The Indian summer monsoon as revealed by the NCMRWF system

In this study, we present the mean seasonal features of the Indian summer monsoon circulation in the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) global data assimilation and forecast system. The large-scale budgets of heat and moisture are examined in the analyzed and model atmosphere. The daily operational analyses and forecasts (day 1 through day 5) produced for the summer seasons comprising June, July and August of 1995 and 1993 have been considered for the purpose. The principal aim of the study is two-fold. Primarily, to comprehend the influence of the systematic errors over the Indian summer monsoon, secondarily, to analyze the performance of the model in capturing the interseasonal variability. The heat and moisture balances show reduction in the influx of heat and moisture in the model forecasts compared to the analyzed atmosphere over the monsoon domain. Consequently, the diabatic heating also indicates reducing trend with increase in the forecast period. In effect, the strength of Indian summer monsoon, which essentially depends on these parameters, weakens considerably in the model forecasts. Despite producing feeble monsoon circulation, the model captures interseasonal variability realistically. Although, 1995 and 1993 are fairly normal monsoon seasons, the former received more rainfall compared to the latter in certain pockets of the monsoon domain. This is clearly indicated by the analyzed and model atmosphere in terms of energetics.     

THE ENERGY BUDGETS UNDER DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS OVER HUAIHE RIVER BASIN DURING HUBEX FIELD OBSERVATION PERIODS IN 1999

In different synoptic conditions and at different time scales,the analysis of the energy budgetsby Bowen Ratio Method and Bulk Schemes over Huaihe River Basin during the field observationperiods of HUBEX in 1999 shows that,(1)the averaged latent heat flux is an order of magnitudemore than the averaged sensible heat flux during the observation period:(2)the variation of totalcloud amount is out of phase with the terms of energy budgets except for the downward longwaveradiation which maybe is related to the cloud's height and class:(3)the values of sensible andlatent heat fluxes are small during rain episodes,but thereafter,the values become high and thenup to maximum.It is similar to the other terms of the energy budgets except for the downwardlongwave radiation.The diurnal variation of energy budgets indicates that the daytime precipitationexerts great influence to the energy budgets,but the nighttime precipitation makes little influence;(4)the variation of the latent heat flux is in phase with the evaporation,which indicates that thelatent heat flux calculated by bulk schemes is reliable:(5)the means of the sensible and latentheat flux and momentum flux by bulk schemes for the time period from May to August are,respectively,30.71W/m~2.116.81W/m~2.2.86×10~(-2)N/m~2 in 1998 and 30.28W/m~2,107.35W/m~2,2.74×10~(-2)N/m~2 in 1999.The values of these two years are similar.During summer in1999 the magnitude and activity of sensible heat flux are strongest in June and those of the latentheat flux are in August.     

THE ENERGY BUDGETS UNDER DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS OVER HUAIHE RIVER BASIN DURING HUBEX FIELD OBSERVATION PERIODS IN 1999*

In different synoptic conditions and at different time scales,the analysis of the energy budgets by Bowen Ratio Method and Bulk Schemes over Huaihe River Basin during the field observation periods of HUBEX in 1999 shows that,(1) the averaged latent heat flux is an order of magnitude more than the averaged sensible heat flux during the observation period:(2) the variation of totalcloud amount is out of phase with the terms of energy budgets except for the downward longwave radiation which maybe is related to the cloud's height and class:(3) the values of sensible and latent heat fluxes are small during rain episodes,but thereafter,the values become high and then up to maximum.It is similar to the other terms of the energy budgets except for the downward longwave radiation.The diurnal variation of energy budgets indicates that the daytime precipitation exerts great influence to the energy budgets,but the nighttime precipitation makes little influence;(4) the variation of the latent heat flux is in phase with the evaporation,which indicates that the latent heat flux calculated by bulk schemes is reliable:(5) the means of the sensible and latent heat flux and momentum flux by bulk schemes for the time period from May to August are,respectively,30.71W/m².116.81W/m².2.86×10^-2N/m² in 1998 and 30.28W/m²,107.35W/m²,2.74×10^-2N/m² in 1999.The values of these two years are similar.During summer in 1999 the magnitude and activity of sensible heat flux are strongest in June and those of the latent heat flux are in August.     

