EFFECTS OF THREE KINDS OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES ON TYPHOON INTENSITY*

This paper designs three quasi-geostrophic barotropic models with a radial/horizontal grid length being 2 kin,one in the polar coordinates,one on a stationary typhoon circulation condition and another on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition in the Cartesian coordinates,to investigate the effects of azimuthal and radial linear advections,and nonlinear advection on the inward propagation of mesoscale vorticity and the changes of typhoon intensity.Results show that the azimuthal linear advection may result in the formation of spiral vorticity bands;the radial linear advection in a certain parameter set is able to transfer vorticity inwards,leading to a slight enhancement of typhoon;the nonlinear advection of perturbation vorticity on a stationary typhoon circulation condition may transfer more vorticities inwards,thus resulting in a distinct enhancement of typhoon;and the nonlinear advection on a non-stationary typhoon circulation condition possesses duality,i.e.on the one hand,the advection increases the vorticity of inward propagation,thus favorable to the intensification of typhoon,and on the other hand,in the inward propagation process of vorticity the originally concentric and axisymmetric structure of typhoon basic flow is damaged,and a complex flow pattern forms,which in turn tends to weaken the circulation of typhoon.At last the paper discusses the possible applications of those results in typhoon intensity prediction.     

云南2001年施甸地震的剪切波分裂参数变化特征

云南地区2001年4月10日至6月8日相继发生了4月10日MＳ5.2、4月12日MＳ5.9和6月8日MＳ5.3的施甸地震. 本文利用云南遥测数字地震台网的保山地震台记录的地震波形资料，使用SAM分析方法（即剪切波分裂系统分析方法），采用地震应力预测的分析手段，对这个强震系列进行剪切波分裂参数变化特征的研究. 初步结果表明，随着地震活动的增强，剪切波分裂时间延迟值t基本呈现增加的特征，但在强震即将发生之前的短时间内，发生t减小的现象，符合我们早先研究发现的震前应力释放现象. 研究认为，在地震活动强烈的构造地区和有强震发生危险的经济发达地区或重要城市，开展强烈地震的应力预测应用实践，可以减轻地震的危害程度.      

华北地区700年来地壳应力场演化与地震的关系研究

目前地震断层相互作用问题已引起地震学家的广泛关注。许多研究表明一条断层的破裂可以影响附近其他断层趋于破裂的进程，两条断层间的确切作用取决于它们的相对位置、破裂机制、错动量和介质力学性质。本研究给出了华北地区700年来由于长期构造加载及地震断层错动导致的累积库仑破裂应力变化(ACCFS)的演化过程。长期构造加载场由GPS观测得到的地壳平均应变率场给出。关于历史地震断层破裂参数的估算，根据的是华北地区有现代仪器记录的大震资料归算地震烈度与断层破裂长度、震级和地震矩的统计关系；根据地质调查得到的地震断层走向、倾角以及本地区的构造应力场方向估计滑动角。考虑粘弹性成层介质地壳模型，计算长期构造加载和地震形变(同震及震后介质粘弹性驰豫变形)造成的累积应力场变化。将累积应力场变化投影到后续地震断层面和滑动方向上得到△CCFS，并研究其对后续地震发生的触发作用。对1303年以来华北地区发生的49个M≥6．5地震研究结果表明：ACCFS对48个后续地震中的38个有触发作用，触发率达到79．2％。应用当今累积应力场变化于华北地区1303年-2003年发生的M≥5地震，我们发现触发率达到75．5％，于1976年以来发生的M≥5地震触发率达82．1％。未被触发的地震中有些是发生在断层破裂区附近的余震，很可能是由于历史地震破裂参量估计的误差落入影区中，若排除这些影响，触发率会更高。研究表明ACCFS与发生的后续地震有很好的相关性。当前ACCFS显著上升的地区包括渤海及其邻域地区、西秦岭北缘断裂带、张家口-渤海地震带西端和太原盆地，其地震危险性应引起重视。     

全球、中国大陆和华北地区地震活动韵律性时变特征及趋势分析

基于Morlet小波变换，提出一种新的定量划分地震活跃期或平静期的分析方法，形成了根据复小波变换得到不同周期累加能谱极大值点变化、实小波变换振动周期谱时频分布以及指定周期的小波振动周期随时间变化的极值分布规律来研究地震活动韵律性及其时变特征的物理思路。通过对全球、中国大陆和华北地区浅源地震年释放能量的时间序列分析。对研究区强震活动的韵律性及其时变特征有了新的认识。根据目前强震活动具有的韵律性，结合历史地震活动情况，对未来研究区地震趋势进行了初步分析。     

地质雷达在隧道检测中的应用

隧道施工完成后用常规方法很难对衬砌质量做出系统评价，地质雷达利用超高频脉冲电磁波探测目标介质的介电常数，很容易掌握砼衬砌结构的厚度、衬砌周围回填及空隙情况，围岩断层裂隙构造情况等，为工程技术评价提供依据。文章以实例，介绍了利用地质雷达对隧道进行检测所使用的仪器、工作参数及地质雷达资料处理解释步骤，并通过对几幅典型雷达图像进行分析介绍了不同异常结构在雷达剖面上的反映。     

Vicissitude of Sogo Nur and environmental-climatic change during last 1500 years

Lakes in arid zone are sensitive to climatic changes. The lacustrine sediment sequence in Sogo Nur has well and truly recorded climatic events such as the Sui-Tang Dynasty Warm Period, the Song-Liao Dynasty Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the 20th Century Warm Period. Commonly, the climate in warm Periods was relatively humid,accordingly the lake area extended and water level rose, and vice versa. Apart from climatic change, human activity is also an important factor of influencing lake vicissitude, and they played the dominant role alternatively during different periods; the factor of climatic change predominated in historical period, while since the beginning of the 20th century the utilization of water resources by human has became decisive.     

