破除西部经济发展中的自然资源比较优势"陷阱"

西部地区长期对天然资源初级产品的依赖使其经济发展跌入了自然资源比较优势“陷阱”,导致西部经济相对于东部经济发展的滞后,这将严重降低入世后中国经济整体竞争力的提高速度。基于此,本文试图从价值观重构理论出发,破除西部经济发展中的自然资源比较优势“陷阱”,进而提高西部经济发展速度,实现东西部经济的协调发展。     

长江沿线样带农村宅基地转型

利用样带这一综合与集成研究的工具,选取无论是在社会经济发展程度还是自然环境要素变化等方面都存在明显梯度的长江沿线样带为研究区,采用横向比较的研究方法,基于一定的理论假设,研究了区内的农村宅基地转型。研究表明：1987~2001年研究区根据土地利用变化的聚集度指数划分的各区段农村宅基地在建设用地增加中所占比例总体上看,从上游至下游,从甘孜-玉树区到泸州-迪庆区、恩施-重庆区、铜陵-宜昌区直至上海-巢湖区,这一比例逐渐降低;长江沿线样带各区段所处的农村宅基地转型阶段与样带内各区段所处的经济发展水平相吻合,基本上验证了此前的理论假设。据此,目前由各省 (区、市) 自行制定农村宅基地标准不利于实现土地的集约利用,国家应根据区域经济发展水平和自然条件的差异分区、分类制定农村宅基地标准。针对研究区目前农村宅基地的发展现状,根据区域农村宅基地转型阶段提出了相应的管理对策。     

基于FLAC3D岩石黏弹塑性流变模型的二次开发研究

由于岩土介质的复杂多样性,通用分析软件所提供的岩石流变本构模型往往不能满足工程实际数值分析的需要。依据FLAC3D（Version 2.1）所提供的二次开发程序接口,结合西原黏弹塑性流变模型分析了二次开发程序运行的基本原理,给出了西原流变模型具体实施的程序框图和代码编写中应该注意的几个关键技术。通过一个简单的算例验证了程序编制的正确性与可靠性。由于采用了面向对象的程序技术,FLAC3D二次开发接口更加简单实用,提供的研究思路可为其他流变本构模型的二次开发提供参考。     

带桩筏基系统的弹塑性分析与设计方法研究

采用ABAQUS有限元程序中的线性扩展D-P模型对带桩筏基下的地基土进行弹塑性模拟,建立了带桩筏基系统的ABAQUS程序三维有限元模型。经比较各种桩、筏基础的内力与沉降关系计算结果,得到了带桩筏基的一些工作特性。在此基础上结合《建筑地基基础设计规范》(GB5007-2002),改进了传统的复合桩基设计方法,讨论了“三阶段”设计理念的可行性,并将其应用于工程实例。分析结果表明,改进的复合桩基设计方法和“三阶段”设计方法较常规设计方法更加经济合理。     

应用线性光谱分离技术研究喀斯特地区土地覆被变化——以贵州省关岭县为例

喀斯特地区土地覆被主要类型除了和非喀斯特地区一样的植被和裸露土壤外,还存在一个广泛分布的裸露基岩,一般遥感处理方法不具备直接定量提取这三类土地覆被参数的能力。基于地物光谱线性混合模型的线性光谱分离技术,可以在亚象元的尺度上直接获取植被覆盖、裸露土壤和裸露基岩等在各象元区域内的比例,非常适合用于喀斯特地区的土地覆被变化的研究。本文利用1987年2月17日和1999年12月27日LandsatTM各6波段遥感影像,使用ENVI软件,分离出植被、裸露土壤、裸露岩石和阴影等土地覆被丰度和RMS的空间分布。对比结果表明,研究区1987～1999年,植被覆盖率上升593%,裸露土壤面积下降1215%,裸露基岩面积上升408%。表明研究区尽管植被在恢复、水土流失总量在减少,但石漠化面积在明显上升,生态形势依旧严峻。     

