基于GIS的细胞自动机模型与人地关系的复杂性探讨

探讨人地非线性关系可以揭示地理系统空间复杂性的许多简单本质 ,具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。以地理信息系统 (GIS)为技术支持 ,建立以细胞自动机 (CA)为核心的综合集成模型 ,将成为人地关系复杂性研究的主要方向。建议在CA GIS集成技术的基础上 ,一方面引入人工神经网络、进化算法、多重智能体系 (MAS)以及后现代数学分析方法 ,另一方面面向具体研究对象开发包括自然、人文地理要素在内的集成区域动力学模型 ,据此发展智能化综合集成模型体系 ,形成人地关系复杂性的模拟研究实验室。本文提出了开发智能化CA GIS模拟方法的初步设想。     

宁夏农地资源劳动力承载力时空分析

在建设社会主义新农村的新形势下,农业劳动力的就业和剩余劳动力的转移问题已成为中国当前面临的一个重大社会问题。运用农地资源劳动力承载力测算的理论方法,对宁夏1995-2004年间以及2004年宁夏各市县的农地资源劳动力承载力进行时空分析比较。结果表明:10年来,宁夏农地资源劳动力承载力一直处于轻度超载状态,其中北部引黄灌区各市县属承载力富余区;而南部山区各市县则属重超载区,存在着较大数量的农业剩余劳动力。因此,宁夏要建设和谐的人地关系,必须在继续加强生态环境保护、提高农地资源综合生产能力的同时,大力推进超载区农业剩余劳动力的产业转移和空间转移。     

英东油田长井段薄互层油藏储层产能分类及预测研究

针对柴达木盆地英东油田长井段油层层间非均质性强、产能差异大、产液能力不确定给低油价下效益开发带来的诸多问题,笔者尝试利用渗流系数、存储系数与含油饱和度作为fisher判别函数参数对研究区不同储层产能进行了定量评价研究。通过实际生产数据与理论函数对比,理论模型整体判别符合率达到80%以上,基本满足了油藏开发需要,为后续油藏的单层砂体投产治理、产能部署及储层预测动用提供了决策依据。     

A study on marine region carrying capacity and eco-compensation

With the using up of land resources, people are beginning to pay attention to the exploitation of the ocean and the use of marine resources is becoming more and more intense. Whether and how the ocean can be sustainably exploited as it is being exploited is an academic hot topic. This question is addressed in this paper based on the theories of carrying capacity of a marine region and marine eco-compensation, and the amount of the loss is calculated by the method of Time Value of Capital. This thesis covers the study of eco-compensation between two specific subjects with clear compensation objects, and as a defined approach and standard, the proposed method has good operability and positive practical significance in the good use of the ocean.     

淄博市大武水源地地下水流场数值模型研究

以Visual一Modflow为工具，建立了淄博市大武水源地地下水流场三维模型。模型综合考虑了水源地复杂的水文地质条件，计算结果与观测资料拟合检验效果良好。在模型基础上对未来水位变化趋势进行了预报，并提出了水源地的合理开采量。     

Overflow probability of the Salt Lake in Hoh Xil Region

After the bursting of Huiten Nor in Hoh Xil Region in September, 2011, the topic on whether the water overflowed from the Salt Lake would enter into the Chumaer River and become the northernmost source of the Yangtze River has aroused wide concern from public and academic field. Based on Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI remote sensing images during 2010–2015, SRTM 1 arc-second data, Google Earth elevation data and the observation data from the Wudaoliang meteorological station, the study initially analyzed the variations of the Salt Lake and its overflowing condition and probability. The results showed that the area of the Salt Lake expanded sharply from October 2011 to April 2013, and then it stepped into a stable expansion period. On October 27, 2015, the area of the Salt Lake had arrived at 151.38 km², which was about 3.35 times the area of the lake on March 3, 2010. The Salt Lake will overflow when its area reaches the range from 218.90 km² to 220.63 km². Due to the differences between SRTM DEM and Google Earth elevation data, the water level of the Salt Lake simulated would be 12 m or 9.6 m higher than the current level when the lake overflowed, and its reservoir capacity would increase by 23.71 km³ or 17.27 km³, respectively. Meanwhile, the overflowed water of the Salt Lake would run into the Qingshui River basin from its eastern part. Although the Salt Lake does not overflow in the coming decade, with watershed expansion of the Salt Lake and the projected precipitation increase in Hoh Xil region, the probability of water overflow from the Salt Lake and becoming a tributary of the Yangtze River will exist in the long term.     

