Application of tank,NAM, ARMA and neural network models to flood forecasting

Two lumped conceptual hydrological models, namely tank and NAM and a neural network model are applied to flood forecasting in two river basins in Thailand, the Wichianburi on the Pasak River and the Tha Wang Pha on the Nan River using the flood forecasting procedure developed in this study. The tank and NAM models were calibrated and verified and found to give similar results. The results were found to improve significantly by coupling stochastic and deterministic models (tank and NAM) for updating forecast output. The neural network (NN) model was compared with the tank and NAM models. The NN model does not require knowledge of catchment characteristics and internal hydrological processes. The training process or calibration is relatively simple and less time consuming compared with the extensive calibration effort required by the tank and NAM models. The NN model gives good forecasts based on available rainfall, evaporation and runoff data. The black‐box nature of the NN model and the need for selecting parameters based on trial and error or rule‐of‐thumb, however, characterizes its inherent weakness. The performance of the three models was evaluated statistically. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

自动分离提纯系统的研制及其在同位素分析测试中的应用

传统自然流速层析柱法存在离子容易扩散、流速不可控等问题,而元素的自动分离提纯技术可以提高同位素分析效率,压缩在室内提纯化学元素所需的时间。为了降低这种扩散效应、缩短淋洗时间,本文研制了一种自动分离提纯系统,用于元素的自动分离、提纯。该系统由流体切换阀、柱塞泵、自动进样器等部件构成,所有部件与计算机联接,每个部件可单独控制。该系统装配了两根层析柱,通过控制切换阀,可使两者组合使用,甚至能进行逆向淋洗,这与传统自然流速法完全不同。将海水样品分别通过传统自然流速法和本系统进行淋洗提纯,使用加压自动分离提纯系统后,元素(尤其是阴离子)的扩散效应得到明显改善。上样量均为1.0mL时,采用传统自然流速法,硼元素的淋洗峰宽为2.5～3.0mL,而采用本系统淋洗峰宽仅为1.0mL。自然流速法下,不同酸度淋洗液的淋洗速度不同,而本系统的流速精确可控,可确保流速稳定。本文研制的自动分离提纯系统在分离效果和分离能力上均比传统重力法表现优异,在分离元素进行同位素分析方面具有较大的应用前景。     

基于遗传算法的超声回弹综合法混凝土测强公式

利用30个混凝土试块的超声波声速、回弹、抗压强度实测数据,应用遗传算法建立了新的超声回弹的混凝土强度换算值计算公式,该公式明显改进了高强度区混凝土强度的拟合精度。结果表明,作为一种全局搜索技术,遗传算法在超声回弹综合法测强曲线研制过程中具有实际应用价值。     

组合基础隔震结构双向地震反应分析

本文采用双向耦合恢复力模型模拟组合隔震系统中隔震支座的双向耦合效应,对组合基础隔震结构进行了单向和双向地震反应对比分析,分析表明在水平双向地震作用下结构各层的加速度反应较小,隔震层的层间位移较大,而上部结构的层间位移较小,并且在水平双向地震作用下,支座的最大位移明显大于单向地震作用时支座的最大位移,因而应考虑水平双向地震作用对组合基础隔震结构地震反应和隔震支座性能的影响。     

丽水—椒江凹陷下第三系断裂系统动力机制研究

丽水—椒江凹陷是一个中新生代断陷盆地,断裂构造组成了盆地内的主要构造样式。通过对区域断层剖面组合和平面展布特征的研究,识别出8种类型的断层剖面组合形式,在平面上划分了12个断裂系统区。总体来说本区构造具有东西分带、南北分块的特征,即断裂系统沿北东—南西方向成条带状分布,凹陷南部以地堑式组合为主,北部以地垒式为主。区域断裂系统的演变显示凹陷南北基底基岩存在差异,而且基底发育北西—南东向的断层,从而导致凹陷南部构造活动较北部强。     

支持向量机在重震联合反演中的应用研究

本文对利用支持向量机进行重震联合反演问题做了深入研究,特别是对支持向量机用于重震联合反演时的重力资料的处理、参数选取、特征量的提取等具体实现问题进行了讨论,最后用所设计的支持向量机重震联合反演模型对东营北部区域结晶基底岩做了预测反演,取得了满意的效果.     

