UTAH'S GREAT SALT LAKE: A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTAL‐SOCIETAL SYSTEM*

ABSTRACT. The Great Salt Lake in Utah is a highly complex system, consisting of physical and chemical lake properties and environmental and societal subsystems. Components of these subsystems interact in many nonintuitive ways, with the result that changes and management decisions in one part of the lake system can produce unexpected changes elsewhere. The management history of the lake does not show serious consideration of these interconnections, although recent efforts suggest that this may be changing. Legislative and financial support will be required if integrated management of this unique resource is to succeed.     

Peak displacement demand of small to moderate magnitude earthquakes in stable continental regions

A theoretical fault‐slip model has been developed for predicting the notional peak displacement demand (PDD) of earthquakes based on a limiting natural period of 5 s, for application in stable continental regions (SCRs). The developed theoretical expression is simple and robust. Importantly, it envelops predictions arising from a number of existing empirical and seismological (stochastic) models included in the comparison. The notional PDD prediction has been made initially for hard rock crustal conditions and at a reference source–site distance of 30 km. Factors have accordingly been introduced to correct for different distances and geological conditions in completing the PDD prediction model. Assuming displacement‐controlled behaviour, the predicted notional PDD may be compared with the displacement capacity of a structure, or component, for purposes of seismic stability assessment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transboundary biodiversity conservation of the Pha Taem Protected Forest Complex: A bioregional approach

With the financial assistance from the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), the Thailand's Royal Forest Department (RFD) has initiated a strategy for cooperation in transboundary biodiversity conservation with Cambodia and Laos. The Pha Taem Protected Forest Complex (PPFC) in northeastern region was chosen as a pilot project because of the increasing pressure on biodiversity from illegal trade in plants and wildlife across the tri-national borders. The PPFC covers five protected areas in Thailand and adjoins the Phouxeingthong National Biodiversity Conservation Area (NCBA) in Laos and the Cambodia's Protected Forest for Conservation of Genetic Resources of Plants and Wildlife. Two important outputs derived from the project phase I (2001–2004) were a long-term management plan in a framework of transboundary biodiversity conservation and initiative cooperation between the three countries. Cooperation is achieved at certain level and Laos is reluctant to nominate the Phouxeingthong NBCA for inclusion in the project's second phase. In addition, forest cover in buffer zone has been encroached for agricultural practices. The ecological management zones using bioregional approach was developed to provide a framework for transboundary biodiversity conservation in the adjoining protected forests and reducing the conflict of resource uses by local residents in the buffer zone.     

Rapid zonation of abrupt mass movement hazard: Part I. General principles

Hazards caused by mass movement cost many human lives and cause severe damage to property. Accurate zonation of such hazards provides an important tool for preventive measures. Previous approaches for mass movement hazard zonation are costly because they require large amounts of data, time and labor, and are only applicable to specific local areas. In this paper, a Rapid Zonation of Abrupt Mass-movement Hazard (RZAMH), applicable to large regions, is proposed. It involves the selection of appropriate zonation principles, routes, units, and indexes that can be used for the classification of reference groups, identification of matching groups of test sites, evaluation of blank test sites, and coalescence of sub-regions into specified zonation areas. The K-means clustering method is used in the classification processes. The applicability of the RZAMH approach to a large area implies that the number of reference sites required to build the reference groups is not of primary importance as long as the reference sites are representative. Therefore, for large areas, the RZAMH approach would be more economical than other conventional methods. The RZAMH approach is probably applicable to all abrupt mass movement hazards including rock falls, landslides, and debris flows.     

枯水频率分析线型的比较研究

概述了枯水频率分析的研究进展,采用PE3分布、Gumbel分布、GL分布、GP分布和Weibull分布等5种线型拟合枯水流量系列,所有分布均采用线性矩法估计参数。统计试验方法用于比较上述分布拟合枯水流量的优劣,结果表明在变差系数较小时,二参数分布能获得较优的结果；当变差系数较大时,三参数分布的模拟精度高于二参数分布。基于实测枯水流量系列的比较研究结果证明了统计试验的结论,且在水文系列变差系数较小的流域能获得较高的模拟精度。     

