A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Une approche innovante pour modéliser la biodégradation des composés organochlorés volatils en aquifères poreux

The goal of this study was to develop an innovative chloroethene biodegradation module based on biological, thermodynamical and mechanistic concepts. The biodegradation scheme was based on the postulate that in each part of an aquifer only one degradation mechanism is dominant: the one involving the most energetic electron acceptor. Thus, the selection of the active degradation mechanism was a function of the concentration of different electron acceptors. Modified Monod-type kinetics was used in order to take into account the possible influence of some compounds on the biodegradation of a given organic compound. The numerical model developed was applied to a simple test case, whose results are presented here. To cite this article: F. Nex et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Assessment of sand encroachment in Kuwait using GIS

Assessment of sand encroachment in Kuwait using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology has been formulated as a Multi-Criteria Decision Making problem. The Delphi method and Analytical Hierarchy Process were adopted as evaluating techniques, in which experts’ judgments were analyzed for objectively estimating and weighting control factors. Seven triggering factors, depicted in the form of maps, were identified and ordered according to their priority. These factors are (1) wind energy; (2) surface sediment; (3) vegetation density; (4) land use; (5) drainage density; (6) topographic change and (7) vegetation type. The factor maps were digitized, converted to raster data and overlaid to determine their possible spatial relationships. Applying a susceptibility model, a map of sand encroachment susceptibility in Kuwait was developed. The map showed that the areas of very high and high sand encroachment susceptibility are located within the main corridor of sand pathway that coincides with the northwesterly dominant wind direction.     

龙永煤田危机矿山资源接替的几种勘探模式

通过龙永煤田现有煤矿状况调查分析发现：许多矿井已步入“花甲之年”，接近矿井服务年限。为了保障我省能源安全，应当采用有效勘探方法，方能使它们“返老还童”。研究发现危机矿山延长服务年限的几种勘探模式是：其一为扩大（延伸）勘探模式；其二为小型井田（块段）勘探模式；其三为资料分析研究模式。经探采对比发现，采用这三种勘探模式后，产生了巨大的经济效益，使一大批老矿井青春再度焕发。     

激光剥蚀等离子体质谱分析中激光剥蚀参数对信号响应的影响

探讨了激光剥蚀等离子体质谱固体微区分析中激光剥蚀参数对元素分析信号灵敏度及稳定性的影响。这些参数包括激光功率、脉冲频率、剥蚀孔经、散焦距离、剥蚀方式等。讨论了优化的激光剥蚀等离子体质谱信号采集及数据处理方式。在全质量范围内选用具有代表性的元素作为研究对象,建立了激光剥蚀的一般性特征规律和266nm紫外激光系统的最佳操作条件。在选定的激光剥蚀参数下,大多数被测元素的检出限为22.8~457ng/g,能够满足固体微区分析的要求。     

单一滑面边坡的非稳定蠕变模型分析

对单一滑面边坡的非稳定蠕变分析是边坡稳定性研究的基础。文中对岩质边坡单一滑面的流变变形机制进行了分析，提出了一种能较好反映这一变形机制的非稳定蠕变模型。特别是描述单一滑面边坡的非稳定蠕变破坏阶段，并对其稳定性进行了讨论。结合一些工程实例进行了对比验证，为滑坡灾害的预测和防治提供依据。     

非均匀陆面条件下区域蒸散量计算的遥感模型

非均匀陆面条件下的区域蒸散计算是一个复杂的问题。文中首先在利用遥感资料求取地表特征参数 (如植被覆盖度、地表反照率等 )的基础上 ,建立了裸露地表条件下的裸土蒸发和全植被覆盖条件下植被蒸腾计算模型 ,然后结合植被覆盖度 (植被的垂直投影面积与单位面积之比 )给出非均匀陆面条件下的区域蒸散计算方法。实测资料验算表明该模型具有较高的计算精度。文章最后利用该模型对中国北方地区的蒸散量进行了计算 ,并对该研究区蒸散的特点进行了分析     

用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。     

舞阳、襄城盐湖盆地未熟-低熟油成藏模式

舞阳、襄城凹陷下第三生活费为膏、盐岩相盐湖沉积。半咸水-咸水湖相、盐湖相是形成未熟-低熟油的良好环境，沉积旋回中期断坳式沉积形成了主要油源层系，其高丰度未熟烃类推岩体是形成未熟-低熟油藏的物质基础，中-高孔、中-高渗碎屑岩层构成了未熟-低熟油藏的重要储集层，并发育了较好的生储盖组合，这些有利条件为舞阳、襄城凹陷形成未熟-低熟油藏提供了重要保证。指出凹陷陡坡带为背斜、断鼻型油藏分布区，还可能有混合型油藏；中部洼陷带为岩性油藏、裂隙型油藏发育区；斜坡带主要发育断鼻型油藏。