X-ray measurements of black hole X-ray binary source GRS 1915+105 and the evolution of hard X-ray spectrum

We report the spectral measurement of GRS 1915+105 in the hard X-ray energy band of 20–140keV. The observations were made on March 30th, 1997 during a quiescent phase of the source. We discuss the mechanism of emission of hard X-ray photons and the evolution of the spectrum by comparing the data with earlier measurements and an axiomatic model for the X-ray source.     

二元桩复合地基设计计算及其检测方法探讨

对两种桩型所构成的二元桩复合地基的设计计算方法进行了全面的对比分析,指出了一些错误的荷载板放置方式,提出了二元桩复合地基的一些载荷试验检测方法。     

基于主体功能区划的上海市国土空间结构研究

构建由资源环境承载力子系统、现有开发密度子系统、发展潜力子系统3个子系统组成的上海市主体功能区指标体系。运用2012年数据计算各指标体系的综合得分,并制作Moran散点图。同时,依据资源环境承载力、现有开发密度与发展潜力这3个因素的综合评分以及Moran散点图的象限把上海市各区县划分成六大功能亚类:核心功能提升亚区、核心功能优化亚区、战略发展亚区、都市发展亚区、城市拓展亚区与生态涵养亚区。最后,剖析这六大功能亚区与国家层面上的优化开发区、重点开发区与限制开发区之间的内在联系。     

1323号强台风菲特登陆后迅速衰亡的原因分析

利用中国气象局上海台风研究所最佳路径资料和NECP-FNL 1°×1°格点资料,分析了1323号强台风菲特(Fitow)登陆过程中环境条件、水汽和动能收支及其结构变化特征,研究其登陆后迅速消亡的原因。结果表明,"菲特"的消亡过程涉及与中纬度高空槽及另一台风的相互作用。登陆前,"菲特"从中纬度高空槽的相互作用中获得斜压位能,并从与另一台风丹娜丝(Danas)之间的偏东风低空急流中获得水汽输送,同时,高、低空急流的有利配置及较小的环境风垂直切变为其维持和发展提供有利条件。"菲特"登陆后,一方面与台风丹娜丝之间的水汽通道断裂失去潜热能的供应,另一方面冷空气侵入到台风中心,台风动能转化为斜压位能,同时高、低空风场配置加大其环境风的垂直切变,台风失去其结构特征而迅速消亡。     

NUMERICAL ANALYSIS ON THE ROLE OF TROPICAL STORM NAMTHEUN IN THE UNUSUAL TRACKS OF THREE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2010

Tropical cyclones (TCs) Lionrock, Kompasu, and Namtheun were formed successively within 40 hours in 2010. Over the next several days afterwards, these TCs exhibited unusual movements which made operational prediction difficult. Verifications are performed on the forecasts of the tracks of these TCs with six operational models, including three global and three regional models. Results showed that the trends of TC tracks could be reproduced by these models, whereas trajectory turning points and landfall locations were not simulated effectively. The special track of Lionrock should be associated with its direct interaction with Namtheun, according to a conceptual model of binary TC interaction. By contrast, the relation between Kompasu and Namtheun satisfied the criteria for a semi-direct interaction. Numerical experiments based on the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Tropical Cyclone forecast Model (GRAPES-TCM) further confirmed the effect of Namtheun on the unusual tracks of Lionrock and Kompasu. Finally, the physical mechanism of binary TC interaction was preliminarily proposed.     

CONTRAST ANALYSIS OF APRIL TYPHOONS LEO AND NEOGURI

The conventional observations data,NCAR/NCEP-2 reanalysis data,and NOAA outgoing longwave radiation data are used to investigate different characteristics of Leo and Neoguri,two April typhoons that ever made landfall on the continent of China over the past 60 years.The results showed that both Leo and Neoguri occurred during the La Nina events.Strong convective activity,weak vertical wind shear and upper-level divergence were in favor of the formation of these April typhoons.Leo originated from a monsoon depression and Neoguri evolved from an easterly wave.The meandering moving track of Leo attributed to strong northeast monsoon and a weak and changeable subtropical high;the steady moving track of Neoguri was governed by a strong and stable subtropical high.Leo and Neoguri had similar terrain conditions and intensities during landfall but were different in precipitation as water vapor transport and duration of kinetic uplifting resulted in apparent discrepancies between them.     

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Evaluations Using an Alternative Verification Technique

In this study, six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique. This technique is used to verify intensity forecasts if those forecasts call for a typhoon to dissipate or if the real typhoon dissipates. Using a contingency table, skill scores, chance, and probabilities are computed. It is shown that the skill of the six tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was highest for the 12-h forecasts, while the lowest skill of all the six models did not occur in 72-h forecasting. For both the 2008 and 2009 seasons, the average probabilities of the forecast intensity having a small error (6 m s-1) tended to decrease steadily. Some of the intensity forecasts had small skill scores, but the associated probabilities of the forecast intensity errors > 15 m s-1 were not the highest.     

超强台风“芭玛”移动路径及强度异常分析

0917号超强台风是2009年在西北太平洋地区生成的生命期最长、登陆次数最多、移动路径最为怪异的超强台风.本文利用多种资料,分析了"芭玛"强度及移动路径特点,并对引起其移动路径及强度异常变化的原因进行了初步分析,结果表明:(1)9月底至10月中旬,副高发生了一次"加强西进-减弱东撤-加强西进"的周期性活动,对台风移动路...     

Establishment of an Objective Standard for the Definition of Binary Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

To develop an objective standard for defining binary tropical cyclones (BTCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP), two best-track datasets, from the China Meteorological Administration and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, were adopted for statistical analyses on two important characteristics of BTCs—two TCs approaching each other, and counterclockwise spinning. Based on the high consistency between the two datasets, we established an objective standard, which includes a main standard for defining BTCs and a secondary standard for identifying typical/atypical BTCs. The main standard includes two requirements: two coexisting TCs are a pair of BTCs if (i) the separation distance is ≤ 1800 km, and (ii) this separation maintains for at least 12 h. Meanwhile, the secondary standard defines a typical BTC as one for which there is at least one observation when the two TCs approach each other and spin counterclockwise simultaneously. Under the standard, the ratio of typical BTCs increases as the BTC duration increases or the minimum distance between the two TCs decreases. Then, using the JTWC dataset, it was found that there are 505 pairs of BTCs during the period 1951?2014, including 328 typical BTCs and 177 atypical BTCs, accounting for 65.0% and 35.0% of the total, respectively. In addition, a study of two extreme phenomena—the maximum approaching speed and the maximum counterclockwise angular velocity in typical BTCs—shows that the configuration of the circulation conditions and the distribution of the BTCs favor the formation of these extreme phenomena.     

台风纳沙和海棠的预报着眼点分析

2017年7月的两个台风(1709号台风纳沙和1710号台风海棠)在近海发生罕见的近距离相互作用和环流合并,给登陆点的预报及二次登陆时的强度预报造成很大困难,包括ECMWF和NCEP等在内的大部分数值模式均未能较好地做出预报,但实际业务中的官方预报则较为准确。本文总结了实际业务中的预报经验,并对预报着眼点进行了分析归纳,主要包括:利用天气学模型、模式的偏差订正经验和集合预报结果等,分析模式对副热带高压等大尺度环流背景预报的合理性;通过分析双台风最靠近时刻的相对强度来确定主环流,从而判断两个台风的登陆时间差、各自的极值强度和陆上维持机制的差异;充分考虑登陆台湾的路径角度和过岛时间这两个影响因子,从而修订台风二次登陆时的强度。