影响辽东半岛的热带气旋降水分析

选取移动路径和转向趋势极为相似的两个热带气旋——9711（Winnie）和9406（Tim）为例，对其路径、降水量、移动速度进行对比分析，结果表明，Winnie路径偏东，转向后移动速度增幅大，在辽东半岛地区的降水量大；Tim路径偏西，转向后移动速度增幅小，强降水偏西。并针对其在辽东半岛造成的降水量的差异，采用NCEP全球分析资料，诊断分析其环境流场和结构特征，分析表明，除了地形和海洋的影响，副热带高压位置、高低空急流和锋区与辽东半岛地区的强降水有直接关系。Winnie影响期间，有利、稳定的副高位置使来自东南和西南的暖湿空气输送到辽东半岛上空，并阻挡着低压系统东移出海，使降水持续增加；高低空急流在高空急流人口区上升支环流圈内耦合，对流层上层强辐散场的抽吸作用及高位涡的向下输送，有利于气旋的发展加强；东、西两侧冷空气作用使其变性加强，形成温带气旋，引起强降水。Tim影响期问，副高中心偏西、偏北，高低空急流在高空急流出口区下沉支环流圈内相互作用，其上空辐散强度较弱，只是Winnie的八分之一，不利于气旋的发展加强；Tim位于高空槽后，获得负涡度平流，在东部弱冷空气作用下，引起台风弱变性，并没有形成气旋，在东北地区被西风槽合并后消失，辽东半岛只出现10mm以下的降水。     

Pseudo-dynamic approach of seismic active earth pressure behind retaining wall

Knowledge of seismic active earth pressure behind rigid retaining wall is very important in the design of retaining wall in earthquake prone region. Commonly used Mononobe-Okabe method considers pseudo-static approach, which gives the linear distribution of seismic earth pressure in an approximate way. In this paper, the pseudo-dynamic method is used to compute the distribution of seismic active earth pressure on a rigid retaining wall supporting cohesionless backfill in more realistic manner by considering time and phase difference within the backfill. Planar rupture surface is considered in the analysis. Effects of a wide range of parameters like wall friction angle, soil friction angle, shear wave velocity, primary wave velocity and horizontal and vertical seismic accelerations on seismic active earth pressure have been studied. Results are provided in tabular and graphical non-dimensional form with a comparison to pseudo-static method to highlight the realistic non-linearity of seismic active earth pressures distribution.     

Bayesian approach to daily rainfall modelling to estimate monthly net infiltration using the Thornthwaite water budget and Curve Number methods

The Thornthwaite and Mather water budget is a simple and frequently applicable tool to estimate surpluses of water, which are not stored in the soil profile. Combining it with the empiric CN-method of the US Soil Conservation Service (US-SCS), which is applied to daily rainfall records, it is possible to estimate the runoff, and this way, from the difference between surpluses and runoff, to estimate the net infiltration that would recharge a phreatic aquifer. In order to apply both methods during a sequence of years, it is necessary to predict the number of rain events per month, and the rainfall depth for each event. In this work, the author proposes a methodology based on the theorem of Bayes to estimate the number of occurrences of rainy events in a considered month conditioning the forecast to the monthly rainfall. In addition, an exponential distribution to generate rainfall depth knowing the monthly rainfall was done. Both algorithms were applied in four stations of the southern region of Santa Fe province (Argentina). More than 7,600 forecasts of rain occurrences and rainfall depths were compared with the observed records. Moreover, the runoff values estimated by means of the US-SCS method, using the observed rainfall and using rainfalls predicted with the algorithms were also compared. In both cases, the obtained results were also very satisfactory. The proposed methodologies allow the correct application of the balance of Thornthwaite and Mather together with the US-SCS method and a good forecast of monthly runoff and net infiltration.     

THE ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE LIAODONG PENINSULA

1 INTRODUCTION Tropical cyclones (TCs) moving north and getting to the Liaodong Peninsula and waters of the Yellow and Bohai Seas are in their late phase of life cycle.While weakening rapidly, TCs carry a large amount of warm and humid air that forms heavy rainfall by itself on the one hand and interact with westerlies in the middle latitudes on the other.     

成都地磁台地磁总强度数字与模拟资料对比

对成都地磁台两年多(2002~2004年)的地磁总强度数字与模拟观资料进行了对比分析,结果表明:由于数字观测资料与模拟观测资料取数的个数不同,两者的曲线变化形态不同。模拟地磁总强度的形态为近直线型,而数字化地磁总强度则有显著的日动态变化。但数字观测资料经过平均处理后产生的日均值与模拟观测日值大致相同。据现有资料,数字化地磁总强度的映震能力优于模拟地磁总强度。