对空间数据不确定性研究的思考

对GIS中空间数据不确定性研究中存在的问题进行思考后提出了5点建议。主要包括:1)要区分GIS中确定性目标和不确定性目标;2)要区分用离散点逼近曲线/曲面的逼近误差和离散点自身量测误差及其传播;3)要研究GIS中的几何不确定性,更要重视研究属性和时态不确定性;4)要研究空间数据质量,更要研究空间信息服务的质量;5)空间数据不确定性研究要努力向实际应用转化。     

DLG质量检查探究

介绍使用4DChecker进行质量检查时所需检查的内容,分析质量问题产生的原因,阐述质量检查的方法（手段）,总结4DChecker软件的应用方法。     

改进的超级集成预报方法在长江三角洲地区O3预报中的应用

针对当前单模式系统臭氧（O₃）预报的不确定性问题,提出了一种基于活动区间的多模式超级集成的、高效的预报方法。本研究基于长江三角洲（长三角）地区多模式空气质量预报系统,将改进后的超级集成预报方法（AR-SUP）运用到2015年长三角地区的O₃预报中,并与滑动训练期的超级集成预报（R-SUP）、多模式集成平均预报（EMN）、消除偏差的集成平均预报（BREM）对比,结果表明AR-SUP对预报效果的改善最明显,其在暖季和冷季的均方根误差（RMSE）较最优单模式平均下降了20%和23%。将AR-SUP运用到48 h和72 h预报中发现,当预报时效增加时该方法依旧保持较高的预报技巧。多项统计数据均证明AR-SUP在研究时段内所有站点均能显著减小O₃预报误差、提高整体相关性和一致性,有效提高当前短期（三天）预报准确率。     

Relationship between the variation of water quality in rivers and the characteristics of watershed at Miyun,Beijing, China

Based on the characteristics of land use and drainage network of the upper watershed of the Miyun Res-ervoir, Beijing, 26 monitoring and sampling sites were selected in different sub-catchments. Temporal and spatial variations in nutrient loss were dealt with in this paper in terms of the monitoring data on the water quality of the main tributaries flowing into the Miyun Reservoir. In combination with the monitoring data on water quality, the impacts of watershed characteristics including land-use type, landscape pattern, and drainage density were assessed, The concentrations of nutrients in the rainy season are higher than those in other seasons, and the concentrations of NO3--N are linearly related to those of total N which is the main form of nitrogen present in the fiver water. The concentrations of nitrogen become higher toward the reservoir along the main rivers. The seasonal variation of ni-trogen in the watershed affected by intensive human activities is very obvious; in the watershed with steady or low water flow, the seasonal variation of nitrogen is less obvious. Forest land and grassland can trap and filter nitrogen effectively. Land-use pattern also has important impacts on the loss of nitrogen. The concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in the water bodies show great temporal and spatial variations. On a temporal scale, the concentrations of TN and TP in the rainy reason are higher than those in other seasons. On a spatial scale, the concentrations of TN and NO3--N in the Qingshui River and Chaohe River are highest all the time. The spatial variation of TP is distinct, being obvious at sampling sites near villages. The form of nitrogen and phosphorus loss varies in different hydrological seasons. Dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus are the main forms in streams in non-rainy seasons, the dissolved nitro-gen and total nitrogen decrease in percentage in the rainy season. Particulate nitrogen and phosphorus are the main forms in some rivers. The concentrations of TN and NO3--N from orchards and villages are high whereas those from forest land are lowest. Land-use pattern has impacts on TN and NO3--N losses, at the sampling sites near the source landscape, the concentrations are higher than those at the sampling sites near the sink landscape. Water quality of the rivers which flow into the Miyuan Reservior is influenced by the composition of adjacent soils.     

Neural network prediction of nitrate in groundwater of Harran Plain, Turkey

Monitoring groundwater quality by cost-effective techniques is important as the aquifers are vulnerable to contamination from the uncontrolled discharge of sewage, agricultural and industrial activities. Faulty planning and mismanagement of irrigation schemes are the principle reasons of groundwater quality deterioration. This study presents an artificial neural network (ANN) model predicting concentration of nitrate, the most common pollutant in shallow aquifers, in groundwater of Harran Plain. The samples from 24 observation wells were monthly analysed for 1 year. Nitrate was found in almost all groundwater samples to be significantly above the maximum allowable concentration of 50 mg/L, probably due to the excessive use of artificial fertilizers in intensive agricultural activities. Easily measurable parameters such as temperature, electrical conductivity, groundwater level and pH were used as input parameters in the ANN-based nitrate prediction. The best back-propagation (BP) algorithm and neuron numbers were determined for optimization of the model architecture. The Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm was selected as the best of 12 BP algorithms and optimal neuron number was determined as 25. The model tracked the experimental data very closely (R = 0.93). Hence, it is possible to manage groundwater resources in a more cost-effective and easier way with the proposed model application.     

深厚软土地基爆破挤淤效果检测方法及应用实例

爆破挤淤抛石置换断面的结构分层特点及电磁参数差异具备探地雷达检测的基本物理前提。通过浙江洞头某海涂围堤的检测表明,对于底部深度达35 m左右的深厚抛石层,可采用16 MHz低频天线和合适的测试参数探测,查明落底深度、宽度以及腰部宽度等堤身参数,突破探地雷达检测深厚抛石层的局限性。其底部泥石混合层难以识别。     

Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996     

快速城市化进程中的太湖水环境保护:困境与出路

太湖流域经济发达、城市化水平高,伴随着城市化过程的各种环境问题十分突出。城市化过程对太湖水环境质量的负面影响主要表现在生活污水排放量增加、人畜粪便对水污染的程度加剧、化学肥料施用量增加、非点源污染负荷增加以及自然景观对污染物的去除能力降低等方面,由此导致的营养盐入湖量增加将严重制约太湖水质的改善。充分认识并努力减轻这些负面影响是改善太湖水环境质量的前提,在分析问题的基础上提出了一些针对性的应对策略。     

威海市地质环境质量评价

本文在前期资料收集和资源环境承载力评价的基础上,结合威海市当地地质特征,选择地质环境条件、地质环境问题和人类工程活动作为一级评价指标,地形地貌、地下水资源、区域地壳稳定性、地质灾害、地下水污染、海水入侵、人口密度、农业活动、矿业活动作为二级评价指标,采用层次分析法和模糊数学法对威海市地质环境质量进行综合评价.研究结果表...     

石羊河流域水质环境遥感监测评价研究

利用遥感技术对流域水质环境的监测评价,可实现全流域水质的同步监测,其监测结果具有可比性。以石羊河流域为实验区,研究了一种基于遥感技术的河流水质环境监测与评价方法,该方法克服了传统监测方法的局限性,完善了表面水质遥感信息获取的基础方法研究体系。