电法勘探的发展和展望

电法勘探在经历了近一个世纪的发展后，其方法理论、仪器设备、野外数据采集、处理和解释等方面都经历了一系列重大变化．本文以方法理论的进展为主线，回顾、展望了目前电法勘探中几个重要而令人关注的研究焦点．这些问题的研究进展将会对21世纪的电法勘探产生深远的影响．     

日地水文学与灾害预测

研究地球水文变化的日地物理成因和规律的日地水文学（Solar-TerrestrialHydrology），用于水、旱灾害预测多次获得证实.本文从日地水文物理基础、长江淮河22年周期性大洪水、黄河大洪水和太阳活动关系、太阳活动双重衰减期北方大旱、17世纪日地水文异常变化、太阳活动对暴雨洪水中短期影响、台湾海峡两侧大暴雨洪水落区转移、全球最大洪水日地水文研究以及学科发展和应用前景九个方面，对中国近70多年来的主要成果加以回顾和总结.基础科学、高科技和应用紧密结合，促成对国民经济发展直接相关的新学科，是当代科学进步的一个显著标志，这里又是一个例证．     

Evaluation of riverbed magnetic susceptibility for mapping biogeochemical hot spots in groundwater-impacted rivers

Redox hot spots occurring as metal-rich anoxic groundwater discharges through oxic wetland and river sediments commonly result in the formation of iron (Fe) oxide precipitates. These redox-sensitive precipitates influence the release of nutrients and metals to surface water and can act as ‘contaminant sponges’ by absorbing toxic compounds. We explore the feasibility of a non-invasive, high-resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS) technique to efficiently map the spatial variations of magnetic Fe oxide precipitates in the shallow bed of three rivers impacted by anoxic groundwater discharge. Laboratory analyses on Mashpee River (MA, USA) sediments demonstrate the sensitivity of MS to sediment Fe concentrations. Field surveys in the Mashpee and Quashnet rivers (MA, USA) reveal several discrete high MS zones, which are associated with likely anoxic groundwater discharge as evaluated by riverbed temperature, vertical head gradient, and groundwater chemistry measurements. In the East River (CO, USA), widespread cobbles/rocks exhibit high background MS from geological ferrimagnetic minerals, thereby obscuring the relatively small enhancement of MS from groundwater induced Fe oxide precipitates. Our study suggests that, in settings with low geological sources of magnetic minerals such as lowland rivers and wetlands, MS may serve as a complementary tool to temperature methods for efficiently mapping Fe oxide accumulation zones due to anoxic groundwater discharges that may function as biogeochemical hot spots and water quality control points in gaining systems.     

Nonequilibrium thermodynamics of pressure solution

This paper is concerned with the thermodynamic theory of solution and precipitation processes in wet crustal rocks and with the mechanism of steady pressure-solution slip in contact zones, such as grain-to-grain contacts, fracture surfaces, and permeable gouge layers, that are infiltrated by a mobile aqueous solution phase. A local dissipation jump condition at the phase boundary is fundamental to identifying the thermodynamic force driving the solution and precipitation process and is used here in setting up linear phenomenological relations to model near-equilibrium phase transformation kinetics. The local thermodynamic equilibrium of a stressed pure solid in contact with its melt or solution phase is governed by Gibbs's relation, which is rederived here, in a manner emphasizing its independence of constitutive assumptions for the solid while neglecting surface tension and diffusion in the solid. Fluid-infiltrated contact zones, such as those formed by rough surfaces, cannot generally be in thermodynamic equilibrium, especially during an ongoing process of pressure-solution slip, and the existing equilibrium formulations are incorrect in overlooking dissipative processes tending to eliminate fluctuations in superficial free energies due to stress concentrations near asperities, defects, or impurities. Steady pressure-solution slip is likely to exhibit a nonlinear dependence of slip rate on shear stress and effective normal stress, due to a dependence of the contact-zone state on the latter. Given that this dependence is negligible within some range, linear relations for pressure-solution slip can be derived for the limiting cases of diffusion-controlled and interface-reaction-controlled rates. A criterion for rate control by one of these mechanisms is set by the magnitude of the dimensionless quantityk/2C _pD, wherek is the interfacial transfer coefficient, is the mean diffusion path length,C _p is the solubility at pressurep, andD is the mass diffusivity.     

Analysis of GAMIT/GLOBK in high-precision GNSS data processing for crustal deformation

The advances in satellite navigation and positioning technology and the worldwide establishment of continuous-tracking stations have greatly promoted the development and application of the high-precision Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). GAMIT/GLOBK, as a popular high-precision GNSS data-processing software, has been widely used in monitoring crustal deformation, tsunami, iceberg, etc. Based on the basic observations and various geophysical models processed by GAMIT/GLOBK, we analyze the influence of the correction of applied geophysical models, and describe the techniques of parameter estimation and accuracy assessment. In addition, taking the present crustal movement in the Chinese mainland and the M_W7.8 earthquake in Nepal as examples, we discuss the applications of GAMIT/GLOBK in crustal deformation monitoring and its future prospect.     

