有许多重要发现。     

上犹江水电站坝基渗漏检测与分析

本文以上犹江水电站左岸地下水渗漏检测及分析为例。介绍以伪随机流场法、综合水量均衡法、水质和析出物化学分析法等相结合的渗漏检测与分析的方法技术，检测的结果与已有的工程地质资料以及水工观测资料是一致的。该方法技术体系不仅能查明水库渗水来源，还对渗漏通道、渗漏原因进行推断分析。避免以往单一方法的片面性，为检测分析水库坝基的渗漏提供了一种新的思路。     

基于多源卫星图像融合的水坝检测方法的研究

本文提出了一种基于多源卫星图像融合的水坝检测方法，该方法在特征级融合的模式下，利用多源卫星图像特征信息互补的优势，先后提取多个卫星图像中目标的特征信息，再通过多传感器数据融合方法中的逻辑模板法对特征进行融合，得到系统的目标结果输出。试验结果显示，该算法能在大幅复杂背景下有效地对水坝进行检测并定位，并减少了单源卫星图像进行目标检测的错判、误判率。整个算法能完全实现自动检测，可达到预想的目的。     

夏季青藏高原东部降水变化与副热带高压带活动的研究

用青藏高原上常规的台站资料和NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料,分析和研究了1993/1994年夏季5—8月青藏高原东部降水变化与西太平洋副热带高压南北移动的关系。结果表明:1993年夏季的副热带高压异常偏南,5—8月副高脊线北移过程中,还伴有准双周南北移动过程;而1994年夏季的副热带高压异常偏北,5—8月副高脊线北移过程中,则主要伴有30—60d的低频变化的南北移动过程。同时,在分析青藏高原上的天气变化特征时,发现这两年高原东部的降水变化特征也有明显的不同,夏季高原上降水的活跃和中断与副高脊线南北移动变化有类似的特征。因此,夏季西太平洋副热带高压南北移动可能与高原东部降水的中断/活跃有一定的关系。     

澜沧江大朝山水库蓄水前的地震活动本底

分析了大朝山水库蓄水前，水库区域历史中强、强地震背景与1992年来的地震活动格局，及蓄水前9年中库坝区天然地震活动的时、空、强分布，结果表明：大朝山水库区为地震活动水平较低的区域，库坝附近30km以2、3级地震活动为主，库首方向距大坝40km左右的景谷与库尾方向距大坝50km的昌宁、凤庆一带为5级地震活动区，外围100km左右的耿马、澜沧、普洱等地区为6、7级强震活动区；库坝区的地震活动基本符合G—R关系式，b值为0．69，累积应变曲线呈稳定增长趋势，时间分布上出现活跃与平静交替的分布格局。     

Experimental study on the effects of artificial bed roughness on turbidity currents over abrupt bed slope change

A series of experimental observations are presented in the current study to discuss the effects of artificial bed roughness on the turbidity current flowing in a rectangular channel with an abrupt change in bed slope.For this purpose,two different types of elements,sinusoidal and trapezoidal,with various heights and arrangements are considered as artificial bed roughness.A Vectrino velocity meter was used to measure the velocity and sediment concentration profiles.The effects of inlet sediment concentration on front velocity,body velocity,unit discharge,sediment concentration,and suspended load transport rate also were investigated.Accurate equations were developed for estimation of the velocity of a turbidity current over smooth and rough beds.The unexpected experimental results showed that unlike the effect of roughness height,a change in the roughness arrangement has no significant influence on the velocity of a turbidity current.Also,the effect of bed roughness on the front velocity of a denser current is more significant.