Simulating urban land use change by integrating a convolutional neural network with vector-based cellular automata

ABSTRACT

Vector-based cellular automata (VCA) models have been applied in land use change simulations at fine scales. However, the neighborhood effects of the driving factors are rarely considered in the exploration of the transition suitability of cells, leading to lower simulation accuracy. This study proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN)-VCA model that adopts the CNN to extract the high-level features of the driving factors within a neighborhood of an irregularly shaped cell and discover the relationships between multiple land use changes and driving factors at the neighborhood level. The proposed model was applied to simulate urban land use changes in Shenzhen, China. Compared with several VCA models using other machine learning methods, the proposed CNN-VCA model obtained the highest simulation accuracy (figure-of-merit = 0.361). The results indicated that the CNN-VCA model can effectively uncover the neighborhood effects of multiple driving factors on the developmental potential of land parcels and obtain more details on the morphological characteristics of land parcels. Moreover, the land use patterns of 2020 and 2025 under an ecological control strategy were simulated to provide decision support for urban planning.     

Rainfall partitioning and its effects on regional water balances: Evidence from the conversion of traditional cropland to apple orchards in a semi-humid region

Rainfall partitioning by vegetation cover plays an important role in local and regional water balances. Large areas of traditional cropland have been converted to apple orchards on the Loess Plateau, China, so the effect of the conversion of traditional cropland to these orchards on rainfall partitioning cannot be ignored. In this study, we measured precipitation, throughfall (TF), and stemflow (SF) and calculated canopy interception (I) and canopy storage capacity (S) in two neighbouring apple orchards (8 and 18 years old in 2013) on the plateau during the four growing seasons of 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. Besides, we also summarized the percentage of rainfall partitioning of various crops and tree species and assessed the effect of land use change on regional water balances. The results showed that the percentage of rainfall partitioning and S differed between the two orchards. Mean annual I, TF, and SF for the young and mature orchards during the 4 years accounted for 7.9, 89.8, and 2.6% and for 10.3, 87.5, and 2.3%, respectively, of the rainfall partitioning. The percentage accounted for by mean annual I and TF differed significantly between the two orchards, but the percentage of mean annual SF did not differ significantly between the two orchards. Mean annual S for 2013–2016 was significantly higher for the mature than the young orchard. Although the conversion of traditional cropland to apple orchards led to a more serious soil desiccation in this region, the I loss percentage was higher in maize (12.5%) than the apple orchards. Therefore, we inferred that the effect of the conversion of traditional cropland to apple orchards on regional water balances was likely not caused by differences in rainfall partitioning. Differences in tree morphology due to tree age accounted for the differences in rainfall partitioning and S between the two orchards. Thus, tree age should be taken into account when assessing the effect of apple orchards on rainfall partitioning in this or similar regions.     

中密风积沙地层金属装配式基础抗拔模型试验与承载力改进计算方法

金属装配式基础因施工方便与综合造价低而被越来越多地应用于风积沙地区输电线路基础工程。针对中密风积沙开展全模和半模抗拔模型试验,研究了不同深宽比下基础的上拔荷载-位移特性和抗拔破坏模式。结果表明,抗拔荷载-位移关系曲线随着基础深宽比λ变化而改变。当λ=1.0时,曲线呈缓变型;当λ=2.0～5.0时,曲线呈软化型。随着λ的增大,抗拔拔承载力随之增大。在加载过程中,地表以基础顶部为中心逐渐形成近似为圆形的隆起区域,隆起程度随着上拔位移增大而不断增加,最终形成整体破坏,此时滑动面贯穿地表;通过半模试验观测的上拔土体滑动面子午线可用直线方程近似描述,且抗拔角随着λ的增大而减小。根据上述试验结果,基于Veesaert滑动面摩擦强度理论和极限平衡原理,提出了金属装配式基础的抗拔承载力改进计算方法,计算结果相较于土重法和剪切法更接近试验值,且离散程度更小。     

土壤热参数及其影响因素测试分析

热性质是岩土体基本的物理性质之一,用以评价热量在其中的保持、传导和分布状况,以导热系数、比热容和热扩散系数最为常见,这些参数也是地热能管理与开发、工程冷冻开挖、寒区工程设计与施工的重要参数。已有研究表明,土壤热参数与土质、来源、含水率、密度等因素有关。通过广东湛江某工地粉质黏土和黏土的热参数测试结果分析发现：随含水率的增大,粉质黏土导热系数和热扩散系数的变化趋势是先增加至最大值,然后减小,而比热容基本呈线性增大。干密度对粉质黏土导热系数的影响与含水率大小有关,当含水率不超过20.0%时,其随干密度的增加而增大,而当含水率超过27.5%后,其随干密度的增加有减小趋势;当含水率在24.5%（液限）左右时,基本没有规律可循。干密度对粉质黏土热扩散系数影响规律不明显。黏土的导热系数和比热容都随含水率和干密度的增加而增大;热扩散系数随含水率的升高整体表现为非线性增加至稳定,在低含水率下干密度的影响不明显,在较高含水率下随干密度的增加热扩散系数先增大后减小。较大颗粒的存在导致粉质黏土的导热性较黏土复杂。     

