Comparison of six statistical approaches in the selection of appropriate fish growth models

The performance of six statistical approaches,which can be used for selection of the best model to describe the growth of individual fish,was analyzed using simulated and real length-at-age data.The six approaches include coefficient of determination(R2),adjusted coefficient of determination(adj.-R2),root mean squared error(RMSE),Akaike's information criterion(AIC),bias correction of AIC(AICc) and Bayesian information criterion(BIC).The simulation data were generated by five growth models with different num...     

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Integrated management of marine biodiversity in Europe: Perspectives from ICZM and the evolving EU Maritime Policy framework

Biological diversity, or biodiversity, is high on the international agenda for nature conservation. Marine and coastal ecosystems account for an important share of the biological diversity on Earth. As a consequence many international conventions, European legislation and national laws refer to marine biodiversity. The protection of marine biodiversity is a complex legal issue as it requires consideration of geographic (between land and sea), political (between conservation and exploitation), and economic (between fisheries, tourism, intellectual property and many other sectors) factors. Like Matryoshka dolls, marine biodiversity is a heterogeneous notion difficult to address as one discrete area in the development of policy agendas or juridical frameworks. In the past decade, the EU has been very active in Promoting Integrated Coastal Zone Management and in developing a framework for an Integrated Maritime Policy. This article reviews the status of marine biodiversity in the policy and legal initiatives of the European Union, a challenging issue to both the objectives of conservation and to the concept of integration.     

旅游资源开发潜力评价的多层次灰色方法——以老子山风景区为例

旅游资源开发潜力评价,是对旅游资源是否具备发展旅游业的条件并进而获取经济、社会和环境效益的能力的衡量。其评价不仅着眼于旅游资源的本体价值,还关注对旅游资源开发不可或缺的环境条件和开发效益等。文章在旅游资源开发潜力评价方法上进行创新,将灰色理论和层次分析法相结合,以洪泽县老子山风景区为例,对其六个景区的旅游资源开发潜力进行了评价和排序。研究表明,旅游资源开发潜力的多层次灰色评价方法所需样本量小,灰色评价过程有助于解决层次分析法评价中出现的信息不完备和不确切问题,使评价结果更加客观可信。与传统的旅游资源评价方法相比,此方法能够有效解决旅游资源等级与开发潜力之间的错位问题,从而对旅游开发实践更具科学指导意义。     

国内外城市规划实施管理比较研究

通过对比分析美国、英国、德国和我国的城市规划实施管理制度,了解到西方发达国家城市规划具有规划设计可实施性和法律权威性强、实施管理程序简洁高效、城市规划调整程序严谨等优点,但在充分发挥建筑师的创造性、引导和促进城市开发建设等方面存在一定的局限性.我们应该认真吸取他们的成功经验,以期为推进我国规划实施管理制度改革与创新提供有益的借鉴.     

Comparative study on two methods for calculating the gravitational potential of a prism

The determination of the gravitational potential of a prism plays an important role in physical geodesy and geophysics. However, there are few literatures that provide accurate approaches for determining the gravitational potential of a prism. Discrete element method can be used to determine the gravitational potential of a prism, and can approximate the true gravitational potential values with sufficient accuracy (the smaller each element is, the more accurate the result is). Although Nagy’s approach provi...     

COMPARATIVE STUDY ON RESIDENTS＇ PERCEPTION OF TOURISM IMPACT AT TOURIST PLACES—A Case Study of Xidi, Zhouzhuang and Jiuhua Mountain

Based on the questionnaire investigation, the authors make a comparative study on local residents‘ perception of tourism impacts in Xidi, Zhouzhuang and Jiuhua Mountain. The result shows that residents of the three places tend to have strong and consistent perception of its positive economic, socio-cultural and environmental impacts, but distinctly diverse ones of its negative impacts. Residents in Xidi and Zhouzhuang also have noticeable perception of its negative environmental impacts while those in Jiuhua Mountain have weaker perception of them.The research confirms the fact that residents are more liable to have positive perceptions at the early stage of the life cycle of the tourist places. The authors conclude that there exists a nonlinear relationship between residents‘ perception and tourism development stages, and that tourism socio-cultural impact may appear at an early stage of tourism development instead of being no universal.     

Holocene seasonal sea‐surface temperature variations in the southern Adriatic Sea inferred from a multiproxy approach

Holocene cooling events have been reconstructed for the southern Adriatic Sea (central Mediterranean) by means of analyses of organic walled dinoflagellate cysts, planktonic foraminifera, oxygen isotopes, calcareous nanoplankton, alkenones and pollen from a sediment core. Two cooling events have been detected, during which sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) were ca. 2°C lower. Unravelling the SST signal into dominant seasonal components suggests maximum winter cooling of 2°C at around 6.0 ka, whereas the cooling at ca. 3.0 ka might be the result of a spring temperature cooling of 2–3°C. The events, lasting several hundred years, are apparently synchronous with those in the Aegean Sea, where they have been related to known cooling events from the Greenland ice‐core record. A distinct interruption in Adriatic Sea sapropel S1 is not clearly accompanied by a local drop in winter temperatures, but seems to be forced by ventilation, which probably occurred earlier in the Aegean Sea and was subsequently transmitted to the Adriatic Sea. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of a data‐based mechanistic modelling (DBM) approach for predicting runoff generation in semi‐arid regions

This paper addresses the application of a data‐based mechanistic (DBM) modelling approach using transfer function models (TFMs) with non‐linear rainfall filtering to predict runoff generation from a semi‐arid catchment (795 km²) in Tanzania. With DBM modelling, time series of rainfall and streamflow were allowed to suggest an appropriate model structure compatible with the data available. The model structures were evaluated by looking at how well the model fitted the data, and how well the parameters of the model were estimated. The results indicated that a parallel model structure is appropriate with a proportion of the runoff being routed through a fast flow pathway and the remainder through a slow flow pathway. Finally, the study employed a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology to evaluate the parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty based on the feasible parameter ranges chosen from the initial analysis of recession curves and calibration of the TFM. Results showed that parameters that control the slow flow pathway are relatively more sensitive than those that control the fast flow pathway of the hydrograph. Within the GLUE framework, it was found that multiple acceptable parameter sets give a range of predictions. This was found to be an advantage, since it allows the possibility of assessing the uncertainty in predictions as conditioned on the calibration data and then using that uncertainty as part of the decision‐making process arising from any rainfall‐runoff modelling project. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.