湖北省山洪灾害气象成因研究

对湖北省200次山洪灾害个例逐时雨量及15次逐时水位、流量分析表明:山洪灾害雨量分布可归纳为单峰、双峰、多峰3种类型,其中单峰型所占比例较大;天气系统特征均表现有中尺度系统活动,单峰型主要以局地性降雨过程为主,强降雨历时短,双峰型主要以系统性降水过程为主,强降雨历时较长,多峰型主要以持续性降雨过程为主,强降雨历时长;激发山洪灾害的关键因素主要是6 h以内的雨强。     

基于PCA-GWR方法的村级贫困时空格局及致贫因素分析

探究贫困的时空变化及识别致贫因素,可以为扶贫政策的制定和实施提供参考。贫困是由多种因素造成的,地理加权回归（GWR）可以分析各因素对贫困的影响在空间上的差异,但致贫因素之间存在较强的相关性会导致多重共线性问题。本文探索了基于主成分的地理加权回归方法（PCA-GWR）,结合自然、经济和社会属性对贫困空间格局特征进行因素分析;为探究贫困的时空变化规律,探索用全局Moran's I指数、局部G系数对村级贫困发生率的时空格局变化特征进行分析。并以江西省永新县为研究区为实验区进行分析。研究结果表明：① PCA-GWR模型中变量的方差膨胀因子（VIF）值明显低于GWR模型变量的VIF值,PCA-GWR模型有效地解决了GWR模型中存在的多重共线性问题;② 永新县贫困格局分布与地形、植被分布等自然因素和低学历、缺乏劳动力、疾病等乡村主体自生发展能力相关,且每种影响因素与贫困发生率的关系呈现出不同的空间模式;③ 2013—2017年永新县贫困发生率从11.27%下降至0.97%,呈现出逐年下降趋势,且村间贫困差距逐年缩小,其中2013—2015年贫困发生率分布西高东低,2016年和2017年整体值较低;④ 从空间相关性来看：全局上,2013—2016年表现出空间正相关,2017年呈现随机分布;局部上,2013—2016年的冷、热点分布变化不大,冷点分布在中部,热点聚集在西南部,2017年热点分布在南部,冷点零星分布于北部地区。研究结果可为政府扶贫政策的制定提供参考。     

湖南电网严重冰灾天气成因分析

为研究2005年初和2008年初2次造成湖南电网严重冰灾的低温雨雪冰冻天气过程的成因,利用NCEP1°×1°全球再分析资料、地面常规气象观测资料及环流特征指数资料对过程期间高中低三层的水平和垂直结构进行了诊断分析,并分析了两次冰冻天气过程中各项环流特征指数与气温的相关性,结果表明:副高强度持续偏强,中层有暖层存在,850hPa与700hPa有明显的逆温层,700hPa强劲的西南急流,850hPa南北温差锋区的建立和维持,异常强大的冷高压长时间控制是造成两次冰灾过程的主要原因;地面降水、相对湿度、日平均气温、日最低气温、风向风速均与电线覆冰直径有关,温度垂直结构、环流指数和地形也与冰冻有一定关系。     

青田县石平川钼矿地区的地质灾害

本文简要介绍了在1996年8月1日的9608号台风的影响下,青田县石平川钼矿地区发生的地质灾害,初步分析了这些地质灾害发生的原因。     

试论粤方言新词语的特点及其成因

新词语是社会变革发展的一面“镜子”,它既丰富了现代汉语的词汇,又对社会发展带来深远的影响。近二十年来,处于改革开放前沿的粤方言区产生了许多方言色彩浓厚的新词语。以粤方言为研究对象,描述了粤方言新词语的特点,并分析其形成具有:经济、地缘、文化、心理等方面因素。     

中国近海海平面变化研究进展

回顾和总结了近年来有关我国近海地区海平面变化的研究进展。综述了海平面变化的原因，海平面资料获取手段的发展，分析研究海平面变化的方法和模型以及海平面上升速率方面的主要成果；简要介绍了海平面均衡基准订正的意义和主要结论；阐述了1985国家高程基准研究工作和成果。     

上海洋山深水港区12年来海床冲淤变化分析

洋山深水港区海域是由大、小洋山两条岛链围成的喇叭口型的海域,是以落潮流为主、高含沙量、强潮流的潮汐水道,泥沙运动主要以悬沙为主。通道内潮流基本为东南-西北向往复流,潮流平均流速为1.0～1.5 m/s,最大流速可达2.0～2.5 m/s,平均含沙量在1.4 kg/m3。对上海洋山深水港区的水文地貌特性、海床冲淤演变以及冲淤变化原因等作了分析。结果认为,伴随着工程建设的进程,陆域边界不断地改变,海床的冲淤演变也随着不断地调整,逐步形成了目前"南淤北冲"的海床冲淤格局。洋山港竣工后三年又步入了稳定的调整期,冲淤变化幅度趋于逐年减小。     

