Assessment of the adequacy of the regional relationships between catchment attributes and catchment response dynamics,calibrated by a multi‐objective approach

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the regionalization method on the basis of a combination of a parsimonious model structure and a multi‐objective calibration technique. For this study, 12 gauged catchments in the Republic of Korea were used. The parsimonious model structure, requiring minimal input data, was used to avoid adverse effects arising from model complexity, over‐parameterization and data requirements. The IHACRES rainfall‐runoff model was applied to represent the dynamic response characteristics of catchments in Korea. A multi‐objective approach was adopted to reduce the predictive uncertainty arising from the calibration of a rainfall‐runoff model, by increasing the amount of information retrieved from the available data. The regional relationships (or models) between the model parameters and the catchment attributes were established via a multiple regression approach, incorporating correlation analysis and stepwise regression on linear and logarithmic scales. The impacts of the parameters, calibrated by the multi‐objective approach, on the adequacy of regional relationships were assessed by comparison with impacts obtained by the single‐objective approach. The regional relationships were well defined, despite limited available data. The drainage area, the effective soil depth, the mean catchment slope and the catchment gradient appeared to be the main factors for describing the hydrologic response characteristics in the areas studied. The overall model performance of the regional models based on the multi‐objective approach was good, producing reasonable results for high and low flows and for the overall water balance, simultaneously. The regional models based on the single‐objective approach yielded accurate predictions in high flows but showed limited predictive capability for low flows and the overall water balance. This was due to the optimal model parameter estimates when using a single‐objective measure. The parameters calibrated by the single‐objective approach decreased the predictability of the regional models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative probabilistic assessment of the hydrological performance of reconstructed and natural watersheds

The oil sands industry has committed to returning the mine sites to a productive condition. The reconstructed soil covers must have sufficient available water holding capacity (AWHC) to supply enough moisture over the growing season, to promote vegetation. In order to assess the sustainability of various soil cover alternatives, a generic, system dynamic watershed model entitled GSDW was used along with the available historical meteorological records to estimate the maximum soil moisture deficit and annual evapotranspiration fluxes. A probabilistic framework was adopted; consequently, frequency curves of the maximum annual moisture deficit values are constructed and used to assess the probability that various reconstructed and natural watersheds can provide the associated moisture demands. In general, the study showed a tendency for the reconstructed watershed to provide less moisture for evapotranspiration than natural systems. Watersheds of various soil types, layering, thicknesses and topography were studied. The gained knowledge was used to predict the possible performance of a hypothetical reclamation cover. The results indicated that the hypothetical cover performed in a similar manner to the thickest existing soil cover which confirmed a high probability of that cover to survive under the same existing climatic conditions. Moreover, this probabilistic framework was found to be useful for integrating information gained from natural watersheds (e.g. the canopy of mature natural systems and transfer the results to the reconstructed system). The results show that the canopy influenced the moisture deficit regime positively which signifies a greater possibility that reconstructed covers will adapt to vegetation type. In brief, the adopted approach enables better understanding of the response of reconstructed systems via multiple simulations of ‘what‐if’ scenarios using different soil/vegetation alternatives. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CHOSEN: A synthesis of hydrometeorological data from intensively monitored catchments and comparative analysis of hydrologic extremes

Comparative hydrology has been hampered by limited availability of geographically extensive, intercompatible monitoring data on comprehensive water balance stores and fluxes. These limitations have, for example, restricted comprehensive assessment of multiple dimensions of wetting and drying related to climate change and hampered understanding of why widespread changes in precipitation extremes are uncorrelated with changes in streamflow extremes. Here, we address this knowledge gap and underlying data gap by developing a new data synthesis product and using that product to detect trends in the frequencies and magnitudes of a comprehensive set of hydroclimatic and hydrologic extremes. CHOSEN (Comprehensive Hydrologic Observatory Sensor Network) is a database of streamflow, soil moisture, and other hydroclimatic and hydrologic variables from 30 study areas across the United States. An accompanying data pipeline provides a reproducible, semi-automated approach for assimilating data from multiple sources, performing quality assurance and control, gap-filling and writing to a standard format. Based on the analysis of extreme events in the CHOSEN dataset, we detected hotspots, characterized by unusually large proportions of monitored variables exhibiting trends, in the Pacific Northwest, New England, Florida and Alaska. Extreme streamflow wetting and drying trends exhibited regional coherence. Drying trends in the Pacific Northwest and Southeast were often associated with trends in soil moisture and precipitation (Pacific Northwest) and evapotranspiration-related variables (Southeast). In contrast, wetting trends in the upper Midwest and the Rocky Mountains showed few univariate associations with other hydroclimatic extremes, but their latitudes and elevations suggested the importance of changing snowmelt characteristics. On the whole, observed trends are incompatible with a ‘drying-in-dry, wetting-in-wet’ paradigm for climate-induced hydrologic changes over land. Our analysis underscores the need for more extensive, longer-term observational data for soil moisture, snow and evapotranspiration.     

