杭州城市形态和土地利用结构的时空演化

根据分形理论研究杭州1949~1996年间城市形态和土地利用结构的演化特征,发现杭州城市具有明确的自相似规律。研究表明,杭州城市形态和土地利用结构的分形性态逐渐变好,这与国外学者“演化的城市分形”观相互印证。各类土地形态的维数都小于整个城市形态的维数,从而证实了国内学者“城市化地区的分维大于各职能类土地空间分布维数”的理论推断。从时空变化来看,杭州城市形态的分维呈上升趋势,1996年接近Batty等提出的理论预期维数D = 1.71;居住用地、工业用地和对外交通用地的分维近20年来趋于增大,而教育用地和绿化用地的分维则有所减小。杭州市的分形演化和分维变化总体上揭示了城市自组织演化的特征,但工业用地维数的大幅度上升和绿化用地维数的下降显然暗示该城市在进化过程中的局部退化倾向。     

河南省城镇体系空间结构的多分形特征及其与水系分布的关系探讨

基于河南省城镇体系空间结构的多分形性质及其与水系的分维关系的实证探讨发现如下地理规律:①在较大标度范围内,河南省城市体系的空间结构为简单分形,但在较小标度范围内,系统已经具有明确的多重分形特征;②多分维谱在参数q≈-4处出现标度间断,从而城市体系的空间结构发生对称破缺。③城市体系空间结构的分维小于水系空间结构的分维。由此证明:第一,多分形是由单分形演化而来,城镇体系的多分形结构是基于地球表面的分形支体由测度集中区向测度疏散区渐近发育的。第二,城市体系的分形发育与水系的分维结构具有一定的数理关系,城市体系的分维理当小于水系维数。     

效用最大化、logit变换和城市地理学的数量分析模型

城市地理学的主要学模型，包括城市化进程的logistic模型，城市位序-规模分布的幂指数模型以及城市人口密度衰减的负指数模型，都可以从两个简单的科学假设出发推导出来。文章证明，上述假设在理论上可以归结为效用最大化原理，其本质与信息熵最大化有着深刻的内在关系。城市地理学的主要模型作为标度定律都可以借助logit变换进行简化处理，从而为理论模型的实际应用以及城市演化动力学的模拟实验分析打开了方便之门。     

Complexity Theory of Natural Disasters; Boundaries of Self-Structured Domains

Disasters are often represented as complete breakdowns of quasi-stationary states in a landscape, but may also be part of the normal evolution of such states. A landscape is, in fact, an open, nonlinear, dynamic system where the tectonic uplift and the seismic activity represent the input, the mass wastage and the relief degradation the output. The apparent 'stability' is due to the fact that open, nonlinear dynamic systems tend to develop into relatively stable, self-organized ordered states 'at the edge of chaos', with a fractal attractor. Short of complete breakdown, such systems re-establish order in steps of various magnitudes which have a power-law distribution. Because of the fractal structure of the basic attractor, all subsets follow a power law which accounts for the distribution of the steps of recovery. As the domains of quasi-stationarity at the edge of chaos are represented by finite windows, the power-law does not cover all magnitudes. The stationarity windows are not only limited in range, but also in space and time. This should be taken into account in the assessment of hazards. Examples are given from seismology (earthquake frequency), volcanology (eruption frequency), river hydrology (flood frequency) and geomorphology (landslides).     

The influence of biogeochemical conditions and level of model complexity when simulating cometabolic biodegradation in sorbent-water systems

Eighteen models with different levels of complexity for representing sorption, mass transfer, and biodegradation are used to simulate the biodegradation of toluene (primary substrate) and TCE (cometabolic substrate). The simulations are conducted for hypothetical completely mixed systems of various scenarios with regard to sorbent, microbial composition, and solute concentrations. The purpose of the suite of simulations is to investigate the sensitivity of different modeling approaches in simulating the bio-attenuation of co-existing solutes in sorbent-water systems. The sensitivity of results to the modeling approach depends on the biogeochemical conditions of the system. For example, the results are insensitive to the type of sorption model in systems with low sorption strength and slow biodegradation rates, and insensitive to the biodegradation rate model if mass transfer controlled. Differences among model results are generally greater when evaluated in terms of total mass removal rather than aqueous phase concentration reduction. The fate of the cometabolite is more sensitive to the proper consideration of co-solute effects than is the fate of the primary substrate. For a given system, graphical comparison of a characteristic mass transfer rate coefficient (α_mt) versus a characteristic biodegradation rate coefficient (α_bio) provides an indication of how sensitivity to the different processes may be expected to change with time and can guide the selection of an appropriate level of model complexity.     