A Numerical Study on Effects of Land-Surface Heterogeneity from ‘Combined Approach’ on Atmospheric Process Part II: Coupling-Model Simulations

Two land surface schemes, one the standard Biosphere / Atmosphere Transfer Scheme Version le (B0Z) and the other B1Z based on B0Z and heterogeneously-treated by ‘combined approach’ , were coupled to the meso-scale model MM4, respectively. Through the calculations of equations from the companion paper, parameters representing land surface heterogeneity and suitable for the coupling models were found out. Three cases were simulated for heavy rainfalls during 36 hours, and the sensitivity of short-term weath-er modeling to the land surface heterogeneity was tested. Through the analysis of the simulations of the three heavy rainfalls, it was demonstrated that B1Z, compared with B0Z, could more realistically reflect the features of the land surface heterogeneity, therefore could more realistically reproduce the circulation and precipitation amount in the heavy rainfall processes of the three cases. This shows that even short-term weather is sensitive to the land surface heterogeneity, which is more obvious with time passing, and whose influence is more pronounced in the lower layer and gradually extends to the middle and upper layer. Through the analysis of these simulations with B1Z, it is suggested that the bulk effect of smaller-scale fluxes (i.e., the momentum, water vapor and sensible heat fluxes) near the significantly-heterogeneous Land surface is to change the larger-scale (i.e., meso-scale) circulation, and then to influence the development of the low-level jets and precipitation. And also, the complexity of the land-atmosphere interaction was shown in these simulations.     

Daily reservoir inflow forecasting using artificial neural networks with stopped training approach

In this paper, an early stopped training approach (STA) is introduced to train multi-layer feed-forward neural networks (FNN) for real-time reservoir inflow forecasting. The proposed method takes advantage of both Levenberg–Marquardt Backpropagation (LMBP) and cross-validation technique to avoid underfitting or overfitting on FNN training and enhances generalization performance. The methodology is assessed using multivariate hydrological time series from Chute-du-Diable hydrosystem in northern Quebec (Canada). The performance of the model is compared to benchmarks from a statistical model and an operational conceptual model. Since the ultimate goal concerns the real-time forecast accuracy, overall the results show that the proposed method is effective for improving prediction accuracy. Moreover it offers an alternative when dynamic adaptive forecasting is desired.     

An integrated approach to scaling issues in environmental change study

IntroductionOn the basis of our understanding of ecological principles, we can expect that global changes in climate, atmospheric composition and land use should affect the structure, function, productivity and the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems[1-3]. It is crucial for scientists to gain capacity to obtain sufficient data and effective understanding of ecosystem behaviors at larger scales, to extent models developed from local experiments to large areas where ground truth data are s…     

恒星临边昏暗系数的测定

介绍一种新的一级挖和二级近似描述恒星大气临边昏境现象方法,其临边昏境系数可通过有关物理量的直接测量或测量流量和辅助量恒星表面温度的方法间接给出。与太阳观测比较和数值模型大气方法比较,均显示新方法能够以很精确的方式描述恒星临边昏境关系,或确定其相应系数 方法对太阳观测的１７６个数据比较了统计方差,其中直接法的一级挖和二级挖分别为０．３８％和０．２６％;间接法的方差与此相近而略大;与数值模型大气比较其     

长江流域可持续发展能力评价

阐述了可持续发展能力的概念和特点,提出了可持续发展能力评价的指标体系和方法,并以长江流域７省１市人例,从自然和经济的角度评价了长江流域各省市９０年代以来可持续发展能力的动态变化。评价结果表明：９０年代以来,长江流域各省区人工资本积累能力、人力资源和科学技术资源支持能力总体上为持续上升趋势,但各省区增长的速度略有差异;而自然资源的支持能力为不断下降趋势,同时人口压力还在不断加大;环境资源支持能力各省