毛乌素沙地东南缘全新世气候不稳定性

毛乌素沙地处于中国季风区的西北边缘,对气候变化敏感,是古气候演化和古环境变迁研究的理想场所。全新世气温回暖期,气候整体稳定但存在暖湿冷干的次级波动,不同类型沉积相组成的地层序列记录了全新世千年、百年尺度的气候不稳定性。对毛乌素沙地不同沉积序列的研究表明:(1)毛乌素沙地东南缘的沙漠/黄土边界带DLT、NB剖面粒度及Rb/Sr比值可作为气候变化的代用指标。>63 μm砂含量增加,Rb/Sr比值降低,揭示东亚冬季风增强,风成砂堆积,风沙活动加剧,气候干冷;反之,东亚夏季风增强,降水增多,风化成壤程度加大,气候暖湿。(2)毛乌素沙地东南缘沙漠/黄土边界带及低洼沟谷区年代概率密度函数的分析显示,全新世早期~8\^5 ka BP风成砂堆积,风沙活动加剧,气候表现为干冷;全新世中期8\^5 ka~3\^0 ka BP地势较高处古土壤广泛发育,地势低洼处发育湖沼相/泥炭层,但在6.0 ka BP左右存在气候转冷过程;全新世晚期3\^0 ka BP以来气候波动频繁。(3)毛乌素沙地气候变化与北大西洋冰筏冷事件、董哥洞石笋、季风边缘区湖泊、东部沙地等记录具有可对比性和相对一致性,反映出全新世千年和百年尺度上的气候变化主要受全球变化的影响,这对预测和模拟未来气候变化具有借鉴意义。     

Analyzing land-use change in farming-pastoral transitional region using autologistic model and household survey approach

Land change science （LCS） strives to understand and model land-use change, which will further advance the understanding of multiple issues in the socio-ecological systems. Based on GIS/RS techniques, autologistic model, and household survey method, this study investigated major land use changes and their causes from 1978 to 2008 in Uxin Banner （county-level）, Inner Mongolia in China and then developed an understanding of the relationships between household livelihood and land-use pattern. Results showed that cultivated land increased from 1988 to 2000, and leveled offafter 2000. Built-up land increased stably for the period 1978 2008. The change of grassland and bare land differed among the three periods. From 1978 to 1988, grassland increased by 23.3%, and bare land decreased by 20.48%. From 1988 to 2000, bare land expanded by 1.7%, but grassland declined by 1.3%. From 2000 to 2008, an increase in grassland area by 1.8% was observed, but a decrease in bare land area by 9.0% was witnessed. The autologistic models performed better than logistic models as indicated by lower Akaike Information Criterion （AIC） values. Factors associated with human activities significantly correlated with the change of cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and built-up land. The produce prices and extensive cultivated land use are major issues in the farming area. This study suggests that completing land circulation systems and maintaining the stability of price are effective solutions. By contrast, reclamation and overgrazing are major concerns in the pastoral areas. Implementing environmental policies effectively, transferring population out of rural pastoral areas, and developing modem animal husbandry are effective ways to address these issues.     

云南1971—2006年暖冬的时空变化分析

暖冬的频繁发生已经对农业生产、人类健康和生态系统产生直接的影响。根据云南省1971～2006年冬季平均气温观测资料,采用概率气候事件划分方法确定单站暖冬阈值和暖冬强度等级标准,得到全省逐年暖冬指数,分析云南省“暖”冬的变化趋势和分布特征。结果表明：云南省冬季普遍增暖,1971～2006年共出现13个暖冬年,暖冬年在时间分布上很不均匀,在1997年以后呈现明显变暖趋势。     

2022年青海门源M_(S)6.9地震前地电阻率变化分析北大核心CSCD

分别运用原始曲线分析法和归一化速率方法分析门源地震震中300 km范围内3个地电阻率台站数据变化。从原始曲线来看,金银滩台EW道临震前2个月出现大幅突跳及保留年变形态的趋势下降(-3.3%);山丹台NS道趋势下降(-1.9%)、EW道趋势上升(3.1%);武威小西沟台NS道趋势下降(-3.3%)、EW道趋势上升(2.8%),震后EW道趋势转平。而3个地电阻率台站归一化速率曲线在门源地震前均出现超过阈值的现象,但各自归一化速率形态存在差异。整点值突跳变化和日均值、月均值曲线加速变化、转折变化,尤其是上升至高值阶段出现的转折变化均可作为异常形态进行分析,以上变化不明显时需结合归一化速率方法提取异常。     

中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险评估

综合考虑柑桔气候适宜性水平及其变率变化,构建柑桔的风险度模型,运用滑动建模技术对中国亚热带地区柑桔的气候风险性进行动态分析与评估。根据风险分布强度将中国亚热带地区柑桔温度、降水、日照和气候风险大致分为三类型:低风险型、中风险型和高风险型。温度风险度大致呈纬度地带性分布,除西部高山区外,由低纬向高纬风险度依次增高;降水风险度呈现亚热带中部低,北部和西部高;与降水风险度相反,日照风险度在亚热带中部高,北部和西部低;气候风险度受温度变化的主导,也大致呈现纬度地带性,呈现高纬和西部高海拔区高,低纬和东部沿海区低。柑桔气候风险在时间和空间变化上都存在着差异,近46年来,中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势,尤其以20世纪80年代初以来增加的最快;由于全球气候变暖的影响,亚热带东部和南部风险较低的区域分布有逐渐减少的趋势,而北部和西部风险高的区域分布有进一步增大并向东部和南部扩展的可能。从中国亚热带地区柑桔减产率大于10%、20%、30%的气候风险度分布区域变动过程来看,柑桔各减产率的气候风险度分布具有很明显的区域性和连续性,大体上由东南向西北呈增高趋势。     

