山西定襄七岩泉新旧测氡仪水氡测值稳定性及映震分析

2014年山西定襄七岩泉新增BHC-336智能定标器,对新、旧2套测氡仪的水氡测值,就稳定性、数据一致性、内在质量等进行对比分析,结果显示,因存在系统误差,2台测氡仪水氡测值稳定性均值存在差异,测量精度和性能具有一致性;与新测氡仪相比,旧测氡仪水氡测值相对偏差和均值标准误差更小,精度更高,数据相关程度较高,数据稳定性更好。定襄水氡对华北5级以上地震具有较好的映震能力,新测氡仪对2016年4月7日原平4.6级地震映震效能比旧测氡仪灵敏。     

茂名近海、近岸及陆地站点气象要素对比分析

基于广东省茂名近海海洋浮标站、近岸海上平台站以及陆地电白基准站1年的观测数据,对比分析了风速、风向、温度和湿度的变化特征。(1)三个站点全年的主导风向均呈双峰状,只是主导风向有差异,海洋浮标站和海上平台站以东北风为主,偏南风为辅;而电白基准站主要是东北风和东南风。三个站点的月平均风速最小值都是在8月;最大值海洋浮标站出现在1月,海上平台站为11月,而电白基准站为4月。(2)电白基准站和海上平台站温度年平均日变化呈现出“一谷一峰”型特征;海上浮标站早上有一个低谷,但是峰值不太明显。三个站点月平均温度都是上半年呈上升趋势,下半年呈下降趋势。海洋浮标站纬度更南,受到陆地影响最小,全年高温持续时间最长。(3)三个站点的湿度年平均日变化都是呈“一峰一谷”型,即早晚湿度高,中午到下午低。从日变化振幅上看,电白基准站最大,海上平台站次之,海洋浮标站最小。三个站点湿度月平均都是2—8月湿度较大,最低月份出现在东北季风盛行的11—12月。海洋浮标站出现高湿度的月份最长;海上平台站因为受到陆地的影响,在中午和下午会出现较明显的低值区域。(4)受下垫面的影响,三个站点的风速、温度和湿度的日较差全年平均值,最...     

基于年际增量法的卷积神经网络模型对中国夏季降水的预测研究

将前冬的500 hPa位势高度、向外长波辐射和海表温度的年际增量作为预测因子,建立基于卷积神经网络(Convolutional Neural Network, CNN)的非线性预测模型,对中国160个测站夏季降水展开预测研究,并与基于线性奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition, SVD)的预测模型进行效果对比。结果表明：CNN在1981—2020年的交叉检验中所回报的降水平均PS评分和距平相关系数(ACC)分别为74.33和0.12,比SVD高2.15和0.06,说明CNN比SVD在整体上对夏季降水具有更好的预测能力。其中,CNN对SVD预测较好年份的预测效果提升较为明显,对SVD预测较差的年份则改进不大。CNN对中国降水预测存在一定的系统性偏差,订正后CNN对拉尼娜年的降水预测改进较大。结果表明,基于年际增量法的CNN预测模型展示出较好的潜在应用价值。     

The missing middle: Central Arctic Ocean gaps in fishery research and science coordination

The warming global climate is reducing sea-ice coverage in the central Arctic, transforming a mostly inaccessible marine region into a 'new' and relatively poorly studied ocean. History shows that exploitation of newly accessible natural resources tends to precede effective research and management measures. But in response to increasing access to the central Arctic, a precautionary approach has been taking hold, with broad political and scientific support culminating in the Oslo Declaration of 2015, which aims to prevent unregulated high seas fishing in the central Arctic. Negotiations toward a full binding agreement are continuing. Formal efforts toward assessing knowledge of the Arctic marine ecosystems and coordinating research are underway, and practitioner-based research coordination and collaboration in the region is also ongoing. Yet broad gaps in our current marine research and coordination exist, and this paper draws attention to the spatial middle, middle trophics, and the middle scale — an Arctic 'missing middle'. Scientific activity in the central Arctic Ocean region is burgeoning in recent years, and a large number of initiatives, projects, and arrangements are meeting some of the need for coordination. But full pan-Arctic scientific coordination does not yet exist. In support of ecosystem-based and precautionary management of the central Arctic Ocean, this paper considers a fully Arctic-focused organization that can both orchestrate and prioritize marine research in the Arctic in view of policy imperatives, and bring emerging scientific understanding of the region directly into the discussion and formation of new policy.     

Evaluation of the carrying capacity of marine industrial parks: A case study in China

Carrying capacity is an important index used to evaluate the status of regional resources, ecological environment, and regional economic development. Marine industrial parks have gained substantial attention from domestic and foreign investors and governments at all levels; in particular, these parks are an essential part of the national blue economy development plan of the Chinese government. The carrying capacity of a marine industrial park is important to all related stakeholders. In this study, an evaluation system was established based on the literature review and expert interviews by using 32 indices under three dimensions (pressure, bearing, and transformation) to determine the carrying capacity of a marine industrial park. The carrying capacity of marine industrial parks in Shandong Province was evaluated using this system across diverse dimensions by incorporating state space and analytic hierarchy processes. Results indicated that carrying capacity significantly differed among regions, parks, and specific dimensions. Comparison among different types of marine industrial parks indicated that the modern marine service industry and fishery industrial parks showed improved and efficient development with relatively high bearing rates. By contrast, the modern marine manufacturing industry and strategic emerging industrial parks were significantly underdeveloped. This study proposes academic approaches and practical implications for the involved governments and managing committees. Furthermore, suggestions on park planning, policy support, industrial cluster, and industry–university–research institute alliances are provided to the government and enterprise perspectives to increase the carrying capacity of marine characteristic industrial parks.     

