The accuracy of impact estimates relating climate change to regional-scale agricultural production is constrained by the temporal and spatial resolution of climate change projections. Several techniques have been used to compensate for these limitations in order to provide reasonable estimates of the impact of climate change on crop yield. One approach assumes that variability over time can substitute for spatial variability, thereby reducing the need to estimate the impacts at a spatially dense network of stations—an assumption that has not been generally tested. This study evaluates this assumption using methods similar to those employed in the climate impact literature. The findings suggest that current practices are generally defensible if the goal is to provide a range of possible crop responses to climate change. However, the results also show that the assumption is highly sensitive to specific interactions at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface and, consequently, does not hold under certain circumstances. 相似文献
The responses of the climate system to increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO2)arestudied by using a new version of the Bureau of Meteorological Research Centre(BMRC)globalcoupled general circulation model(CGCM).Two simulations are run:one with atmospheric CO2concentration held constant at 330 ppm,the other with a tripling of atmospheric CO2(990 ppm).Results from the 41-year control coupled integration are applied to analyze the mean state,seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the model.Comparisons between the greenhouseexperiment and the control experiment then provide estimations of the influence of increased CO2on climate changes and climate variability.Especially discussed is the question on whether theclimate changes concerned with CO2 inerease will impact interannual variability in tropical Pacific,such as ENSO. 相似文献
To reconstruct the recent climate history in Kamchatka, a series of repeated precise temperature logs were performed in a
number of boreholes located in a broad east-west strip (between 52 and 54°N) in the central part of Kamchatka west of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski.
Within three years more than 30 temperature logs were performed in 10 holes (one up to six logs per hole) to the depth of
up to 400 metres. Measured temperature gradients varied in a broad interval 0 to 60 mK/m and in some holes a sizeable variation
in the subsurface temperatures due to advective heat transport by underground water was observed. Measured data were compared
with older temperature profiles obtained in the early eighties by Sugrobov and Yanovsky (1993). Even when older data are of
poorer precision (accuracy of about 0.1 K), they presented valuable information of the subsurface temperature conditions existing
20–25 years ago. Borehole observations and the inverted ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) used for the paleoclimate
reconstruction were complemented with a detailed survey of meteorological data. Namely, the long-term surface air temperature
(SAT) and precipitation records from Petropavlovsk station (in operation since 1890) were used together with similar data
from a number of local subsidiary meteo-stations operating in Central Kamchatka since 1950. Regardless of extreme complexity
of the local meteorological/climate conditions, diversity of borehole sites and calibration of measuring devices used during
the whole campaign, the results of the climate reconstruction supported a general warming of about 1 K characteristic for
the 20th century, which followed an inexpressive cooler period typical for the most of the 19th century. In the last three
to four decades the warming rate has been locally increasing up to 0.02 K/year. It was also shown that the snow cover played
a dominant role in the penetration of the climate “signal” to depth and could considerably smooth down the subsurface response
to the changes occurred on the surface. 相似文献
Is it possible for all of humanity to enjoy the standards of living of today's high-income countries? What would happen if these limits were reached, perhaps because of climate change or a shortage of natural resources essential to production? How would society manage – or fail to manage – such limits? Notwithstanding the current financial and economic crises, these are perhaps the biggest questions confronting our species (and of a host of other species, who are the victims of our decisions). The article begins by considering the biggest economic event of our lifetimes – the ‘great convergence’ and its implications for the demand for resources. The discussion then turns to a specific limit on our development, climate change, which is different from most other limits, because it involves a global public good: the atmosphere. What such limits might mean for our civilization is discussed. One can persuade people to tackle climate change only if those concerned with the dangers persuade ordinary people that action will not come at the expense of their prosperity. 相似文献