1990-2019年贡嘎山地区典型冰川表碛覆盖变化及其空间差异

表碛覆盖型冰川是中国西部较为常见的冰川类型。表碛层存在于大气—冰川冰界面,强烈影响大气圈与冰冻圈之间的热交换。表碛厚度的空间异质性可极大地改变冰川的消融率和物质平衡过程,进而影响冰川径流过程和下游水资源。基于Landsat TM/TIRS数据,运用能量平衡方程反演了贡嘎山地区冰川表碛厚度,研究了贡嘎山地区冰川在1990—2019年间表碛覆盖范围及厚度变化情况,同时对比了东西坡差异。结果表明：① 贡嘎山地区冰川表碛扩张总面积达43.824 km²。其中,海螺沟冰川扩张2.606 km²、磨子沟冰川1.959 km²、燕子沟冰川1.243 km²、大贡巴冰川0.896 km²、小贡巴冰川0.509 km²、南门关沟冰川2.264 km²,年均扩张率分别为3.2%、11.1%、1.5%、0.9%、1.0%和6.5%;② 海螺沟冰川、磨子沟冰川、燕子沟冰川、大贡巴冰川、小贡巴冰川、南门关沟冰川表碛平均增厚分别为5.2 cm、3.1 cm、3.7 cm、6.8 cm、7.3 cm和13.1 cm;③ 西坡冰川表碛覆盖度高,表碛覆盖年均扩张率低,冰川末端退缩量小;东坡冰川表碛覆盖年均扩张率高,但表碛覆盖度总体低于西坡,冰川末端退缩量大。     

Geomorphic process from topographic form: automating the interpretation of repeat survey data in river valleys

The ability to quantify the processes driving geomorphic change in river valley margins is vital to geomorphologists seeking to understand the relative role of transport mechanisms (e.g. fluvial, aeolian, and hillslope processes) in landscape dynamics. High‐resolution, repeat topographic data are becoming readily available to geomorphologists. By contrasting digital elevation models derived from repeat surveys, the transport processes driving topographic changes can be inferred, a method termed ‘mechanistic segregation.’ Unfortunately, mechanistic segregation largely relies on subjective and time consuming manual classification, which has implications both for its reproducibility and the practical scale of its application. Here we present a novel computational workflow for the mechanistic segregation of geomorphic transport processes in geospatial datasets. We apply the workflow to seven sites along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon, where geomorphic transport is driven by a diverse suite of mechanisms. The workflow performs well when compared to field observations, with an overall predictive accuracy of 84% across 113 validation points. The approach most accurately predicts changes due to fluvial processes (100% accuracy) and aeolian processes (96%), with reduced accuracy in predictions of alluvial and colluvial processes (64% and 73%, respectively). Our workflow is designed to be applicable to a diversity of river systems and will likely provide a rapid and objective understanding of the processes driving geomorphic change at the reach and network scales. We anticipate that such an understanding will allow insight into the response of geomorphic transport processes to external forcings, such as shifts in climate, land use, or river regulation, with implications for process‐based river management and restoration. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Situated adaptation: Tackling the production of vulnerability through transformative action in Sri Lanka’s Dry Zone

Drawing attention to the production of vulnerability across scales in Sri Lanka, we contribute to knowledge of why certain people and social groups are vulnerable. We build our contribution on the theoretical application of ‘situated adaptation’. A situated analytical approach identifies, assesses, and responds to the everyday realities and politics of those living in climate changed environments. It highlights uneven geographies of vulnerability and opportunity, while identifying new imaginations and possibilities for transformative action that counter the production of vulnerability. We illustrate the utility of ‘situated adaptation’ by filling an empirical gap relating to experiences of political-economic and environmental change in Sri Lanka’s Dry Zone. We detail situated experiences by drawing on field research in the Anuradhapura District, revealing how the lives and livelihoods of farmer participants are structured by a productivity-vulnerability paradox. We demonstrate how a prevalent adaptation-development paradigm (whereby development and adaptation programs co-exist in theory and practice) is unable to address the structural drivers of vulnerability in Sri Lanka’s Dry Zone. A situated adaptation approach both explains why this is the case and highlights opportunities for alternative transformative actions, potentially identifying a more democratic and egalitarian politics of co-determining socionatural change.     

粤港澳大湾区1975—2018年海岸线时空演变与影响因素分析

提要:海岸带是陆地向海洋延伸的过渡地带,是人口最为密集、人类活动最频繁的区域,全球超过50％的人口和60％的GDP总量集聚在离海岸线不足100 km的区域.海岸线对海平面上升、海岸侵蚀、港湾淤积、湿地生态资源、近海海域环境等具有重要的指示作用.本研究利用遥感影像获取了粤港澳大湾区(以下简称大湾区)1975—2018年间...     

The ebb and flow of capital in Indonesian coastal production systems

The global fisheries sector has undergone both rapid industrialization and considerable resource depletion. Unlike fisheries in the Northern Hemisphere, the Indonesian (and indeed Southeast Asian) sector is still largely dominated by small-scale producers, who are partially embedded within a subsistence economy. Changes in the nature of production and livelihoods in the fisheries sector appear similar to those in land-based agriculture but have received far less attention in the literature and demand further analysis given the distinct characteristics of the natural resource base. Using national datasets complemented by insights from a two-month period of fieldwork in South Sulawesi, this paper presents the process of capital intensification underpinning national fisheries growth and how it is transforming small-scale production systems. Despite increasing market integration, we found that smallholders have persisted across coastal production systems to an even stronger degree than land-based agriculture. We suggest some reasons why this is so. However, we also observed evidence of internal class differentiation within coastal communities. Such differentiation, combined with resource degradation and depletion, exposes the poorest in the community to enhanced livelihood vulnerability.