一次甘肃天水强冰雹的雷达回波特征及成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、天气雷达以及NCEP FNL再分析资料,对2017年5月18日下午天水一次强冰雹天气的雷达回波结构演变特征和成因进行了详细分析。结果表明:(1)降雹对流单体低层反射率因子呈现出明显的"V"型缺口,最大回波强度出现在低层,为63 d Bz。反射率因子垂直剖面呈对流单体有界弱回波区和其上的回波悬垂,相应的径向速度垂直剖面呈中低层径向风有明显的辐合特征,高层转为辐散,尤其风暴顶附近。(2)对流单体发生在对流层中层河套地区至甘肃河东东部低涡及其附近冷区和河西中部高压脊及其东北部冷池和低层甘肃与宁夏交界处冷性低涡分别为干冷空气入侵和暖湿气流辐合抬升提供有利条件的环境背景下;较高CAPE值和低CIN值有利于强对流天气发生;对流层中低层深厚的上升气流,中层下沉气流和0℃层以上强气流上升有利于对流单体水汽输送以及生成、发展和维持;距地高度2600～2900 m的0℃层为大冰雹落地提供了环境条件。(3)冰雹临近预警的雷达参数化指标为最大反射率因子达55 d Bz,VIL最大值和VIL密度分别达25 kg·m-2和2. 3 g·m-3。     

Beach erosion as a function of variations in the sediment budget,Sandy Hook,New Jersey,U.S.A.

Many of the world's beaches have recently been eroding, even on progradational landforms. This study uses the sediment budget approach to identify and rank the causes of the hazard along Sandy Hook spit where the primary recreational beach has been eroding at about 10 m/yr since 1953 and 23 m/yr in the 1970s. Large spatial variations in longshore sediment transport are found to result from differences in refracted wave energies and intersegmental sediment transport. Erosion results from a 60 per cent deficit (-270,000 m³/yr) in the sediment budget that is primarily caused by (1) refraction induced locally high waves that increase the transport rate by 100,000 m³, and (2) shore protection structures that have lessened the longshore sediment inputs by an additional 100,000 m³/yr. A storm index is presented to analyse secular climatic variation. It suggests that the annual sediment transport rate may vary by as much as ±50 per cent about the mean and that recently, above normal storm wave energies are responsible for about 60,000 m³/yr of the budget deficit. Rising sea levels and storm overwash each account for only about one per cent of the sediment loss. Pulses of sediment, induced by accelerated erosion at the feeder beach locale of spit segments, are found to move downdrift. They alter the geomorphology of the spit through episodic extensions of the spit segments with lag times exceeding one year per segment.     

Assessing the relative role of climate change and human activities in sandy desertification of Ordos region,China

Climate change and human activities are driving forces of sandy desertification and the relative role of them in sandy desertification is the hot point in related researches. A study was carried to assess the relative role of climate change and human activities in sandy desertification of Ordos region in China. Potential NPP and the difference between potential and actual NPP were selected as indicators to assess the relative role of climate change and human activities in sandy desertification, respectively. Assessing methods were built based on some scenarios for the reversion and expansion of sandy desertification and the relative role of climate change and human activities in sandy desertification of Ordos region were assessed from 1981 to 2000. The results showed that although some local places experienced an expansion of sandy desertification, the change of sandy desertification of Ordos region from 1981 to 2000 showed a stably reversing trend. The relative role of climate change and human activities in sandy desertification of Ordos region varied at different temporal and spatial scales in the reversion and expansion processes. In the reversion of sandy desertification, climate change was the dominant factor in the period of 1981 to 1990 and the reversed areas mainly induced by climate change including Mu Us sandy land and the transition zone between temperate steppe and temperate deciduous scrubs in north east of Ordos region; however, human activities controlled the reversed process during the period from 1991 to 2000 and the areas mainly induced by human activities distributed in all banners of Ordos region. In the expansion of sandy desertification, human activities were the dominant factor in the period of 1981 to 1990 and the expanded areas mainly included the regions around common boundary of Hanggin, Dalad Banners and Dongsheng City; however, climate change dominated the expansion of sandy desertification from 1991 to 2000, the expanded areas equably distributed in the whole of Ordos region except the south east of Otog Qian, Uxin and Jungar Banners. Supported by Chinese National Academic Institutional Commonweal Research Programs (Grant No. 2005DIA3J006)