Safety assessment of infrastructures using a new Bayesian Monte Carlo method

A recently developed Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) method and its application to safety assessment of structures are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional BMC method that was proposed in 2009 by Rajabalinejad in order to develop a weighted logical dependence between successive Monte Carlo simulations. Our main objective in this research is to show that the extended BMC can dramatically improve simulation efficiency by using prior information from modelling and outcomes of preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for an extended BMC method for multi-dimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model and apply these coupled models to assessment of reliability of a flood defence for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans. This is the first successful demonstration of the BMC method to a complex system. We provide a comparison of the numerical efficiency for the BMC, Monte Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Bounds methods that are used in reliability assessment of complex infrastructures.     

Characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico: 1970-2010

This study evaluates impacts from tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls on populated areas located along the Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico. The period of interest is from 1970 through 2010 and an international disaster database is used to identify the impact from the landfalling TCs. More than 30 landfall events occurred during the period; we examined the top 25 TCs based on rainfall accumulation, as well as the top 10 TC-related disasters based on the affected population. Each event resulted in affected population from 20 000 to more than 800 000. Strong winds and heavy rainfall, during periods of one to three days, are associated with property damage and loss of lives. Our results indicate that excessive rainfall accumulations and daily rates, over highly populated areas, are important elements associated with the occurrence of disasters. Six of the top 10 TC-related disasters occurred during El Niño and three during neutral conditions; however, looking at the top 25 events, 10 occurred during El Niño and 10 during neutral conditions. Three case studies that occurred during El Niño events (Liza in 1976, Pauline in 1997, and Lane in 2006) are documented in more detail as they affected areas with different population densities in the southern and northwestern coasts of Mexico.     

海底地下水排放:重要的海岸带陆海相互作用过程

沿海地区海底地下水排放在北美和欧洲等发达地区受到了越来越多的重视,被认为是一个重要的海岸带陆海相互作用过程。但这一过程在我国尚未引起足够认识,有关研究极少见。海底地下水排放的研究历史不长,只是近十多年才有了快速的发展,有了越来越多的定量研究成果。其研究方法主要有水文计算法、现场实测法和地球化学示踪法,各种方法之间的对比实验是目前的热点问题。沿海地下水排放具有重要的环境意义,它可以是陆地营养物质和污染物质的一个重要排放通道,可以对海岸带环境产生一定影响。我国沿海地区应该加强有关的研究工作,为海岸带环境管理作出贡献。     

Spatial and temporal pattern of precipitation and drought in Gansu Province, Northwest China

Drought is one of the most harmful natural hazards in Gansu Province in Northwest China. The changes of precipitation affect the severity of drought. In order to recognize the trend of precipitation and understand the effect of rainfall change on water resources management and drought severity, Mann–Kendall test was used. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated to reconstruct the drought at different time scales and analyze the frequency of drought occurrence in the recent 50 years. The results show that the SPI is applicable in Gansu Province. The number of severe droughts differs among regions: it is more obvious as a 3-month drought in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin than in the Inland River Basin, and other droughts at 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales have the same effect in the three regions. Mann–Kendall test results show that there is an upward trend in the summer periods and a downward trend in the autumn-winter-spring intervals ranging from 10.5 mm/10 years to −37.4 mm/10 years, which affect the local water resources management, droughts mitigation, and agriculture decision making. This situation poses challenges for future study.     

福建沿海地区土壤元素含量特征与地质背景研究

根据福建沿海深层土壤元素含量的统计分析,表明9大类地质体为背景的土壤元素含量存在差异,与均值对比Ag、Au、Sn、Co、Cu的含量受地质背景影响较小,B、Cr、Ni、Li、As、Sb、Hg、Mo、Bi、Cd、Br、C1、S、CaO、I、Na2O含量则影响明显。     

A millennial-scale record of Holocene tsunamis on the Kronotskiy Bay coast, Kamchatka, Russia

Deposits from as many as 50 large tsunamis during the last 7000 years are preserved on the Pacific coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula near the mouth of the Zhupanova River, southern Kronotskiy Bay. These deposits are dated and correlated using Holocene marker tephra layers. The combined, preserved record of tsunami deposits and of numerous marker tephras on Kamchatka offers an unprecedented opportunity to study tsunami frequency. For example, from the stratigraphy along southern Kronotskiy Bay, we estimate frequency of large tsunamis (>5 m runup). In the last 3000 years, the minimum frequency is about one large tsunami per 100 years, and the maximum about one large tsunami per 30 years; the latter frequency occurred from about 0 to 1000 A.D. This time interval corresponds to a period of increased seismicity and volcanic activity that appears to be recorded in many places on the Kamchatka Peninsula.     