A displacement‐based seismic design procedure for RC buildings and comparison with EC8

A procedure for displacement‐based seismic design (DBD) of reinforced concrete buildings is described and applied to a 4‐storey test structure. The essential elements of the design procedure are: (a) proportioning of members for gravity loads; (b) estimation of peak inelastic member deformation demands in the so‐designed structure due to the design (‘life‐safety’) earthquake; (c) revision of reinforcement and final detailing of members to meet these inelastic deformation demands; (d) capacity design of members and joints in shear. Additional but non‐essential steps between (a) and (b) are: (i) proportioning of members for the ULS against lateral loads, such as wind or a serviceability (‘immediate occupancy’) earthquake; and (ii) capacity design of columns in flexure at joints. Inelastic deformation demands in step (b) are estimated from an elastic analysis using secant‐to‐yield member stiffnesses. Empirical expressions for the deformation capacity of RC elements are used for the final proportioning of elements to meet the inelastic deformation demands. The procedure is applied to one side of a 4‐storey test structure that includes a coupled wall and a two‐bay frame. The other side is designed and detailed according to Eurocode 8. Major differences result in the reinforcement of the two sides, with significant savings on the DBD‐side. Pre‐test calculations show no major difference in the seismic performance of the two sides of the test structure. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于区域尺度的城市承载力评价研究——以上海市为例

在城市化带来交通拥堵、生态失衡及环境污染等诸多问题的背景下,开展城市承载力研究,对于保证城市的全面、协调、可持续发展具有重要意义.本文将传统的承载力评价研究方法与互联网大数据下的兴趣点和空间路网数据相结合,建立了上海市承载力评价指标体系.运用信息论中的熵方法,对上海市各区域的承载力进行了评价和分析.结果表明,上海市各地...     

西部地区市场潜力分析

应用市场潜力模型,计算了各地的市场潜力指数,分析西部地区市场潜力的分布及其影响因素。研究结果发现,西部地区市场潜力在全国处于较低的位置,在西部地区内部存在区域差异。市场潜力指数由东向西逐级递减,接近中部地区的地市市场潜力指数相对较高,远离沿海和中部地区的内陆区域市场潜力非常之低。市场潜力的贡献份额存在南北差异。西南地区除广西之外,四川、重庆、贵州、云南等省市省内市场需求的贡献份额较高,同时区内非本省市场的贡献份额也较高,反映出省市之间的市场空间相互作用比较密切的特点。西北地区靠近中部地区、交通比较方便的陕西、宁夏和陇东地区市场潜力受区外市场的影响较大,甘肃大部地区和新疆主要依赖省内市场,青海主要依赖区内非本省市场。市场潜力分布的省域圈层特点明显。从中心区域向外围区域,市场潜力对省内市场需求的依赖趋于加深,离经济中心距离较远的地市省内市场需求的贡献份额较高,区内非本省市场和区外市场的贡献份额省内经济中心一般高于边缘地区。     

A CA-based land system change model: LANDSCAPE

Cellular automata (CA) models are widely used to simulate land-use changes because of their simplicity, flexibility, intuitiveness and ability to incorporate the spatial and temporal dimensions of processes. A small number of CA-based models have been developed to simulate changes in multiple land uses, most of which use the hierarchical allocation strategy and/or inertia factors to enable these CA models to do so accurately. However, only some of these models allow explicit determination of the allocation sequence for active land uses according to the hierarchical allocation strategy and the objective calculation of inertia factors. In this paper, we proposed a CA-based model, i.e. the LAND System Cellular Automata model for Potential Effects (LANDSCAPE), with a hierarchical allocation strategy and resistances, to simulate changes in multiple land uses. Furthermore, we introduced effective ways to objectively determine the allocation sequence for active land uses and calculate resistances for individual land uses. The results show that the LANDSCAPE model, with a calibrated allocation sequence and resistances, is reliable and accurate for simulating multiple land-use changes.