琼东南盆地深水区源—储共控的天然气成藏模式

琼东南盆地深水区天然气成藏过程复杂。通过开展区域构造—沉积演化、烃源岩—储层识别评价及油气运聚等多方法的综合性研究,明确了中央拗陷天然气来源、优势成藏组合及区带。研究表明,崖城组三角洲的发育规模及古地貌控制了煤系和陆源海相烃源岩的分布,形成了生气为主、油气兼生的渐新统陆源海相烃源岩;受早渐新世三角州分布、中中新世以来沉积充填速率及水深变化的控制,预测中央坳陷南斜坡及松南低凸起区优质烃源岩规模更大,且储层在相同的海拔深度条件下,相比北部陡坡带势能较低,油气输导能力更佳。深水区崖城组优质海相烃源岩、大型三角州砂岩输导体及低流体势区的耦合分布控制了天然气初次运移的优势方向,中央坳陷南部斜坡及低凸起是下一步大中型气田的突破方向。     

Grading Evaluation and Ranking of CO2 Sequestration Capacity in Place(CSCIP) in China's Major Oil Basins: Theoretical,Effective, Practical and CCUS-EOR

Because it is necessary to focus on differences in regional oil reservoirs and determine the priority of the CCUSEOR(Carbon capture, utilization, and storage-enhanced oil recovery) deployment under China’s net-zero CO₂ emission target, systematic and regional evaluations of CO₂ sequestration capacity in major oil basins are needed considering the geofluid properties―carbon sequestration capacity in place(CSCIP)―where the ’in place’ indicates actual geological formation cond...     

Social cohesion and passive adaptation in relation to climate change and disease

Climate change affects biophysical processes related to the transmission of many infectious diseases, with potentially adverse consequences for the health of communities. While our knowledge of biophysical associations between meteorological factors and disease is steadily improving, our understanding of the social processes that shape adaptation to environmental perturbations lags behind. Using computational modeling methods, we explore the ways in which social cohesion can affect adaptation of disease prevention strategies when communities are exposed to different environmental scenarios that influence transmission pathways for diseases such as diarrhea. We developed an agent-based model in which household agents can choose between two behavioral strategies that offer different levels of protection against environmentally mediated disease transmission. One behavioral strategy is initially set as more protective, leading households to adopt it widely, but its efficacy is sensitive to variable weather conditions and stressors such as floods or droughts that modify the disease transmission system. The efficacy of the second strategy is initially moderate relative to the first and is insensitive to environmental changes. We examined how social cohesion (defined as average number of household social network connections) influences health outcomes when households attempt to identify an optimal strategy by copying the behaviors of socially connected neighbors who seem to have adapted successfully in the past. Our simulation experiments suggest that high-cohesion communities are able to rapidly disseminate the initially optimal behavioral strategy compared to low-cohesion communities. This rapid and pervasive change, however, decreases behavioral diversity; i.e., once a high cohesion community settles on a strategy, most or all households adopt that behavior. Following environmental changes that reduce the efficacy of the initially optimal strategy, rendering it suboptimal relative to the alternative strategy, high-cohesion communities can fail to adapt. As a result, despite faring better early in the course of computational experiments, high-cohesion communities may ultimately experience worse outcomes. In the face of uncertainty in predicting future environmental stressors due to climate change, strategies to improve effective adaptation to optimal disease prevention strategies should balance between intervention efforts that promote protective behaviors based on current scientific understanding and the need to guard against the crystallization of inflexible norms. Developing generalizable models allows us to integrate a wide range of theories and multiple datasets pertaining to the relationship between social mechanisms and adaptation, which can provide further understanding of future climate change impacts. Models such as the one we present can generate hypotheses about the mechanisms that underlie the dynamics of adaptation events and suggest specific points of measurement to assess the impact of these mechanisms. They can be incorporated as modules within predictive simulations for specific socio-ecological contexts.     

