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91.
H. J. Nijhuis 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1997,86(2):322-331
The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein
as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure,
reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of
the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty
introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the
essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic
input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited.
Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable,
consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify
the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables.
As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of
frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios.
Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996 相似文献
92.
The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River. 相似文献
93.
利用模糊综合评判法对昌宁盆地地下水水质进行了评价,并指出为确保评价的精度,在进行模糊评判中,建议四种A·R复合运算方法联合应用,综合分析 相似文献
94.
福建及台湾海峡地震预警工程架构探索 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
福建及台湾海峡是海陆板块碰撞到板内地震活动过渡带 ,东侧毗邻台湾板缘地震带 ,西侧为福建内陆板内地震活动区。这是得天独厚的观测研究大陆边缘地震构造带强震活动及板块动力学的良好地域。当前 ,我国进入全面建设小康社会历史时期 ,为防御地震造成社会灾害 ,实现以人为本 ,防患于未然 ,势必需要建构一个实用化的地震预警工程及其机制。本文即是在对福建及台湾海峡近 30多年以来观测研究的基础上 ,提出应用现代空间技术、数字地震、计算机网络等技术架构地震预警工程与机制的一种设想。 相似文献
96.
Introduction Through many year's practices by vast numbers of scientific and technological workers andefforts from all aspects, the dynamic testing method of high-low strain has formally entered intothe technical code of foundation pile test of construction at last (The Industry Standards of thePeople's Republic of China, 2003). The striking mode of the dynamic testing method of high strainis stipulated as hammer in the code, the striking of rocket can also be used. The latter is widely… 相似文献
97.
基于MICAPS系统的数字化天气图及常规气象资料检索分析系统 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
介绍了基于“9210工程”和MICAPS系统的资料自动存储、整理、检索和历史天气图分析业务系统——基于MICAPS系统的数字化天气图及常规气象资料检索分析系统,较全面地介绍了该系统高度自动化、设计友好的功能和在业务中的应用。 相似文献
98.
Grant H. Thomson 《The Photogrammetric Record》2004,19(107):237-249
The introduction of digital cameras for aerial survey photography and use of scanners with processed aerial film present a number of technical questions concerning the way photography is to be acquired in the future. Among the questions to be addressed are the comparative metric properties of images acquired by each system and the associated image quality characteristics. The new digital camera systems will require very careful appraisal, using well-established methods of assessing metric quality already available to survey organisations. The questions concerning image quality are more difficult to answer, as they require very specialised instrumentation if measurements are to be made directly in practice. Over the course of the past several decades a more analytical approach to assessing image quality has emerged, and one that may be used by individuals. The method is particularly effective where information on the micro-image characteristics of products is made available by the manufacturers concerned. An outline is given of some considerations that need to be taken into account when using an analytical approach, with references given for further reading. 相似文献
99.
100.