固体地球系统的复杂性与自组织临界性

本世纪自然科学的发展趋是由极小（粒子物理学）→极大（宇宙学）→极复杂（复杂性科学）。“复杂性”研究具有科学发展的时代特点,是具有前瞻性和探索创新性的基础研究。笔者根据复杂性科学研究复杂性的涌现机制是２１世纪的科学的认识,结合固体地球系统的复杂性与自组织临界性的内禀基本属性,提高“固体地球系统的复杂性与自组织临界性”这一命题,从新的视角对古老而又常新的固体地球系统进行再认识,从广义地质学系统和过程的本质归纳出固体地球系统的基本问题,提出了它的三大基础理论问题,井拟定了以整体论为主导、还原论作辅助,宏观与微观处理相结合与互补的方法论。固体地球系统的复杂性和自组织临界性,是我国经济增长、社会进步和地学发展的重大科学问题之一。对于这一同题进行研究将成为21世纪地学发展中居于战略地位的生长点之一,使地学取得突破性进展,并带动许多相关学科的同步发展。     

复杂性科学理论在地球物质学中的作用

地球物质学是一门以复杂的地球系统为研究对象的新学科,而复杂性科学专门用来研究一些非线性复杂问题。目前复杂性科学已在不同的学科中得到广泛应用,同时也在地球物质学中得到应用,成为地球物质学中最基本和最重要的理论。     

The use of teleseismic P-wave complexity for seismic event screening – results determined from GRF and GERESS array data

Seismic data recorded at the broad-band teleseismic GRF array and theshort-period regional GERESS array, which is a designated IMS primarystation, are analyzed to determine the effectiveness of teleseismic P-wave complexity for the purpose of seismic event screening within theframework of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification. For theGRF array, seismic waveform data from nearly 200 nuclear explosions havebeen recorded since its installation in the late 1970's, which were studiedalong with several thousand earthquakes from the last few years.Additionally, we investigated teleseismic P wave complexity for a similarnumber of earthquakes recorded at GERESS. However, owing to itsoperation starting in 1991, only a limited number of nuclear explosionseismograms are available for study.For nuclear explosions, complexity does not exceed levels of 0.3 except fora number of events from the Nevada Test Site recorded only at the GRFarray and located at a large distance where PcP may interfere with the initialP wavelet. Since all events with complexity at GRF larger than 0.3 areexclusively located on Pahute Mesa within the Nevada Test Site,near-source geology or topography must play a dominant role for theseincreased complexity values, while PcP may not contribute significantly tothe high-frequency energy measured by the complexity parameter.Although many earthquakes show complexities below this level, for morethan 25% of the earthquakes investigated the complexities determined arelarger than 0.7, thus showing distinctly larger values than nuclearexplosions. Therefore, this percentage may be screened as earthquakes fromall seismic events detected. As currently only about half of the eventsdetected by the global IMS network are screened out based on focal depthand the m _b :M _s criterion, teleseismic P-wavecomplexity may contribute significantly to the task of seismic eventscreening.     

Epistemological dimensions of the water–energy–food nexus approach: reply to discussions of “Challenges in operationalizing the water–energy–food nexus”*

ABSTRACT

We thank the authors, Varis and Keskinen, and Nauditt, for their constructive contributions. We endorse their key comments, further referring to recent literature and events, including the UN 2018 High Level Political Forum on sustainable development. Here, we elaborate on the epistemological perspective of the water–energy–food nexus conceptualization, assessment, discourse and operationalization.