Budget Calculations for Ozone and Its Precursors: Seasonal and Episodic Features Based on Model Simulations

Results from two air quality models (LOTOS, EURAD) have been used toanalyse the contribution of the different terms in the continuity equationto the budget of ozone, NO_x and PAN. Both models cover largeparts of Europe and describe the processes relevant for troposphericchemistry and dynamics. One of the models is designed to simulate episodesin the order of 1–2 weeks (EURAD), the other is focussing on theseasonal scale (LOTOS). Based on EURAD simulations it is found that theatmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in Central Europe during a summer-smogepisode in 1990 acts as a source of ozone, which is partly exported from theproduction region in Central Europe. About 40% of the ozone producedchemically in the ABL is lost from Central Europe due to net transport(large-scale and turbulent), 40% are deposited within the domain. Vertical mass exchange of ozone is dominated by the prevailing subsidenceand averaged vertical mass fluxes are directed downward. Averaged massfluxes of PAN, which has no stratospheric source, are upward in the upperpart of the ABL. The results from LOTOS are discussed for the same episodeand for a two month period (July/August 1990). The budget calculation showlarger chemical production for the LOTOS model compared to EURAD. Therelative importance of deposition and net transport, however, is in the sameorder. Differences between the two-month calculation and the one weekepisode are only important for Western Europe where the chemical production is enhanced by 30% during the summer-smog episode. The dependence ofthe results on initial and boundary values is discussed for ozone on thebasis of a simple sensitivity study with EURAD where ozone in the FT is setto 10 ppb initially. This leads to a reversal in the direction of averagedozone mass fluxes in the upper part of the ABL.     

TOWARDS A UNIFORM CONCEPT FOR THE COMPARISON AND EXTRAPOLATION OF ROCKWALL RETREAT AND ROCKFALL SUPPLY

Rates of rockwall retreat and rockfall supply are fundamental components of sediment budgets in steep environments. However, the standard procedure of referencing rockwall retreat rates using only lithology is inconsistent with research findings and results in a variability that exceeds three orders of magnitude. The concept proposed in this paper argues that the complexity inherent in rockfall studies can be reduced if the stages of (i) backweathering, (ii) filling and depletion of intermediate storage on the rock face and (iii) final rockfall supply onto the talus slopes are separated as these have different response functions and controlling factors. Backweathering responds to preweathering and weathering conditions whereas the filling and depletion of intermediate storage in the rock face is mainly a function of internal and external triggers. The noise apparent in backweathering rates and rockfall supply can be reduced by integrating the relevant controlling factors in the response functions. Simple conceptual models for the three stages are developed and are linked by a time‐dependent ‘rockfall delivery rate’, which is defined as the difference between backweathering and rockfall supply, thus reflecting the specific importance of intermediate storage in the rock face. Existing studies can be characterized according to their ‘rockfall delivery ratio’, a concept similar to the ‘sediment delivery ratio’ used in fluvial geomorphology. Their outputs can be qualified as trigger‐dependent rockfall supply rates or backweathering rates dependent on (pre‐)weathering conditions. It is shown that the existing quantitative backweathering and rockfall supply models implicitly follow the proposed conceptual models and can be accommodated into the uniform model. Suggestions are made for how best to incorporate non‐linearities, phase transitions, path dependencies and different timescales into rockfall response functions.     

Holocene sediment budgets in two river catchments in the Southern Upper Rhine Valley, Germany

The Holocene sediments of two catchments in the southern Upper Rhine valley have been quantified as part of the German LUCIFS Programme (RheinLUCIFS), which aims to quantify sediment fluxes in the Rhine catchment since the onset of agriculture in the Neolithic about 7500 years ago.The spatial distribution of the alluvial and colluvial sediments was derived using geological maps, with information on the thickness of these sediments from various sources including auger profiles and data from excavations. The sediments were subdivided into characteristic sedimentary storage types according to the different types of landscapes. For each of the sedimentary storage types an average thickness was assessed so that an integral sediment balance for the Holocene could be derived.For the different types of landscapes in the study area, 32 Holocene sedimentary storage types were determined, 21 in the Elz catchment (1500 km²) and 11 in the Möhlin catchment (230 km²). By adding up the sediment volumes of all single sedimentary storage types the total Holocene sediment volumes for the two catchments were calculated. Erosion depths were determined by dividing the sediment volumes through the potential erosion areas (slope > 2%) and by assuming a sediment delivery ratio (SDR) between 0 and 0.4. The total erosion for the potential erosion areas during the Holocene was calculated as 31–61 cm in the Elz catchment and 44–79 cm in the Möhlin catchment.     