Quantifying urban water supply security under global change

Urban water supply security is commonly measured in terms of per capita water availability at the city level. However, the actual services that citizens receive are influenced by several components, including (1) a city's access to water, (2) infrastructure for its treatment, storage and distribution, (3) financial capital for building and maintaining infrastructure, and (4) management efficacy for regulating and operating the water system. These four types of "capital" are required for the provision of public water supply services. A fifth capital “community adaptation” is needed when public services are insufficient. Here, we develop and test an integrated framework for the quantification of urban water supply security based on these five capitals. “Security” involves three dimensions: 1) the level of system function (i.e., supply services); 2) risks to these services; and 3) robustness of system functioning. We apply this Capital Portfolio Approach (CPA) to seven urban case studies selected from a wide range of hydro-climatic and socio-economic regions on four continents. Detailed data on urban water infrastructure and services were collected in two cities, and key stakeholder interviews and household surveys were conducted in one city. Additional cities were assessed based on publicly available utility and globally available datasets. We find that in cities with high levels of public services, adaptive capacity remains inactive, while cities with high levels of water insecurity rely on community adaptation for self-provision of services. Inequality in the capacity to adapt leads to variable levels of urban water security and the vulnerability of the urban poor. Results demonstrate the applicability of the presented framework for the assessment of individual urban water systems, as well as for cross-city comparison of any type of cities. We discuss implications for policy and decision-making.     

松辽盆地长岭断陷沙河子组页岩有机显微组分孔隙演化规律研究

有机质孔隙是页岩储集空间的重要组成部分,具有强烈的非均质性,阻碍对页岩储层质量的正确认识和评价,其本质是受有机显微组分类型及其在生烃过程中孔隙演化的影响。本文采用场发射扫描电镜和荧光显微镜定位观察手段实现特定显微组分孔隙发育特征的表征,结合Image J图像处理技术,对不同演化阶段的显微组分进行定量化统计,总结不同有机显微组分的孔隙演化规律。研究结果表明:固体沥青孔隙度随着成熟度的升高呈现先增加后减小的趋势,在固体沥青反射率SBR_O介于1.6%～2.0%时,固体沥青孔隙最为发育,而以SBR_O=2.0%为界,固体沥青孔隙度开始减小。镜质体和惰质体的孔隙发育规律相似,随着成熟度增加,总体表现出先减小而后微弱增加的趋势。在生油窗阶段,镜质体和惰质体孔隙度最小,无机矿物和固体沥青的充填使胞腔孔隙损失达90%以上,而进入高成熟阶段,固体沥青孔隙的发育使原始胞腔孔隙得到一定程度的恢复,成为镜质体和惰质体残余孔隙的主要贡献者,贡献率达56.73%和100%,可见固体沥青孔隙对页岩储层储集空间的重要性。综合沉积成岩作用和生烃作用,页岩储层在未成熟阶段和高成熟阶段晚期孔隙最为发育,前者有机质以原始胞腔孔隙为主,后者以固体量孔隙为主。明确有机显微组分孔隙演化规律为页岩有利储层预测和页岩气生产开发储层改造提供参考。     

Effects of composition and pore structure on the reservoir gas capacity of Carboniferous shale from Qaidam Basin,China

Shale adsorption and breakthrough pressure are important indicators of shale gas development and key factors in evaluating the reservoir capacities of shales. In this study, geochemical tests, pore-structure tests, methane adsorption tests, and breakthrough-pressure tests were conducted on shales from the Carboniferous Hurleg Formation in eastern Qaidam Basin. The effects of the shale compositions and pore structures on the adsorption and breakthrough pressures were studied, and the reservoir capacities of the shales were evaluated by analyzing the shale adsorptions and sealing effects. The results indicate that the organic carbon content was only one of factors in affecting the adsorption capacity of the shale samples while the effect of the clay minerals was limited. Based on the positive correlation between the adsorption capacity and specific surface area of the shale, the specific surface area of the micropores can be used as an indicator to determine the adsorption capacity of shale. The micro-fracturing of brittle minerals, such as quartz, create a primary path for shale gas breakthrough, whereas the expansion of clay minerals with water greatly increases the breakthrough pressure in the shale samples. Methane adsorption tests showed that maximum methane adsorption for shale samples Z045 and S039 WAS 0.107 and 0.09655 mmol/g, respectively. The breakthrough pressure was 39.36 MPa for sample S039, maintained for 13 days throughout the experiment; however, no breakthrough was observed in sample Z045 when subjected to an injected pressure of 40 MPa for 26 days. This indicates that sample Z045, corresponding to a depth of 846.24 m, exhibited higher adsorption capacity and a better reservoir-sealing effect than sample S039 (498.4 m depth). This study provides useful information for future studies of Qaidam Basin shale gas exploration and development and for evaluation of shale quality.