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5

The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation. Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the CPSs for different synoptic situations.     

统计预测、经验预测、物理预测——近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示

从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。     

Very low-grade metamorphic study in the pre-Late Cretaceous terranes of New Caledonia (southwest Pacific Ocean)

Abstract   Pre-Late Cretaceous terranes from the central part of New Caledonia have been metamorphosed under very low-grade conditions by two high-pressure/low-temperature events. The present study investigates the metamorphic patterns with phyllosilicate crystallinities, electron microprobe analyses and petrography. The first metamorphic event is of Late Jurassic age and is characterized by very low (anchizone) to low-grade (epizone) conditions with a decrease of the illite Kübler Index (KI) and the chlorite Árkai Index (ÁI) values from northeast to southwest. This trend is also confirmed by chlorite thermometry. In the south of the area, un-metamorphosed sediments (diagenetic KI values) are observed in the Senonian 'formation à charbons', post-dating the metamorphism in this region. The second metamorphism is an Eocene high-pressure event, which overprints the Late Jurassic metamorphism in the northern part of the studied area. In this zone, the pattern of KI and ÁI indicates another gradient with increasing metamorphic conditions from southwest to northeast. Temperatures calculated by chlorite thermometry also indicate an evolution from southwest to northeast with slight increase of temperature from 298 ± 8°C to 327 ± 16°C. In both metamorphic zones, the K-white mica b cell dimension calculated on micas analyzed at electron microprobe are in good agreement with high-pressure/low-temperature metamorphic conditions (b₀ > 9.04 Å). A combination of chlorite thermometry and K-white mica b cell dimension allows estimation of a minimum pressure of 1.3 GPa in the Eocene zone (in excellent agreement with the 1.5 GPa registered in the northern part of New Caledonia) and a minimum of 1.1 GPa in the Late Jurassic metamorphic part.     

洱源-江川宽角地震剖面的地壳反射特征

通过对洱源-江川宽角反射地震资料的叠前偏移处理成像,得到了一个类似于近垂直入射多道地震数据的记录剖面.反射剖面图像与地壳速度结构共同揭示出地壳厚度由剖面西北端(约45 km)向东南端(约40 km)减薄.在洱源-楚雄西北附近深度约10 km处存在一组向东南倾斜的强反射震相,其东南约50 km处存在向西北倾斜的强射震相.易门断裂两侧地壳反射属性具有明显的差异,易门断裂之西北方向深度25～40 km处,中下地壳内存在两组强振幅,向东南方向上倾的地震反射同相轴,并被楚雄-建水断裂后期所错断,易门断裂之东南方向上,地壳内反射较为均一,未见特别明显的强间断面反射信息,这个反射结构被解释为印度板块东向俯冲与藏东缘地壳物质东向逃逸综合作用导致下地壳增厚和厚地壳变形的结果.     

东经120°E中间层和低热层大气潮汐及其季节变化特征

利用为期一年的卫星遥感温度（SABER/TIMED）资料重建了120°E子午圈内中间层和低热层大气潮汐各主要频率分量（周日、半日和8小时潮汐）.这些主要频率分量随高度振幅增大，在97 km高度达到显著的振幅；其中迁移性周日潮汐在97 km高度出现极大振幅，然后随高度衰减.本文从考察迁移性成分和非迁移性成分各自在总潮汐中贡献角度出发，着重讨论了那些对形成该子午圈中97 km高度上整体潮汐扰动起控制作用的潮汐成分.结果显示，对周日和半日频率这两种潮汐而言，迁移性成分控制了它们的总体时空分布.在春分季节，迁移性周日潮的控制作用最显著，决定了赤道和两半球热带的活动中心；其中北半球副热带地区的季节变化形势与以往利用武汉（30°N，114°E）流星雷达风测量资料开展分析得到的结果是一致的；其他季节受非迁移性成分明显影响，例如，在本文关注的2005年中，夏至季节受（1，0）模、（1，-3）模和（1，-2）模的共同影响形成了从赤道向南延伸的活动中心，极值中心位于赤道附近，振幅达到了20 K以上，是全年的最大值.受迁移性成分控制，半日潮活动主要出现在两半球热带地区，北半球活动中心位于秋分季节（振幅达到13 K），南半球活动中心位于春分和夏至之间.其他季节受非迁移成分的影响，形成若干分布在两半球的活动中心.在本文关注的40°S～40°N范围内，与周日潮和半日潮相比，8小时潮汐具有显著较低的振幅；另外，虽然迁移性成分在一年中的大部分时间系统地分布在两半球热带地区，但是非迁移成分具有与迁移性成分相当或更大的振幅，在整体上控制了这种潮汐的时空分布.