Historical land use as a driver of alternative states for stream form and function in forested mountain watersheds of the Southern Rocky Mountains

We demonstrate how land use can drive mountain streams in the Southern Rockies across a threshold to induce an alternative state of significantly reduced physical complexity of form and reduced ecological function. We evaluate field data from 28 stream reaches in relatively laterally unconfined valleys and unmanaged forest that is either old‐growth forest or naturally disturbed younger forest, and 19 stream reaches in managed forest with past land use. We evaluate potential differences in stream form, as reflected in channel planform, cross‐sectional geometry, and in‐stream wood loads, and stream function, as reflected in pool volume and storage of organic carbon. Field data indicate a threshold of differences in stream form and function between unmanaged and managed stream reaches, regardless of forest stand age, supporting our hypothesis that the legacy effects of past land use result in an alternative state of streams. Because physical complexity that increases stream retentiveness and habitat can maintain aquatic‐riparian ecosystem functions, the alternative physical state of streams in managed watersheds creates a physical template for an alternative ecological state with reduced pool volume, organic carbon storage, and ecosystem productivity. We recommend maintaining riparian forests that can supply large wood to streams as a stream restoration technique in historically forested stream segments. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relationship between habitat complexity and emergence time in damselflies

Environments with higher complexity harbor a greater biodiversity and can directly influence on certain behaviors of aquatic animals. Here, we tested whether habitat complexity predicts odonate larvae emergence and mortality rates by rearing larvae in aquaria with or without artificial complexity. The results show a shorter emergence time in more complex environments, and a higher mortality rate on less complex habitats.     

Systematic increase in model complexity helps to identify dominant streamflow mechanisms in two small forested basins

This study shows how the use of increasing model complexity allows us to hypothesize about dominant streamflow mechanisms in two small Brazilian forested basins. Nine different structures from SUPERFLEX, an objective framework to systematically increase hydrological model complexity, were tested and we extended the flexible modelling methodology to error models as well. We show that applying a rigorous methodology in a model evaluation framework, with residual analysis and control of model complexity, is essential for testing a model as a hypothesis for dominant hydrological controls. Our results indicate that the model architecture was more important than the increase in the number of model parameters. Better performing models were those with a parallel structure, which confirms our a priori belief about the dominant runoff mechanisms of the studied catchments, characterized by a rapid response to rainfall, but also a constant river discharge fed by water storage on the thick soil layer.     

地震预报的科学哲学与方法论探索——50年回眸与前瞻

地震预报是具高度复杂性的世界科学难题。以我国50余年实践中的问题为导向,以其揭示的自然现象为依托,从科学哲学及方法论视角,回顾经验归纳、还原论动力学、归纳-演绎和复杂动力系统等方法。通过汶川、唐山等震例探讨认识论因素在预测预报中的重要作用。进入地球系统科学新时期,建议以大陆变形复杂动力系统演化及其地震行为、经验与数值预测桥梁的图像（斑图）动力学作为地震预报的自然观和方法论。它们虽不完善,但更贴近大自然的整体性、进化性和非线性本质,又能包容连接多种思路与方法;既具前瞻性,又具可操作性;地震具可预测性,又具预测的不完全确定性;预测→预报→减轻灾害尚存在颇大的可创新空间。     

区域地质环境复杂程度评价

宏观分析区域地质环境复杂程度能有效指导长距离线状工程规划选线、指导城镇规划选址。以往地质环境复杂程度评价主要针对小区域,其评价方案在应用于大区域时受到一定限制。本文总结提出了区域地质环境复杂程度评价的指导性原则,针对地学研究中长期存在的地层岩性复杂程度难以量化的特点,引入信息熵的概念,利用"地层岩性信息熵"实现了复杂程度的量化评价。以四川为例,选取地形地貌、地层岩性、冻土、断裂构造、区域稳定性、气象等6类10项指标,利用AHP法计算指标权重,基于GIS平台对境内地质环境复杂程度进行分析。研究方法对区域地质环境评价具有参考价值,成果可为四川境内长距离线状工程规划提供参考。     