Lateglacial river sediment budgets in the Mass valley,The Netherlands

Three Weichselian Lateglacial (13-10 ka) terraces have been distinguished in the Maas valley which were formed when the Maas repeatedly incised in an increasingly narrow floodplain. The River Maas changed from a braided system (before c. 12·5 ka) via a transitional phase to a high-sinuosity meandering river (c. 12·5-11 ka), to a braided system (c. 11-10 ka) again and finally to a low-sinuosity meandering river (after 10 ka). These fluvial style changes involved phases of erosion and deposition. The amounts of eroded, deposited and reworked sediment during each Lateglacial period are calculated in this paper. The sediment budgets allow comparison of the transport capacity of the different river styles, which will help to explain the observed fluvial changes. Borehole information regarding the thickness of terrace sediments and lateral extensions of the Lateglacial terrace surfaces were combined in a three-dimensional approach, using a geographical information system. Multiple regression analyses were used in calculating altitudes of entire terrace surfaces from individual altitude measurements. It will be shown that the fluvial development of the Maas can be explained not only by climate-related external factors such as sediment-discharge ratios and discharge characteristics, but possibly also by intrinsic factors such as floodplain dimensions and the channel morphology of previous periods. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近似实际风场条件下台风中扰动的稳定性

在与实际台风风场近似一致的环境流场条件下,应用柱坐标中的正压无辐散模式,讨论了台风中扰动的稳定性问题。研究表明,台风暖心结构和台风外围适当强度的冷空气活动有利于台风中扰动发展,且台风愈强(气压愈低),台风中扰动愈易发展。      

Historic and contemporary sediment transfer in an upland Pennine catchment,UK

A sediment budget for an upland catchment–reservoir system at Burnhope Reservoir, North Pennines, UK has been developed. This provides a framework for quantifying historic and contemporary sediment yields and drainage basin response to disturbance from climate change and human activities in the recent past. Bathymetric survey, core sampling, ¹³⁷Cs dating and aerial photographs have been used to assess sediment accumulation in the reservoir. The average reservoir sedimentation rate is 1·24 cm yr^?1 (annual sediment yield 33·3 t km^?2 yr^?1 ± 10%, trap efficiency 92%). Mean annual reservoir sedimentation over the 67 year period has been estimated at 592 t ± 10%. Inputs of suspended sediment from direct catchwater streams account for 54% of sediment supply to the budget (best estimate yield of 318 t yr^?1 ± 129%), while those from actively eroding reservoir shorelines contribute 328 t yr^?1 ± 92%. Sediment yield estimates from stream monitoring and reservoir sedimentation are an order of magnitude lower than those reported from South Pennine reservoirs of comparable drainage basin area. Analysis of historical rainfall series for the catchment shows fluctuations in winter and summer rainfall patterns over the past 62 years. From 1976 to 1998 there has been a diverging trend between winter and summer rainfall, with a large increase in winter and a gradual decrease in summer totals. Periods of maximum variation occur during the summer drought events of the late 1970s, early 1980s and mid‐1990s. Analysis of the particle size of core sediments highlights abrupt increases in sand‐sized particles in the top 20 cm of the core. Based on the ¹³⁷Cs chronology, these layers were deposited from the late 1970s onwards and relate to these diverging rainfall records and rapidly fluctuating reservoir levels. This provides evidence of potential sediment reworking within the reservoir by rapid water‐level rise after drought. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting spatial patterns in riverbank erosion for catchment sediment budgets

Riverbank erosion is an important component of catchment sediment budget models but remains one of the least well-understood processes, particularly at large spatial scales. Here, we develop and test a new bank migration model in New Zealand for large catchment applications that (1) better represents spatial variability in factors influencing bank erosion and (2) improves predictive performance. We represent bank migration rates as a function of reach-scale stream power, channel sinuosity, soil texture, valley confinement, riparian woody vegetation and channel protection works. The new model significantly improves prediction compared to the SedNetNZ model. Comparison of measured bank migration rates with individual variables shows percent silt + clay derived from soil maps exhibited the strongest correlation, whereas other variables were non-significant. The model results demonstrate that improved prediction can be achieved by combining spatial representation of multiple factors over large areas, despite low correlation between individual variables and bank migration rates.