Dynamik der Schilfröhrichte am Bodensee unter dem Einfluss von Wasserstandsvariationen

On the basis of different sets of aerial photos the dynamics of the reed bed areas of Lake Constance were investigated in relation to the dynamics of the water levels. The objectives of the study were to quantify the changes of reed areas due to different flood events in the last decades and their recovery in the time periods between these events. The results should given information of the relevance of water level variations on reed bed dynamics and the regeneration times of reed beds after extreme disturbance events.Following the extreme flood at Lake Constance in 1999 the reed belts of Lake Constance lost approximately 30 ha (24%) of the lakeside reed beds. The loss is comparable to the situation in the late 1960s, when approximately 40 ha died back due to the extreme flood in 1965 and the high spring water levels in the subsequent years. In the time period between the extreme floods of 1965 and 1999, the reed areas expanded to nearly 85% of the area before 1965. The expansion rates increased with increasing distance to the flood event of 1965. Especially in periods with series of years of low spring water level the expansion rates were high.The damage degrees of the reed areas in the years 2000 and 2002 showed a clear relation to the elevation (i.e. average water level) of the stands. The damage degree increased with decreasing elevation. Furthermore the regeneration process of severely damaged stands was related to the elevation level of the stands. Whereas stands at high elevation regenerate fast, those at low elevation died off completely in the years after the extreme flood. This supports the hypothesis that the water level flutuations play a major role in the reed dynamics of Lake Constance.As a consequence of the climate change an increase in the frequency of high spring water levels is expected. Thus, it seems unlikely that reed stands will ever expand again to the same area as before 1965.     

A comparative study on the illite crystallinity and the clay mineral reflectance spectral index for subdividing the very low-grade metamorphic belt along the Lizhou-Hekou geological section in the Youjiang sedimentary basin, Guangxi, China

To examine the application potential of hyperspectral remote sensing techniques in classifying very low-grade metamorphic belts, the composition of clay minerals and the cyrstallinity of illite from mudstones were measured using XRD and VIS-SWIR (400-2500 nm) reflectance spectroscopy. Based on the illite cyrstallinity, Kubler Index (KI), the Early Triassic LuoLou Group and the Middle Triassic lower Baifeng Formation were classified as the lower Epizone with KI△2θ° ranging from 0.22 to 0.25, the upper Baifeng Formation as upper anchizone with KI△2θ°ranging from 0.26 to 0.33, and the Hekou Formation as lower anchizone with KI△2θ° ranging from 0.38 to 0.40. According to a KI△2θ° value of 0.43, it is possible that there may exist a local diagenetic zone in the upper strata. The illite cyrstallinity Kubler index and the metamorphic grade increase from the bottom to the top of the stratigraphic sequence. The metamorphic grade boundaries nearly match the stratigraphic boundaries, indicating a burial metamorphism nature for the stratigraphic sequence. From the bottom to the top of the sequence, the spectral absorption band center of clay minerals from fresh rocks is around 2200 nm. The absorption band centers change towards shorter wavelengths: the Luolou Group being at 2220 nm, the Baifeng Formation at 2217-2213 nm, the lower member of the Hekou Formation at 2214-2206 nm, and the upper member of the Hekou Formation at 2205-2197 nm. The spectral absorption band center of illite shows the same change pattern. These results indicate that very low-grade metamorphic belts can be subdivided using spectral indices of clay minerals, which are measured by using field portable spectroradiometers. However, it may not work well with satellite and airborne sensors.     

三江源地区气候变化及其对生态环境的影响

利用EOF等方法通过计算 1 96 2～ 2 0 0 1年 4 0年来三江源地区 1 6个气象台站气温、降水、蒸发资料 ,分析了三江源地区近 4 0年来气候变化的异常特征及其对生态环境的影响 ,结果表明 :三江源地区气候变化表现为气温升高、降水减少和蒸发增大的干旱化气候变化趋势 ,同时 ,在气候干旱化和人为活动的影响下出现了草场退化、湖泊萎缩、河流流量减少、土壤沙化和水土流失等生态环境荒漠化问题。     

Assessing land use/cover changes: a nationwide multidate spatial database for Mexico

A nationwide multidate GIS database was generated in order to carry out the quantification and spatial characterization of land use/cover changes (LUCC) in Mexico. Existing cartography on land use/cover at a 1:250,000 scale was revised to select compatible inputs regarding the scale, the classification scheme and the mapping method. Digital maps from three different dates (the late 1970s, 1993 and 2000) were revised, evaluated, corrected and integrated into a GIS database. In order to improve the reliability of the database, an attempt was made to assess the accuracy of the digitalisation procedure and to detect and correct unlikely changes due to thematic errors in the maps. Digital maps were overlaid in order to generate LUCC maps, transition matrices and to calculate rates of conversion. Based upon this database, rates of deforestation between 1976 and 2000 were evaluated as 0.25 and 0.76% per year for temperate and tropical forests, respectively.