Satoumi concept illustrated by sustainable bottom-up initiatives of Japanese Fisheries Cooperative Associations

“Satoumi” is a Japanese term meaning a seascape where human-ecosystem interaction has resulted in increased biodiversity and productivity, thus improving the health of the environment and its ecosystem services. However, this definition does not do justice to the universality of the concept, and the holistic ideas and related valuable practices promoted by the term, applicable to fisheries science, contributing thus to the neglect of the term in the international stage. This article explores the importance of environmental, commercial, and research activities related to Satoumi, based on actions implemented by Fisheries Cooperative Associations (FCAs) of different prefectures in Japan. The examined case studies are bottom-up initiatives undertaken by Japanese fishermen and constitute effective means towards sustainable and competitive fisheries management. Such initiatives play an important role in disseminating the positive effects of the Satoumi approach in Japan, and promote therefore its adoption in other regions of the world as well.     

顾及多方向观测值权比反演地球重力场的动力积分法

考虑到不同坐标系下各个方向观测值对反演地球重力场的频谱贡献不同,建立了顾及多方向观测值权比的动力积分法,并利用该方法反演了高精度的GOCE HL-SST卫星重力场模型.首先,分析了不同坐标系下各个方向观测值与地球重力场信息的响应关系,其中惯性系(IRF)下X、Z方向的观测值分别对扇谐系数、带谐系数最为敏感,Z方向的解算精度在全频段均略高于X、Y方向;地固系(EFRF)下各个方向的独立解算精度均与能量守恒法的解算精度相当;局部指北坐标系(LNOF)下X、Z和Y三个方向的解算精度依次递减,且Y方向在47阶附近有明显"驼峰"现象.其次,比较了不同坐标系下顾及三个方向观测值权比的加权解算模型,其中加权联合解算模型精度在20至70阶次均明显优于等权解算模型,在带谐项和共振阶次精度提升明显,且LNOF下的加权联合解算精度要优于IRF和EFRF.最后,比较了GOCE和CHAMP卫星的模型解算精度,采用本文计算方法,仅利用2个月GOCE轨道观测值解算的模型精度优于包含更长观测时段信息的AIUB-CHAMP01S和EIGEN-CHAMP03S模型,且略优于ASU-GOCE-2months模型.     

Conservation of the freshwater pearl mussel (Margaritifera margaritifera) in the river Rede,UK: Identification of instream indicators for catchment-scale issues

The freshwater pearl mussel (Margaritifera margaritifera) is declining throughout its entire range. On the river Rede, North-East England, the population has been equally declining and shows no apparent recruitment. The study presented here aimed at characterizing water quality and habitat conditions for pearl mussels to identify possible indicators of pressures on the population and inform a restoration and conservation strategy. Water quality monitoring revealed levels of turbidity and suspended sediments to be above the limit set for functional pearl mussel rivers. Substrate sampling revealed silt was present at all sites. A loss of redox potential between the water column and the substrate occurred at all sites, indicating non suitable conditions for juvenile pearl mussels. These investigations suggest that fine sediment input in the river could be one of the factors preventing the development and survival of juvenile mussels while adults face water quality largely affected by high turbidity and high phosphate load. Restoration strategy for the Rede pearl mussel population should focus mainly on limiting sediment and nutrient input in the river throughout the catchment in order to improve habitat for juvenile pearl mussels. This work highlights the need for a catchment-based approach in order to succeed in the conservation of a fragile species.     

中部地区粮食生产比较优势分析与基地建设

中部地区是中国重要的粮食主产基地,在分析中部地区粮食生产规模优势、效率优势、综合比较优势和集中度的基础上,进一步探讨了中部地区粮食生产基地建设对策。结论如下:① 1978 年以来,中部地区水稻和小麦具有稳定的比较优势,而玉米和大豆没有比较优势。其中水稻生产的综合优势指数均在1.10 以上;小麦综合优势表现为稳中有升,从1978 年为1.00 上升到2012 年为1.16;玉米的综合优势指数小于0.80;大豆的综合优势呈现下降趋势,从1978 年为0.90 下降到2012 年为0.80。② 整体从横向来看,水稻、小麦、玉米、大豆四大粮食作物的比较优势结构发生了变化。1978 年规模优势大小顺序为:水稻 > 大豆 > 小麦 > 玉米;效率优势为:小麦 > 水稻 > 玉米 > 大豆;综合优势为:水稻 > 小麦 > 大豆 > 玉米。2012 年规模优势为:水稻 > 小麦 > 大豆 > 玉米;效率优势为:小麦 > 水稻 > 大豆 > 玉米;综合优势为:小麦 > 水稻 > 大豆 > 玉米。③ 中国四大区域中的东部地区、西部地区和东北地区粮食生产的集中度均有波动,唯有中部地区的粮食集中度保持稳定上升,其粮食、水稻、小麦、玉米的集中度由1978 年的28.65%、38.13%、28.83%、16.16%分别上升到2012 年的30.08%、39.87%、42.40%、17.16%,2012 年中部地区粮食、水稻、小麦的集中度位于四大区域之首。④分析表明,中部地区粮食生产在全国的地位越来越重要,应采取各项措施促进中部地区粮食生产的稳定与增长。     

由GOCE高低卫卫跟踪数据反演地球重力场的模拟研究

根据调和分析法、最小二乘法,建立利用扰动位数据解算地球重力场的实用数学模型。结果表明,采用不同数据量和不同采样率的观测数据对重力场模型解算结果有一定影响,不同分辨率的观测数据恢复重力场模型的精度差异较大,调和分析法精度优于最小二乘法。