中国大陆20世纪以来第五地震活跃期的复杂性及其本质问题

2001年昆仑山口西 8.1 级特大地震后, 几年来地震界对中国大陆地震活动总趋势的判断与地震活动现实出现较大的偏差, 这是为什么？ 该文系统地分析研究了20世纪中国大陆第五地震活跃期的复杂性和特殊性, 并着重探讨研究出现这种复杂性的本质问题和相关的地球动力学因素。     

Evaluating the performance of topobathymetric LiDAR to support multi-dimensional flow modelling in a gravel-bed mountain stream

Stream biophysical processes are commonly studied using multi-dimensional numerical modelling that quantifies flow hydraulics from which parameters such as habitat suitability, stream carrying capacity, and bed mobility are derived. These analyses would benefit from accurate high-resolution stream bathymetries spanning tens of kilometres of channel, especially in small streams or where navigation is difficult. Traditional ground-based survey methods are limited by survey time, dense vegetation and stream access, and are usually only feasible for short reaches. Conversely, airborne topobathymetric LiDAR surveys may overcome these limitations, although limited research is available on how errors in LiDAR-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) might propagate through flow models. This study investigated the performance of LiDAR-derived topobathymetry in support of multi-dimensional flow modelling and ecohydraulics calculations in two gravel-bedded reaches (approximately 200 m long), one morphologically complex and one morphologically simple, and at the segment scale (32 km-long stream segment) along a 15 m-wide river in central Idaho, USA. We compared metre and sub-metre-resolution DEMs generated from RTK-GPS ground and Experimental Advanced Airborne Research LiDAR-B (EAARL-B) surveys and water depths, velocities, shear stresses, habitat suitability, and bed mobility modelled with two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic models supported by LiDAR and ground-surveyed DEMs. Residual statistics, bias (B), and standard deviation (SD) of the residuals between depth and velocity predicted from the model supported by LiDAR and ground-survey topobathymetries were up to −0.04 (B) and 0.09 m (SD) for depth and −0.09 (B) and 0.20 m s⁻¹ (SD) for velocity. The accuracy (B = 0.05 m), precision (SD = 0.09 m), and point density (1 point m⁻²) of the LiDAR topobathymetric survey (regardless of reach complexity) were sufficient to support 2D hydrodynamic modelling and derivative stream habitat and process analyses, because these statistics were comparable to those of model calibration with B = 0 m and SD = 0.04 m for water surface elevation and B = 0.05 m s⁻¹ and SD = 0.22 m s⁻¹ for velocity in our investigation. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

识别地震与爆炸的一种时间域新方法

利用地震观测波形直达纵横波能量的差异,在时间域创建标志地震事件震源性质的新参量a,计算182个台站记录的24个地震事件的a值,并用以分析2017年9月3日敏感地区发生的地震事件性质。结果表明,判据a具有良好的震源性质依附效应,从而为地震与爆炸的识别引进了一种新方法。     

黑河流域地理观测分析——复杂性科学视角（英文）

Since 2005,dozens of geographical observational stations have been established in the Heihe River Basin(HRB),and by now a large amount of meteorological,hydrological,and ecological observations as well as data pertaining to water resources,soil and vegetation have been collected.To adequately analyze these available data and data to be further collected in future,we present a perspective from complexity theory.The concrete materials covered include a presentation of adaptive multiscale filter,which can readily determine arbitrary trends,maximally reduce noise,and reliably perform fractal and multifractal analysis,and a presentation of scale-dependent Lyapunov exponent(SDLE),which can reliably distinguish deterministic chaos from random processes,determine the error doubling time for prediction,and obtain the defining parameters of the process examined.The adaptive filter is illustrated by applying it to obtain the global warming trend and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation from sea surface temperature data,and by applying it to some variables collected at the HRB to determine diurnal cycle and fractal properties.The SDLE is illustrated to determine intermittent chaos from river flow data.     

Analyses of geographical observations in the Heihe River Basin: Perspectives from complexity theory

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Since 2005, dozens of geographical observational stations have been established in the Heihe River Basin (HRB), and by now a large amount of meteorological,...     