A spatial analysis of hydro‐climatic and vegetation condition trends in the Yellow River basin

Stream‐gauge data indicate that the flow of the Yellow River has declined during the past several decades. Zero flow in sections of the river channel, i.e. the Yellow River drying‐up phenomenon, has occurred since the 1970s. In this paper we present an analysis of changes in the spatial patterns of climatic and vegetation condition data in the Yellow River basin based on data from meteorological stations and satellites. The climatic data are from 1960 to 2000 and the vegetation condition data are from 1982 to 2000. The angular‐distance‐weighted interpolation method is used to get climatic data coverage from station observations. The spatial distribution of tendency is detected with Student's t‐test. The spatial patterns of climatic and vegetation condition change was analysed together with the statistical data on human activities. The analysis indicates that the precipitation decreases and temperature increases in most parts of the Yellow River basin, the evaporative demand of the atmosphere decreases in the upper reaches and increases in the lower reaches, and human activities have improved the vegetation condition in the irrigation districts. The Loess Plateau, the Tibetan Plateau, and the irrigation districts are respectively suggested as precipitation, temperature, and human activity hot spots of the Yellow River drying‐up phenomenon. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modification of the Penman method for computing bare soil evaporation

The Penman equation, which calculates potential evaporation, was modified by Staple (1974, Soil Science Society of America Proceedings 38 : 837) to include in it the relative vapour pressure h_s of an unsaturated soil to predict actual evaporation from a soil surface. This improved the prediction when the difference between the temperature of the soil surface and ambient air is relatively small. The objectives of this study were (i) to revise it further using the actual temperature of the soil surface and air to provide the upper boundary condition in computing evaporative flux from the soil surface and (ii) to determine the range of water content for which the modified form of the Penman equation is applicable. The method adopted was tested by a series of outdoor experiments with a clay soil. The method of Staple (1974) overestimated the rate of evaporation above the water content 0·14 m³ m^?3 (up to 30% deviation), whereas the new method agreed well with the measured rates (maximum 7% deviation). Below 0·14 m³ m^?3 water content, both methods underestimated, but the Staple (1974) method deviated more from the measured values: the deviations were above 70% and around 30% for the Staple (1974) and the new methods respectively. Although the new method provided accurate solutions for a wider range of water content from saturation to the lower limit of the liquid phase of a particular soil, the modification did not respond to the vapour phase of the soil moisture. Therefore, in the dry range (i.e. in the vapour phase in which the flow was entirely as vapour), either resistance models or a Fickian equation should be used. Although the effect of salinity on the measured rates was significant, the model erroneously calculated the same rates for both saline and non‐saline conditions. The effect of soil texture can easily be accounted by defining appropriate matric potential water content ψ_m(θ) and soil relative humidity water content h_s(θ) relationships. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用矢栅混合数据模式解决WebGIS技术难题——浏览器调阅空间数据速度问题

空间数据库是比一般的数据库要复杂,尤其在WebGIS中更是如此。因为网络传输和带宽的限制,因此如何有效地进行空间数据的调度和显示就成为WebGIS的技术难点。通过构造矢量和栅格混合WebGIS系统数据结构,并在服务端和客户端建立各自的多级缓冲,采用多线程调度方法,解决一直影响WebGIS系统运行速度瓶颈即网络带宽所带来WebGIS运行速度慢问题,提高WebGIS软件调阅空间数据的调度速度,加快页面响应时间。试验表明,利用矢栅混合数据模式能够有效提高WebGIS系统的空间数据调阅速度。     

一种GNSS网络RTK改进的综合误差内插方法

在全球导航卫星系统（GNSS）网络RTK综合误差内插法（CBI）的基础上，提出了一种改进的综合误差内插方法（MCBI）。该方法把综合误差分为对流层模型改正、一阶电离层影响和除一阶电离层影响外的其他综合影响3个部分。实例证明了该方法不仅在精度上比综舍误差内插法要高，而且更利于流动站的应用。