耦合魔方——一个分析人地系统耦合机理的多维框架

Understanding the interactions between humans and nature in the Anthropocene is central to the quest for both human wellbeing and global sustainability.However,the time-space compression,long range interactions,and reconstruction of socio-economic structures at the global scale all pose great challenges to the traditional analytical frameworks of human-nature systems.In this paper,we extend the connotation of coupled human and natural systems(CHANS)and their four dimensions—space,time,appearance,and organization,and propose a novel framework:“Coupled Human and Natural Cube”(CHNC)to explain the coupling mechanism between humans and the natural environment.Our proposition is inspired by theories based on the human-earth areal system,telecoupling framework,planetary urbanization,and perspectives from complexity science.We systematically introduce the concept,connotation,evolution rules,and analytical dimensions of the CHNC.Notably there exist various“coupling lines”in the CHNC,connecting different systems and elements at multiple scales and forming a large,nested,interconnected,organic system.The rotation of the CHNC represents spatiotemporal nonlinear fluctuations in CHANS in different regions.As a system continually exchanges energy with the environment,a critical phase transition occurs when fluctuations reach a certain threshold,leading to emergent behavior of the system.The CHNC has four dimensions—pericoupling and telecoupling,syncoupling and lagcoupling,apparent coupling and hidden coupling,and intra-organization coupling and inter-organizational coupling.We mainly focus on the theoretical connotation,research methods,and typical cases of telecoupling,lagcoupling,hidden coupling,and inter-organizational coupling,and put forward a human-nature coupling matrix to integrate multiple dimensions.In summary,the CHNC provides a more comprehensive and systematic research paradigm for understanding the evolution and coupling mechanism of the human-nature system,which expands the analytical dimension of CHANS.The CHNC also provides a theoretical support for formulating regional,sustainable development policies for human wellbeing.     

城市产业共生网络的复杂性与管理模式分析

城市产业共生网络在运行过程中存在"系统失灵"现象,原因在于对产业共生网络运行机制的复杂性缺乏足够的认识.产业共生网络是一个复杂系统,共生主体之间存在着复杂的物质、能量、价值和信息的不断交换,形成产业共生网络中的物质流、能量流、价值流和信息流.从这一角度出发,基于复杂适应系统理论,详细阐述了城市产业共生网络的复杂运行过程,即物质流、能量流、价值流和信息流"四流"相互适应的交互作用机制,在此基础上,提出了城市产业共生网络管理系统的"圆形模式",并以天津市为例,说明了该模式的运用实施过程.     

THE WEST COAST OF BRITAIN: STATISTICAL SELF-SIMILARITY VS. CHARACTERISTIC SCALES IN THE LANDSCAPE

Mandelbrot (Science, 1967, 156, 636–638) used the west coast of Britain as an example of a naturally occurring statistically self-similar fractal. Evidence from this study indicates that the west coast of Britain is not statistically self-similar over the range of scale of measurement, and that complexity reaches maxima at characteristic scales related to identifiable features on the coastline. A fractal analysis is conducted using the divider method, and although the resulting log–log plot of measured length against steplength appears linear, statistical tests for linearity strongly suggest that the coastline is not statistically self-similar. An angle measure technique (AMT) developed by the author to examine changes in line complexity with scale, shows that within the range of scale of measurement there are two peaks in complexity for the west coast of Britain, suggesting that two processes acting at different scales have influenced coastal development. The AMT is also used to identify differences in complexity between northern and southern sections of the coastline. Additionally, high r² values associated with regressions of log L(G) against log G are shown to be insufficient evidence of statistical self-similarity, and apparently linear segments (fractal elements) often found in Richardson plots may contain systematic curvature revealed only by more rigorous tests for non-linearity.     

Simple spatially-distributed models for predicting flood inundation: A review

In this paper we review recent progress in the use of reduced complexity models for predicting floodplain inundation. We review the theoretical basis for modelling floodplain flow with simplified hydraulic treatments based on a dimensional analysis of the one-dimensional shallow water equations. We then review how such schemes can be applied in practice and consider issues of space discretization, time discretization and model parameterisation, before going on to consider model assessment procedures. We show that a key advantage of reduced complexity codes is that they force modellers to think about the minimum process representation necessary to predict particular quantities and act as a check on any tendency to reductionism. At the same time, however, the use (compared to standard hydraulic codes) of strong simplifying assumptions requires us to also address the question “how simple can a model be and still be physically realistic?” We show that by making explicit this debate about acceptable levels of abstraction, reduced complexity codes allow progress to be made in addressing a number of long-standing debates in hydraulics.     

Geospatial Agents, Agents Everywhere . . .

The use of the related terms “agent‐based”, “multi‐agent”, “software agent” and “intelligent agent” have witnessed significant growth in the Geographic Information Science (GIScience) literature in the past decade. These terms usually refer to both artificial life agents that simulate human and animal behavior and software agents that support human‐computer interactions. In this article we first comprehensively review both types of agents. Then we argue that both these categories of agents borrow from Artificial Intelligence (AI) research, requiring them to share the characteristics of and be similar to AI agents. We also argue that geospatial agents form a distinct category of AI agents because they are explicit about geography and geographic data models. Our overall goal is to first capture the diversity of, and then define and categorize GIScience agent research into geospatial agents, thereby capturing the diversity of agent‐oriented architectures and applications that have been developed in the recent past to present a holistic review of geospatial agents.