技术关联性、复杂性与区域多样化——来自中国地级市的证据

忽视现实基础,盲目追求新兴产业的现象普遍存在于当前中国的一些城市。基于国家知识产权局的专利数据,描绘1987—2016年中国地级市技术关联性和复杂性的时空演化特征,探讨两者对区域技术进入和增长的影响。结果表明：① 新技术的本地关联度越高,就越有可能进入该地区;现有技术的本地关联度越低,就越容易退出该地区;② 中国城市的技术发展总体上呈现路径依赖特点。其中,东部地区的技术关联性和复杂性变化较大,中西部地区变化较小;③ 技术关联性对新技术的进入和增长起到显著的促进作用。在引入复杂性较高的技术时,只有存在较高关联性才会促进区域的技术进步。最后提出的区域多样化发展框架,可为决策者权衡选择技术发展道路提供参考。     

基于关联度和复杂度的中国城市技术引入模式及其演化机制

"创新驱动发展"是中国的重要发展战略,论文利用中国知识产权局记录的城际技术转移专利条目数据,从关联度和复杂度入手,借助Gephi、ArcGIS、Stata等工具,探索中国城市的专利技术引入模式.论文以城市引入技术的平均关联度、平均复杂度为标尺,划分出"高关联度—高复杂度""低关联度—高复杂度""低关联度—低复杂度""高...     

用海岸线分形计算方法对气候变化复杂性的初步研究——以渭南黄土剖面碳酸盐质量分数为例

许多气候环境变化曲线像自然界的曲线一样存在复杂的变化。尝试用计算海岸线分形维数的方法分析了渭南黄土剖面碳酸盐质量分数变化轨迹的分形特征,发现其中也存在分形维数,这种分数维也可以用来表示碳酸盐质量分数变化的复杂性。渭南黄土剖面碳酸盐质量分数变化轨迹的分形存在两段性,而且在黄土和古土壤中也存在差异     

Spatial scale effects of water erosion dynamics: Complexities, variabilities, and uncertainties

Severe water erosion is notorious for its harmful effects on land-water resources as well as local societies. The scale effects of water erosion, however, greatly exacerbate the difficulties of accurate erosion evaluation and hazard control in the real world. Analyzing the related scale issues is thus urgent for a better understanding of erosion variations as well as reducing such erosion. In this review article, water erosion dynamics across three spatial scales including plot, watershed, and regional scales were selected and discussed. For the study purposes and objectives, the advantages and disadvantages of these scales all demonstrate clear spatial-scale dependence. Plot scale studies are primarily focused on abundant data collection and mechanism discrimination of erosion generation, while watershed scale studies provide valuable information for watershed management and hazard control as well as the development of quantitatively distributed models. Regional studies concentrate more on large-scale erosion assessment, and serve policymakers and stakeholders in achieving the basis for regulatory policy for comprehensive land uses. The results of this study show that the driving forces and mechanisms of water erosion variations among the scales are quite different. As a result, several major aspects contributing to variations in water erosion across the scales are stressed: differences in the methodologies across various scales, different sink-source roles on water erosion processes, and diverse climatic zones and morphological regions. This variability becomes more complex in the context of accelerated global change. The changing climatic factors and earth surface features are considered the fourth key reason responsible for the increased variability of water erosion across spatial scales.     

大型矿床和成矿区(带)在混沌边缘

笔者将复杂性科学和矿床地质学相结合提出了一种新的金属成矿理论———“金属成矿动力系统的复杂性与自组织临界性”,并应用这一理论研究扬子古陆周缘四大成矿区（带）的矿床成因与成矿规律,发现“大型矿床和成矿区（带）在混沌边缘”。文章在概述“金属成矿动力系统的复杂性与自组织临界性”的理论纲要与噪声、混沌和混沌边缘基本概念的基础上,提出地质成矿系统在混沌边缘的四条判定准则：Ⅰ．自组织临界性的标志———广义地质学（地质学、地球物理学、地球化学）场（温度、流速、浓度、压力等场）的场量之时空幂律分布———及其基本属性：（１）长程时空关联与连通性及时空分形结构;（２）崩塌动力学;（３）“元胞自动机”的动力学机制;（４）自组织临界性涌现于“混沌边缘”,并具有最大的复杂性、演化性和创新性。Ⅱ．地质成矿过程向时间混沌及地质成矿系统向时空混沌的演化。Ⅲ．岩浆和热液“孤子”、“孤波”与“相干结构”以及其它弱混沌“拟序结构”。Ⅳ．超临界地质流体参与地质成矿作用。笔者进一步提出金属成矿动力系统的复杂性与自组织临界性的三大基础理论：（１）地质成矿过程的非线性动力学———应用非线性动力学理论研究矿床和矿集区形成的动力学机制;（２）“地质成矿作用?