2003年9月27日俄蒙中边界7.9级地震的中期预测及其重要意义

2003年9月27日在俄罗斯(靠近蒙古、中国边界)发生了7．9级地震。作者在两年前对俄蒙中边界7．9级地震作过中期预测，预测意见和这一巨震的比较表明：这一预测是成功的，预测的依据是清楚和明了的。这显示了12个8级左右巨震的空间有序图象。6对对应地震的迁移速度(v)的平均值为14．50km/a，6个v值的变化范围在10—22km/a之内。从而提出：在地壳深处(甚至上地幔上部)可能存在一种巨型结构，它在控制着这些巨震的有序和重复迁移。     

关于在地震预报中遇到的几个问题的探讨

地震台站工作人员 ,在进行观测资料分析、地震预报研究过程中 ,往往会遇到的几个问题 :1、手段单一 ,对于前兆现象无法全面表述。 2、如何识别异常与地震之间的关系。 3、如何兼顾点和面的关系。     

SMBR中污染物处理效率随污泥浓度变化的数学模型

以一体式膜生物反应器(SMBR)对生活污水进行处理,研究不同水力停留时间(HRT)条件下污泥浓度对有机物去除率的影响,并对所得试验数据进行曲线拟合,建立有机物去除率与污泥浓度的数学模型。试验结果表明:在溶解氧(DO)浓度为2.0～3.0mg/L的条件下,HRT为3h、2h和1h时,有机物去除率(η)随着污泥浓度的增大而增大,但当污泥浓度增大到6000mg/L时,η增大趋势逐渐减小,并趋于稳定。有机物去除率与污泥浓度的数学模型表明:有机物去除率(η)与水力停留时间(τ)、进水COD浓度(S_o)和污泥负荷率(N_s)等主要运行参数有关,并可以通过调节运行参数τ、S_o和N_s来达到所需要的COD去除率。     

桩基沉降量的灰色预测

利用实测的桩基静载试验数据 ,用灰色系统理论建立桩基沉降量的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型 ,可以模拟桩基静载试验P s曲线的未知部分。研究结果表明 ,建立的GM(1,1)模型可有效预测桩基沉降量 ,对进一步分析桩基的承载性能有理论与实际意义。     

通渝隧道围岩变形的神经网络预测

隧道新奥法施工中 ,常以围岩变形量作为评判围岩稳定性和支护结构经济合理性的重要指标。公路隧道围岩变形量是随时间而变化的数据序列 ,因而可以建立一些实时跟踪预测模型和方法。根据通渝隧道围岩拱顶下沉位移变形的特性 ,采用神经网络技术来预测其变形量 ,结果表明该方法简易、有效     

The pelagic community of a gravel pit lake: Significance of Coleps hirtus viridis (Prostomatida) and its role as a scavenger

Coleps hirtus viridis was the dominant species of the planktonic ciliate community of Lake Fühlinger See (Germany) during the study in 1999 and 2000. Total ciliate densities ranged from 120 to 42,000 ind. l⁻¹ in 1999 and up to 8,000 ind. l⁻¹ in 2000. Coleps contributed up to 98% to both total ciliate abundance and biomass and made up an average of 64% of the total ciliate biomass. Oligotrichs (Rimostrombidium, Strobilidium) dominated the epilimnetic zone, whereas peritrich ciliates (Pelagovorticella, Vorticella) were predominantly located in the hypolimnion. The population maximum of Coleps changed locations from the epilimnion in early summer to the hypolimnion (up to 40,000 ind. l⁻¹) during stratification. High growth rates in the hypolimnion, presence of endosymbiontic algae and the ability to ingest detritus seem to be important for the success.Growth rates of Coleps in June were determined by Landry-Hassett dilution experiments in both the epilimnion and the hypolimnion. The instantaneous growth rates were similar in both layers (0.6 d⁻¹), but a distinctly higher instantaneous mortality was estimated for the epilimnion. These high loss rates may be due to grazing pressure by cladocerans.The significance of the histophagous feeding of Coleps was evaluated through an experiment using killed zooplankton. Parts of Daphnia magna were incorporated at rates of about 1,100 μm³ ind.⁻¹ h⁻¹ by Coleps without endosymbiotic algae and at rates of 500 μm³ ind.⁻¹ h⁻¹ by Coleps with endosymbionts. These high feeding rates support the conclusion that Coleps can use dead organic matter as an additional food source.     

碳酸盐岩储层缝洞发育带预测:以塔河油田为例

塔河油田碳酸盐岩为古岩溶喀斯特化与受后期构造叠置改造的孔、洞、缝等组成的非均质储层,储层具有规模不同、空间形态不规则、充填性质各异的复杂组合特征以此为对象通过分解地震波场不同特征信号,开发了一系列针对不同储层目标的叠前叠后地震预测技术,不同特征地震预测结果经综合叠置验证分析,实现了残丘体上叠置的孔、洞、缝及古地貌的精细刻画及表征,展示了缝洞空间纵横交错的叠置关系,提高了复杂储层空间展布规律的认识及精确定位。     

Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky segments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system

Introduction In AD 1303, the great Hongtong, Shanxi, earthquake of magnitude 8 caused a very serious disaster, which killed over one hundred thousands people at least (Department of Earthquake Dis- *aster Prevention, State Seismological Bureau, 1995). On the occasion of commemorating this ca-tastrophe having occurred for 700 years, we have important problems that need to be answered: How long the average recurrence interval of the grea…     

中国新疆博斯腾湖全新世沉积环境年代学特征

通过对博斯腾湖沉积物湖芯样品进行137Cs,14C-AMS测年分析,湖芯剖面上有明显的1986年的切尔诺贝利核事故蓄积峰,以及1975年和1963年次蓄积峰,这些137Cs蓄积峰对博斯腾湖现代沉积有明显的时标意义。通过质量深度与年代分析,博斯腾湖的沉积速率相对稳定,平均沉积速率为0.13±0.01g/cm2.a。与14C年代获得的中全新世以来的平均沉积速率0.13±0.03cm/a和0.12±0.05cm/a相似,表明博斯腾湖中全新世以来的沉积环境较稳定,并且也说明14C-AMS测年分析所得的结果较为可靠,可以利用博斯腾湖沉积物样品测定的14C年代进行线性回归作年代校正,由于湖泊沉积物中老碳效应的影响,博斯腾湖沉积物有机质14C测年偏老约650a左右。     

Seismic tests on reinforced concrete and steel frames retrofitted with dissipative braces

Seismic tests have been conducted on two 3‐storey structures protected with pressurized fluid‐viscous spring damper devices. One of the structures was a reinforced concrete frame with clay elements in the slabs, while the other one was a steel frame with steel/concrete composite slabs. The spring dampers were installed through K bracing in between the floors. The tests were performed by means of the pseudodynamic method, which allowed the use of large and full‐size specimens, and by implementing a specific compensation strategy for the strain‐rate effect at the devices. The test results allowed the verification of the adequacy of the attachment system as well as the comparison of the behaviour of the unprotected buildings with several protected configurations, showing the benefits of the application of the devices and the characteristics of their performance. The response of the protected structures was always safer than that of the unprotected ones mainly due to a significant increase of equivalent damping. The increase in the damping ratio depends on the level of deformation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.