预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

智能卡和出租车轨迹数据中蕴含城市人群活动模式的差异性分析

当前采用交通流数据量化城市人群活动模式研究已经取得了丰硕的研究成果,但是对于同一区域、同一时段不同类型交通流数据反映城市人群活动模式的共性与差异性仍然知之甚少,直接影响了城市人群活动模式挖掘结果的可解释性与实际应用效果。为此,本文旨在对目前广泛采用的智能卡数据（公交和地铁刷卡）和出租车轨迹数据2种重要的交通流数据,从时空分布模式的差异性、行程距离及距离衰减效应的差异性、空间社团结构的差异性3个方面,探索二者反映城市人群活动模式的差异性：① 采用北京市六环以内区域2016年5月9日至15日的智能卡和出租车轨迹数据进行实验分析,研究发现：① 2种交通流反映出行需求的空间分布呈现出高度相关性,但是在同一空间单元上,2种交通流反映出行需求的时间相关性较低;② 2种交通流的使用率在不同空间位置存在明显差异,仅在城市中心区域使用率较为均衡;③ 2种交通流反映人群行程距离的空间分布、距离衰减效应存在明显差异,公共交通对于促进长距离出行更为重要;④ 从2种交通流发现的空间社团结构都显示了城市的多中心结构特征,但是二者发现社团结构存在的差异性表明两种交通方式对城市空间交互起着不同的作用。本研究有助于深入理解多源交通流反映城市人群活动的内在机理,提升城市人群活动模式在城市规划、交通管理等领域的应用效果。     

甘肃玛曲大水金矿田控矿因素及主矿体特征对比分析

大水金矿田由大水、贡北、格尔托3处大、中型金矿床组成,经过30年巨量探矿工程的投入和持续有效的勘查与研究,整体达到了详查程度,累计查明金资源量约130 t,为典型矿床对比研究提供了理想基地。通过大水金矿田赋矿地层岩性、控矿断裂构造、成矿侵入岩等控矿因素的对比分析认为：大水金矿田赋矿地层岩性以中三叠统马热松多组灰岩为主;控矿断裂、成矿容矿脉岩及其所赋存矿体的规模,以大水特大型金矿明显优于贡北、格尔托中型金矿,大水金矿主要以NWW向压扭性主干断裂与近SN向放射状张性断裂的交汇部位控制厚富主矿体,贡北以EW向、格尔托以NNW与NE向断裂的交汇部位控制主矿体的分布;中酸性岩体及其派生的酸性岩脉与金成矿关系密切,容矿花岗闪长岩（斑）岩脉及其蚀变方解石大脉在陡倾断裂破碎带中的集中分布,往往指示厚富金矿体的赋存地段。通过3个矿区主矿体的规模、品位、资源量分布等特征的对比分析可以看出,主矿体的规模、品位以大水较贡北、格尔托为大、为富,大水、贡北、格尔托金矿的主矿体资源量分别占矿区的75. 62%、78. 51%和79. 58%,且由普查到详查,主矿体资源量占比有所变化,如大水金矿由70. 59%增加到75. 63%,贡北金矿则由88. 24%降低为84. 16%。     

东北地区一次短时大暴雨β中尺度对流系统分析

利用常规气象探测、FY气象卫星、多普勒天气雷达、地面自动站资料以及NECP、EC高时空分辨率再分析资料,对比分析了2014年8月30日(简称“8.30”)和9月8日(简称“9.08”)南疆西部两次短时强降水天气中尺度特征。结果表明：“8.30”过程发生在高压脊前西北气流内,“9.08”过程出现在低涡底部平直西风带内,两次过程中地面和低空中尺度辐合线均是短时强降水的重要影响系统;造成短时强降水的β中尺度对流云团发展迅速、移动快,两次短时强降水分别产生在对流云团TBB梯度最大处和发展过程中范围最大时。两次过程在雷达回波特征方面存在明显差异,对流风暴质心高度明显不同,“8.30”过程影响系统为高质心γ中尺度超级单体,最强回波高度6 km,具有中低层辐合、高层辐散、旋转特征;“9.08”过程影响系统为低质心γ中尺度普通单体风暴,最强回波高度2 km,雷达径向速度上两次过程边界层辐合线对对流风暴的产生和加强有重要作用。

     

Reliability of X-band Dual-polarization Phased Array Radars Through Comparison with an S-band Dual-polarization Doppler Radar

Based on the observations of a squall line on 11 May 2020 and stratiform precipitation on 6 June 2020 from two X-band dual-polarization phased array weather radars(DP-PAWRs) and an S-band dual-polarization Doppler weather radar(CINRAD/SA-D), the data reliability of DP-PAWR and its ability to detect the fine structures of mesoscale weather systems were assessed. After location matching, the observations of DP-PAWR and CINRAD/SA-D were compared in terms of reflectivity(ZH), radial velocity(V), dif...     

