煤系地层大跨度隧道围岩结构稳定性研究

针对目前大跨穿煤隧道的研究热点,以重庆市绕城高速公路环山坪隧道为研究对象,在界定大跨度隧道及分析其围岩稳定性关键影响因素的基础上,结合现场监测和数值模拟对大跨度穿煤隧道围岩结构稳定性进行了分析。结果表明,大跨度隧道各处等效应力集中对扁平率变化敏感程度不同,拱脚最为敏感,拱顶基本不随扁平率的改变而变化。隧道穿越软弱煤层段时,围岩应力重分布受影响明显,拱顶位移随开挖面不断推进急剧增加,且隧道围岩塑形圈不断向拱顶围岩内部发展。尤其当煤层软弱带与隧道顺层相交时,隧道荷载结构偏压效应凸显,偏压荷载随煤层倾角变陡而增大,易造成支护结构失稳破坏,在设计及施工中应特别加以重视。     

BDS/GPS卫星数据质量分析软件开发及应用研究

通过对TEQC数据质量模块相关算法进行分析,实现了支持RINEX2、3 格式的BDS/GPS卫星数据质量分析软件DataQC的开发,其主要参数包括数据完整率、多路径指数、信噪比和周跳等,并增加卫星分布状况以及电离层、接收机硬件延迟偏差估计功能。通过多组数据验证,软件计算指标与TEQC结果具有较高的一致性;在电离层估计方面,与全球电离层格网（global ionosphere maps, GIM）插值计算结果的RMS在3 TECu之内,并可用于接收机硬件延迟偏差稳定性的分析。     

一种顾及GNSS系统间偏差的伪距单点定位方法

对系统间偏差的成分和影响因素进行分析,发现各项改正后残余误差对系统间偏差估值的影响可归结为与卫星编号和广播星历更新相关。提出一种新的顾及参与解算卫星构成的系统间偏差估计方案,新方案能够在仅有4颗多模GNSS卫星可见时提供可靠的位置服务。     

利用强震记录校正的芦山7.0级地震峰值加速度震动图

运用考虑场地效应的震动图快速生成方法,综合考虑震中地区地质构造背景、震源机制解结果及中国西部地区地震动参数衰减特征,估计了2013年4月20日芦山7.0级地震加速度分布图.利用地震后获得的强震记录计算了强震台站观测值与借助经验性衰减关系估计值之间的系统偏差,进一步修正了峰值加速度分布图.结果显示,由于芦山地震属于高角度逆冲型地震,加大了震区的震动程度,特别是震中附近30km范围内震动程度比校正前的结果更高.     

A note on the applicability of log-Gumbel and log-logistic probability distributions in hydrological analyses: II. Assumed pdf

Abstract

Applicability of log-Gumbel (LG) and log-logistic (LL) probability distributions in hydrological studies is critically examined under real conditions, where the assumed distribution differs from the true one. The set of alternative distributions consists of five two-parameter distributions with zero lower bound, including LG and LL as well as lognormal (LN), linear diffusion analogy (LD) and gamma (Ga) distributions. The log-Gumbel distribution is considered as both a false and a true distribution. The model error of upper quantiles and of the first two moments is analytically derived for three estimation methods: the method of moments (MOM), the linear moments method (LMM) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). These estimation methods are used as methods of approximation of one distribution by another distribution. As recommended in the first of this two-part series of papers, MLM turns out to be the worst method, if the assumed LG or LL distribution is not the true one. It produces a huge bias of upper quantiles, which is at least one order higher than that of the other two methods. However, the reverse case, i.e. acceptance of LN, LD or Ga as a hypothetical distribution, while the LG or LL distribution is the true one, gives the MLM bias of reasonable magnitude in upper quantiles. Therefore, one should avoid choosing the LG and LL distributions in flood frequency analysis, especially if MLM is to be applied.     

宁夏6级以上历史地震参数复核与校订

通过查阅宁夏6级以上地震的历史记载和各版地震目录,对历史资料进行了收集和整理,并对固原6级以上的历史地震进行实地考证。最后通过研究分析对部分历史地震参数作出复核和校订。     

导航卫星钟差预报的Elman神经网络算法研究

针对卫星钟差不能被精确模型化的问题,将具有较强记忆功能和强大计算能力的Elman神经网络运用到卫星钟差预报中,提出适用于卫星钟差预报的Elman模型。首先对原始钟差数据进行一次差处理,然后选择合适的神经网络结构建立预报效果最佳的Elman钟差预报模型,最后选用国际GNSS服务（IGS）提供的精密钟差数据进行GPS卫星钟差预报,并与二次多项式模型、附加周期项的多项式模型和灰色系统模型进行对比分析。结果表明,Elman模型进行1 d、7 d和30 d钟差预报的精度得到显著提高,分别达到亚ns、ns和μs级,表明该模型的钟差预报性能优于3种常用模型,在卫星钟差预报中具有可行性。     

Cass 5.1软件下的数字化内业纠错

阐述了数字化内业制图中,对外业测站错设而引起的大量碎部点测偏的内业纠正,重点探讨了错误产生后的平面和高程数据的纠错处理,有针对性地做出了说明。     

The GRAPES Variational Bias Correction Scheme and Associated Preliminary Experiments

The variational assimilation theory is generally based on unbiased observations. In practice, however, almost all observations suffer from biases arising from observational instruments, radiative transfer operator, precondition of data, and so on. Therefore, a bias correction scheme is indispensable. The current scheme for radiance bias correction in the GRAPES 3DVar system is an offline scheme. It is actually a static correction for the radiance bias before the process of cost function minimization. In consideration of its effects on forecast results, this kind of scheme has some shortcomings. Thus, this study provides a variational bias correction (VarBC) scheme for the GRAPES 3DVar system following Dee’s idea. In the VarBC scheme, the observation operator is modified and a new control variable is defined by taking the predictor coefficients as the control parameters. According to the feature of the GRAPES-3DVAR, an incremental formulation is applied and the original bias correction scheme is maintained in the actual process of observations. The VarBC is designed to co-exist with the original scheme, because it is a dynamic revision to the observational operator on the basis of the old method, i.e., it adjusts the model state vector along with the control parameters to an unbiased state in the process of minimization and the assimilation system remains consistent with available information automatically. Preliminary experimental results show that the mean departures of background-minus-observation and analysis-minus-observation are reduced as expected. In a case study of the heavy rainfall that happened in South China on 11–13 June 2008, the 500-hPa geopotential height is better simulated using the analyzed field from the VarBC as the initial condition.     

机载激光测深精度外部检核方法

给出了单波束测深的原理,分析了单波束观测数据预处理模型,提出了采用单波束测深成果检核机载激光数据质量的技术方法,并以我国自行研制的机载激光测深系统为例,给出了该系统在某海区试验数据的外部检核结果.针对两种测深手段之间明显存在系统性偏差的问题,提出了以单波束测深成果为控制,对机载激光测深数据系统偏差进行校正和补偿的处理方...