基于模糊识别的水资源承载能力综合评价

应用模糊识别模型解决水资源承载能力综合评价问题,根据水资源承载能力相关因子自身的数据结构特性,通过模糊识别模型得到样本的级别特征值,从而达到对待评价区域的识别、归类,同时可以得到各相关因子在评价过程中的贡献率,实例部分将模型应用于全国30个省市、自治区的水资源承载能力评价,结果表明该方法的实用性和客观性。     

A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change

Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?’ 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?’ 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?’This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales.     

静压预制桩工程性状研究──以河南某电厂技改工程为例

以河南某电厂技改工程为例 ,根据现场检测结果 ,探讨了影响静压预制桩沉桩深度成因 ,分析了静压桩承载力的分布规律。研究结果证明静压桩的沉桩深度和承载力与地基土的性状密切相关。对于河南某电厂技改工程场地 ,尽管桩端进入砂较小深度 ,却可以在桩端平面附近良好土层的作用下提供较大的端阻力。     

Low-temperature thermodynamic properties of disordered zeolites of the natrolite group

 The heat capacity of paranatrolite and tetranatrolite with a disordered distribution of Al and Si atoms has been measured in the temperature range of 6–309 K using the adiabatic calorimetry technique. The composition of the samples is represented with the formula (Na_1.90K_0.22Ca_0.06)[Al_2.24Si_2.76O₁₀]·nH₂O, where n=3.10 for paranatrolite and n=2.31 for tetranatrolite. For both zeolites, thermodynamic functions (vibrational entropy, enthalpy, and free energy function) have been calculated. At T=298.15 K, the values of the heat capacity and entropy are 425.1 ± 0.8 and 419.1 ±0.8 J K⁻¹ mol⁻¹ for paranatrolite and 381.0 ± 0.7 and 383.2 ± 0.7 J K⁻¹ mol⁻¹ for tetranatrolite. Thermodynamic functions for tetranatrolite and paranatrolite with compositions corrected for the amount of extraframework cations and water molecules have also been calculated. The calculation for tetranatrolite with two water molecules and two extraframework cations per formula yields: C _p (298.15)=359.1 J K⁻¹ mol⁻¹, S(298.15) −S(0)=362.8 J K⁻¹ mol⁻¹. Comparing these values with the literature data for the (Al,Si)-ordered natrolite, we can conclude that the order in tetrahedral atoms does not affect the heat capacity. The analysis of derivatives dC/dT for natrolite, paranatrolite, and tetranatrolite has indicated that the water- cations subsystem within the highly hydrated zeolite may become unstable at temperatures above 200 K. Received: 30 July 2001 / Accepted: 15 November 2001     

A cellular model of Holocene upland river basin and alluvial fan evolution

The CAESAR (Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope And River) model is used to simulate the Holocene development of a small upland catchment (4·2 km²) and the alluvial fan at its base. The model operates at a 3 m grid scale and simulates every flood over the last 9200 years, using a rainfall record reconstructed from peat bog wetness indices and land cover history derived from palynological sources. Model results show that the simulated catchment sediment discharge above the alluvial fan closely follows the climate signal, but with an increase in the amplitude of response after deforestation. The important effects of sediment storage and remobilization are shown, and findings suggest that soil creep rates may be an important control on long term (>1000 years) temperate catchment sediment yield. The simulated alluvial fan shows a complex and episodic behaviour, with frequent avulsions across the fan surface. However, there appears to be no clear link between fan response and climate or land use changes suggesting that Holocene alluvial fan dynamics may be the result of phases of sediment storage and remobilization, or instabilities and thresholds within the fan itself. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关于水资源承载力理论与方法的研究

本文首先明确了水资源承载力的基本概念 ,指出可持续发展理论、水 -生态 -社会经济复合系统理论、二元模式下的水文循环机制和过程是水资源承载力研究的理论基础 ,对水资源承载力研究的基本内容、评价指标体系的建立和评价方法进行了较全面的概括和总结。     

资源环境与社会经济协调发展探析

文章首先回顾了资源环境与社会经济发展的理论，提出资源环境与社会经济协调发展内涵：一方面，要在资源环境承载力范围内发展社会经济，追求社会经济发展的最大化，另一方面，环境承载力是动态的，要依靠社会经济发展不断提高，这两个方面是相互作用、相互制约的。在此基础上，详细论述了资源环境与社会经济协调发展的内容,并从社会经济发展、资源环境管理等角度探讨了资源环境与社会经济协调发展的政策调控，通过建立节约型国民经济体系、深化资源环境管理，实现区域一体化，以保证资源环境与社会经济协调发展的实现。     

基于神经网络的单元自动机CA及真实和忧化的城市模拟

提出了一种基于神经网络的单元自动机（ＣＡ）。ＣＡ已被越来越多地应用在城市及其它地理现象的模拟中。ＣＡ模拟所碰到的最大问题是如何确定模型的结构和参数。模拟真实的城市涉及到使用许多空间变量和参数。当模型较复杂时，很难确定模型的参数值。本模型的结构较简单，模型的参数能通过对神经网络的训练来自动获取。分析表明，所提出的方法能获得更高的模拟精度，并能大大缩短寻找参数所需要的时间。通过筛选训练数据，本模型还可以进行优化的城市模拟，为城市规划提供参考依据。     

旅游心理容量的测定——以武陵源黄石寨景区为例

旅游容量是旅游规划和管理中的重要工具之一。该文引入边际满意度的概念,提出了旅游心理容量的满意度模型,并且以武陵源黄石寨景区为实证研究,进行了旅游心理容量的测定。     

旅游生态环境容量的经济学探讨

在总结旅游环境容量研究进展的基础上，提出了研究旅游环境容量意义及其概念体系，并就影响旅游环境容量的关键性因子－旅游生态环境容量进行了分析，运用经济学的理论和方法，提出了引起旅游生态环境容量的深层原因是外部不经济性，最后就为了实现资源环境的可持续发展，应该从法律、行政，经济、社会等角度对社会各利益加以协调，构建了有效的制度平台和相应的措施，使外部成本内部化，并提出了解决这些问题的具体对策和建议。