A workflow for Sustainable Development Goals indicators assessment based on high-resolution satellite data

ABSTRACT

For evaluating the progresses towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a global indicator framework was developed by the UN Inter-Agency and Expert Group on Sustainable Development Goals Indicators. In this paper, we propose an improved methodology and a set of workflows for calculating SDGs indicators. The main improvements consist of using moderate and high spatial resolution satellite data and state-of-the-art deep learning methodology for land cover classification and for assessing land productivity. Within the European Network for Observing our Changing Planet (ERA-PLANET), three SDGs indicators are calculated. In this research, harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data are analyzed and used for land productivity analysis and yield assessment, as well as Landsat 8, Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-1 time series are utilized for crop mapping. We calculate for the whole territory of Ukraine SDG indicators: 15.1.1 – ‘Forest area as proportion of total land area’; 15.3.1 – ‘Proportion of land that is degraded over total land area’; and 2.4.1 – ‘Proportion of agricultural area under productive and sustainable agriculture’. Workflows for calculating these indicators were implemented in a Virtual Laboratory Platform. We conclude that newly available high-resolution remote sensing products can significantly improve our capacity to assess several SDGs indicators through dedicated workflows.     

利用GRACE、GPS和绝对重力数据监测斯堪的纳维亚陆地水储量变化

重力卫星GRACE(gravity recovery and climate experiment)监测斯堪的纳维亚半岛陆地水储量变化会受到冰川均衡调整(GIA)信号的严重影响。首先根据该地区绝对重力和GPS并址观测数据计算了GIA重力和垂直位移的实测线性比值,利用该比值和GPS网观测的垂直位移速度场得到了GIA重力。然后,对GRACE观测的重力变化速率进行GIA重力改正,进而可分离陆地水储量变化趋势,避免了使用GIA模型所带来的巨大不确定性,并根据观测数据完整估计了所得结果的不确定性。最后与水文模型作对比分析。结果表明,实测的GIA重力-垂直位移线性比值为0.148±0.020μGal/mm(1Gal=10-2 m/s2),该结果检验了Wahr的理论近似值且与北美实测的结果非常接近。2003年1月至2011年3月期间,斯堪的纳维亚半岛陆地水储量存在明显的增加趋势,信号的主体位于半岛南端的维纳恩湖附近,总的水量增加速率为4.6±2.1km3/a,数据观测期间的累积增加水量为38±17km3。研究结果与WGHM水文模型的结果有较好的一致性,相关系数达到0.69,而与GLDAS水文模型的相关性略小。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Aerial Photography and Remote Sensing. Terrain Analysis and Remote Sensing . JOHN R. G. TOWNSHEND , ed. Environmental Data Use in Computer-assisted Data Handling Systems: The Results of a Survey of Applications in the Pacific Northwest States . KENNETH E. GORDON . Applied Land Use: A Spatial Approach . JOHN F. LOUNSBURY , LAWRENCE M. SOMMERS , AND EDWARD A. FERNALD , eds. The Second Battle of New Orleans: A History of the Vieux Carre Riverfront-Expressway Controversy . RICHARD O. BAUMBACH , JR. AND WILLIAM E. BORAH . Cultural Environmental Archaeology . MYRA SHACKLEY . The Immoral landscape: Female Prostitution in Western Societies . RICHARD SYMANSKI . life Among the Poor in Cairo . UNNI WIKAN , translated by Ann Henning. Women, Work and Property in Northwest India . URSULA SHARMA . The Domestication of Women: Discrimination in Developing Societies . BARBARA ROGERS Economic Optimization in Locational