Escaping the Territorially Trapped East Asian Developmental State Thesis

Using a multiscalar approach, there has been a recent increase in geographic critiques of the East Asian developmental state thesis (DST). These critiques argue that the existing DST literature is epistemologically caught in a territorial trap. There has been less concern, however, about the methodology related to this research. In this article, I suggest that scholars consider not only the epistemological perspective but also the methodological dimension to effectively exploit the less territorially trapped DST research. Based on these analyses, this article emphasizes that interdisciplinary research using a multiscalar methodology and epistemology is required to better explain economic development in East Asia.     

加拿大西北航道与俄罗斯北方海航道管理的对比研究

加拿大和俄罗斯分别是北极西北航道与北方海航道的实际管理者。本论文采用对比研究的方式分析两国北极航道管理举措的异同点,以此为切入点,深入解析两国航道主权诉求的异同点,了解两国在诉求北极航道主权及实现航道经济潜能之间的权衡,探究两国对待未来北极航道商业通航的态度。并且,两国不同的北极航道管理举措还可以揭示各自对航道在国家政治军事安全重要性的认知差异、对海域环境保护的不同重视程度。北极航道管理举措折射出两国北极航道的政策现状及走向,围绕其展开的对比研究有助于国际社会更好应对未来北极航道的全面商业通航。     

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Human–environment interaction in the Baltic Sea

A model based on a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) has been constructed for the Baltic Sea with the aim of investigating future scenarios of human activities in the region and informing environmental management strategies, such as those developed under a Science and Policy Integration for Coastal Zone Assessment Systems Approach Framework application. This paper describes necessary refinements to take into account historical influences on this relatively enclosed system. BBNs are static models and therefore do not incorporate feedback loops, whereas natural systems clearly display feedback mechanisms. This paper describes the implementation of one step feedback loops into a BBN model in an attempt to partly remove this constraint. Feedback loops within this stochastic model were shown to improve its accuracy. The drivers, both natural and anthropogenic, having greatest impact on the environment are identified. These refinements were made to improve its accuracy in modelling the system and gives insights into the functioning of that system.     

Optimal Design of Equivalent Water Depth Truncated Mooring System Based on Baton Pattern Simulated Annealing Algorithm简

The highest similarity degree of static characteristics including both horizontal and vertical restoring force-displacement characteristics of total mooring system, as well as the tension-displacement characteristics of the representative single mooring line between the truncated and full depth system are obtained by annealing simulation algorithm for hybrid discrete variables （ASFHDV, in short）. A“baton” optimization approach is proposed by utilizing ASFHDV. After each baton of optimization, if a few dimensional variables reach the upper or lower limit, the boundary of certain dimensional variables shall be expanded. In consideration of the experimental requirements, the length of the upper mooring line should not be smaller than 8 m, and the diameter of the anchor chain on the bottom should be larger than 0.03 m. A 100000 t turret mooring FPSO in the water depth of 304 m, with the truncated water depth being 76 m, is taken as an example of equivalent water depth truncated mooring system optimal design and calculation, and is performed to obtain the conformation parameters of the truncated mooring system. The numerical results indicate that the present truncated mooring system design is successful and effective.     

几个能量法获取地球重力场模型的关键技术分析

介绍了能量法恢复地球重力场的基本原理,并分别给出了在笛卡尔坐标空间、极坐标空间内的能量守恒公式,探讨了能量常数精度、计算方式与地球重力场反演精度的关系,并通过数值试验进行了计算分析。计算结果表明:对于低轨卫星,在不同坐标空间内转换引起的轨道误差为10-10m量级,对恢复地球重力场模型的阶误差RMS为10-21量级,可以忽略不计;为了获取厘米级的大地水准面,在解算过程中应该将扰动位期望为零时对应的估值作为能量常数初始估计值,将其残差作为未知数一并求解,且能量常数误差应优于0.1 m2s2。     

省直管市（县）体制下建设用地监管技术研究

面向解决省直体制下市（县）建设用地管理业务监管难度大问题,研究建设用地全过程监管关键技术,设计该模式下的监管模式、技术架构、业务模型和数据模型,实现省直管市（县）模式下的建设用地批前、批中、批后＂批-供-用-补-查-登＂全过程监管。