The characteristics of Asian dust events in Northeast Asia during the springtime from 1993 to 2004

The characteristics of Asian dust events that occurred in Northeast Asia during the springtime from 1993 to 2004 are investigated using 3-hourly SYNOP reports (World Meteorological Organization). Occurrences of blowing sand and dust storm are low in 1997 and 1999, but have increased rapidly since 2000. The maximum occurrence was recorded in 2002. Wind velocity of 6.5 m s^− 1 as a threshold wind velocity is not so exactly consistent with the occurrence of blowing sand. However, wind velocity of 14 m s^− 1 as a strong wind causing dust storm had similar tendency to those of dust storm and Dust Storm Index.Source regions of Asian dust are divided into three regions (A: dry arid, B: semi-arid, and C: cultivated), based upon the occurrence of blowing sand and dust storm. Eight meteorological stations are selected in three regions, which have frequent occurrences of blowing sand. Source regions of Asian dust that affect the Korean peninsula are gradually extending eastward. Positive anomalies of NDVI occurred in 1994, 1995, and 1998 when temperature was high and precipitation was heavy. However, the frequent occurrence of the dust phenomena is not always consistent with lots of vegetation, high temperature, and much precipitation in this study.     

Manganese and iron distributions off central California influenced by upwelling and shelf width

In July 2002, a combination of underway mapping and discrete profiles revealed significant along-shore variability in the concentrations of manganese and iron in the vicinity of Monterey Bay, California. Both metals had lower concentrations in surface waters south of Monterey Bay, where the shelf is about 2.5 km wide, than north of Monterey Bay, where the shelf is about 10 km wide. During non-upwelling conditions over the northern broad shelf, dissolvable iron concentrations measured underway in surface waters reached 3.5 nmol L⁻¹ and dissolved manganese reached 25 nmol L⁻¹. In contrast, during non-upwelling conditions over the southern narrow shelf, dissolvable iron concentrations in surface waters were less than 1 nmol L⁻¹ and dissolved manganese concentrations were less than 5 nmol L⁻¹. A pair of vertical profiles at 1000 m water depth collected during an upwelling event showed dissolved manganese concentrations of 10 decreasing to 2 nmol L⁻¹, and dissolvable iron concentrations of 12–20 nmol L⁻¹ in the upper 100 m in the north, compared to 3.5–2 nmol L⁻¹ Mn and 0.6 nmol L⁻¹ Fe in the upper 100 m in the south, suggesting the effect of shelf width influences the chemistry of waters beyond the shelf.These observations are consistent with current understanding of the mechanism of iron supply to coastal upwelling systems: Iron from shelf sediments, predominantly associated with particles greater than 20 μm, is brought to the surface during upwelling conditions. We hypothesize that manganese oxides are brought to the surface with upwelling and are then reduced to dissolved manganese, perhaps by photoreduction, following a lag after upwelling.Greater phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and nutrient drawdown were observed over the broad shelf, consistent with the greater supply of iron. Incubation experiments conducted 20 km offshore in both regions, during a period of wind relaxation, confirm the potential of these sites to become limited by iron. There was no additional growth response when copper, manganese or cobalt was added in addition to iron. The growth response of surface water incubated with bottom sediment (4 nmol L⁻¹ dissolvable Fe) was slightly greater than in control incubations, but less than in the presence of 4 nmol L⁻¹ dissolved iron. This may indicate that dissolvable iron is not as bioavailable as dissolved iron, although the influence of additional inhibitory elements in the sediment cannot be ruled out.     

Seagrass landscape-scale changes in response to disturbance created by the dynamics of barrier-islands: A case study from Ria Formosa (Southern Portugal)

This study documents long-term changes of a Zostera noltii landscape induced by a natural cyclic event in a coastal lagoon. The barrier-islands forming this system are very dynamic with drifting movements controlling ecological patterns and processes occurring in this area. Changes in the areal extent of the Z. noltii meadows were assessed using historical aerial photographs from 1940, 1980, 1989, 1996 and 1998. Landscape indices such as total patch area (TA), mean patch size (MPS), number of patches (NP), mean shape coefficient of variation (CV) and landscape fractal dimension (D) were calculated for each year and related to an index of disturbance intensity. The spatial distribution of the Z. noltii meadows varied greatly during the studied period and changes observed were related to the disturbance created by the barrier-islands' spatial dynamics. After an artificial inlet relocation the Z. noltii area, number of patches, patch mean size and coefficient of variation decreased. The fractal dimension of the Z. noltii landscape increased by 50% showing that besides a decrease in total area, number of patches, and patch mean area, patch fragmentation was an important consequence of this anthropogenic disturbance.Seagrass natural distribution patterns changed in response to natural and human-induced activities. This study emphasizes the importance of the landscape approach and the historical perspective when studying seagrass changes and the importance of taking into consideration long-term changes in seagrass landscapes to avoid confusion between man-induced effects with natural cyclic events.