and Transport Analysis . A. G. WILSON , J. D. COELHO , S. M. MACGILL , H. C. W. L. WILLIAMS . New Tools for Economic Development: The Enterprise Zone, Development Bank, and RFC . GEORGE STERNLIEB AND DAVID LISTOKIN , eds. Regional Wage Inflation . R. L. MARTIN , ed. Finding A Place For Energy-Siting Coal Conversion Facilities . FRANK J. CALZONETTI WITH MARK S. ECKERT . Environmental Management, Resources, and Systems Environmentalism. Second Edition . T. O'RIORDAN . Countryside Conservation . BRYN GREEN . Medical Spatial Diffusion: An Historical Geography of Epidemics in an Island Community . A. D. CLIFF , P. HAGGETT , J. K. ORD , AND G. R. VERSEY . Philosophy and Geographic Thought Order and Skepticism: Human Geography and the Dialectic of Science . RICHARD SZYMANSKI AND JOHN A. AGNEW . Measurement of Subjective Phenomena . D. F. JOHNSTON , ed. Conceptions of Space in Social Thought: A Geographic Perspective . ROBERT DAVID SACK . The Association of American Geographers: The First Seventy-five Years: 1904-1979 . PRESTON E. JAMES AND GEOFFREY J. MARTIN . The Life and Thought of Isaiah Bowman . GEOFFREY J. MARTIN . Physical River Basin Planning: Theory and Practice . SURANJIT K. SAHA AND CHRISTOPHER J. BARROW , eds. Soils and landforms: An Integration of Ceomorphology and Pedology . A. I. GERRARD Climatic Change and Society. Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide . WILLIAM W. KELLOGG AND ROBERT SCHWARE . Political Political Redistrictings and Geographic Theory . RICHARD L. MORRILL . Population Studies in Spanish American Population History: Dell Plain Latin American Studies NO. 8 . DAVID J. ROBINSON , ed. Population Redistribution in the Midwest . CURTIS C. ROSEMAN , ANDREW J. SOFRANKO , AND JAMES D. WILLIAMS , eds. Geographical Perspectives on the Elderly . A. M. WARNES , ed. Regional Perspective On the American South . MERLE BLACK AND JOHN SHELTON REED , eds. The Prairies and Plains: Prospects for the 80s . JOHN R. ROGGE , ed. Rural Rural Settlement in an Urban World . MICHAEL BUNCE . Social Accident at Three Mile Island: The Human Dimensions . DAVID L. SILLS , C. P. WOLF , AND VIVIEN B. SHELANSKI , eds. The American Small Town: Twentieth-Century Place Images . JOHN JAKLE . Urban A House of My Own . SUSAN LOBO . The City: Patterns and Processes in the Urban Ecosystem . CHRISTOPHER H. EXLINE , GARY L. PETERS , AND ROBERT P. LARKIN . Movement in Cities . P. W. DANIELS AND A. M. WARNES . Urbanization and Urban Planning in Capitalist Society . MICHAEL DEAR AND ALLEN J. SCOT , eds.     

强度尺度分解方法在气候温度场检验中的应用

本文首次将Casati等提出的强度尺度分解方法应用到气候地表温度场的检验中,探讨此方法用于评估气候模拟场误差的详细空间信息的适用性。以新一代气候系统模式模拟的月平均地表温度为例,传统的统计分析方法（较为常用的是空间相关系数和均方根误差、EOF分析等）不能完全反映模拟场误差的空间信息;强度尺度分解方法可计算不同阈值和空间尺度上的均方误差和模拟技巧,评估对应的模拟能力,定量给出模拟场主要误差的空间信息（误差范围即温度阈值及对应的空间尺度）,例如,亚洲东部地区1月单年及多年平均的模拟场在230 K阈值1600 km模拟技巧非常低。本研究表明强度尺度分解方法适用于气候温度场的检验评估,能定量给出误差的空间信息。     

长江流域可持续发展能力评价

阐述了可持续发展能力的概念和特点,提出了可持续发展能力评价的指标体系和方法,并以长江流域７省１市人例,从自然和经济的角度评价了长江流域各省市９０年代以来可持续发展能力的动态变化。评价结果表明：９０年代以来,长江流域各省区人工资本积累能力、人力资源和科学技术资源支持能力总体上为持续上升趋势,但各省区增长的速度略有差异;而自然资源的支持能力为不断下降趋势,同时人口压力还在不断加大;环境资源支持能力各省