塔里木盆地西部阿克莫木气藏地层压力特征

阿克莫木气田目前已有多口井完钻,各井在钻揭白垩系砂岩储层前,对地层压力纵向上的变化规律认识不清,在什么层位及深度下7″套管意见仍不统一。本文根据目前研究现状和生产面临问题,对白垩系各组地层分布规律、压力特征进行了详细研究,认为白垩系克孜勒苏群、库克拜组分布稳定,压力窗口相近,白垩系东巴组与上覆古近系阿尔塔什组压力窗口相近。建议今后该区钻探7″套管应下至库克拜组顶部-东巴组底部,减少地层漏失和油气勘探风险。     

The petroleum generation potential and effective oil window of humic coals related to coal composition and age

A worldwide data set of more than 500 humic coals from the major coal-forming geological periods has been used to analyse the evolution in the remaining (Hydrogen Index, HI) and total (Quality Index, QI) generation potentials with increasing thermal maturity and the ‘effective oil window’ (‘oil expulsion window’). All samples describe HI and QI bands that are broad at low maturities and that gradually narrow with increasing maturity. The oil generation potential is completely exhausted at a vitrinite reflectance of 2.0–2.2%R_o or T_max of 500–510 °C. The initial large variation in the generation potential is related to the original depositional conditions, particularly the degree of marine influence and the formation of hydrogen-enriched vitrinite, as suggested by increased sulphur and hydrogen contents. During initial thermal maturation the HI increases to a maximum value, HI_max. Similarly, QI increases to a maximum value, QI_max. This increase in HI and QI is related to the formation of an additional generation potential in the coal structure. The decline in QI with further maturation is indicating onset of initial oil expulsion, which precedes efficient expulsion. Liquid petroleum generation from humic coals is thus a complex, three-phase process: (i) onset of petroleum generation, (ii) petroleum build-up in the coal, and (iii) initial oil expulsion followed by efficient oil expulsion (corresponding to the effective oil window). Efficient oil expulsion is indicated by a decline in the Bitumen Index (BI) when plotted against vitrinite reflectance or T_max. This means that in humic coals the vitrinite reflectance or T_max values at which onset of petroleum generation occurs cannot be used to establish the start of the effective oil window. The start of the effective oil window occurs within the vitrinite reflectance range 0.85–1.05%R_o or T_max range 440–455 °C and the oil window extends to 1.5–2.0%R_o or 470–510 °C. For general use, an effective oil window is proposed to occur from 0.85 to 1.7%R_o or from 440 to 490 °C. Specific ranges for HI_max and the effective oil window can be defined for Cenozoic, Jurassic, Permian, and Carboniferous coals. Cenozoic coals reach the highest HI_max values (220–370 mg HC/g TOC), and for the most oil-prone Cenozoic coals the effective oil window may possibly range from 0.65 to 2.0%R_o or 430 to 510 °C. In contrast, the most oil-prone Jurassic, Permian and Carboniferous coals reach the expulsion threshold at a vitrinite reflectance of 0.85–0.9%R_o or T_max of 440–445 °C.     

Seismic image of the deep crust at the eastern margin of the Alps (Austria): indications for crustal extension in a convergent orogen

A 39-km-long deep seismic reflection profile recorded during two field campaigns in 1996 and 2002 provides a first detailed image of the deep crust at the eastern margin of the Eastern Alps (Austria). The ESE–WNW-trending, low-fold seismic line crosses Austroalpine basement units and extends approximately from 20 km west of the Penninic window group of Rechnitz to 60 km SSE of the Alpine thrust front.The explosive-source seismic data reveals a transparent shallow crust down to 5 km depth, a complexly reflective upper crust and a highly reflective lowermost crust. The upper crust is dominated by three prominent west-dipping packages of high-amplitude subparallel reflections. The upper two of these prominent packages commence at the eastern end of the profile at about 5 and 10 km depth and are interpreted as low-angle normal shear zones related to the Miocene exhumation of the Rechnitz metamorphic core complex. In the western portion of the upper crust, east-dipping and less significant reflections prevail. The lowermost package of these reflections is suggested to represent the overall top of the European crystalline basement.Along the western portion of the line, the lower crust is characterised by a 6–8-km-thick band of high-amplitude reflection lamellae, typically observed in extensional provinces. The Moho can be clearly defined at the base of this band, at approximately 32.5 km depth. Due to insufficient signal penetration, outstanding reflections are missing in the central and eastern portion of the lower crust. We speculate that the result of accompanying gravity measurements and lower crustal sporadic reflections can be interpreted as an indication for a shallower Moho in the east, preferable at about 30.5 km depth.The high reflectivity of the lowermost part of the lower crust and prominent reflection packages in the upper crust, the latter interpreted to represent broad extensional mylonite zones, emphasises the latest extensional processes in accordance with eastward extrusion.     

老盐井组井型互换再利用工程实践

水平钻井连通水溶采卤一直是开采井矿盐资源最常用和最经济有效的手段,但由于地层条件复杂、饱和卤水结晶、套管破损等因素造成盐井组采卤运行过程中通道堵塞,一直是制约盐井组运行年限的主要原因。近些年,对堵塞井组修治常用方法有憋压、通井、开窗侧钻,其中水平井开窗侧钻重新对接现有溶腔在很多盐田区块修井中被广泛应用。在河北宁晋石盐田Y2-Y4井组修井过程中,存在老溶腔无法再利用的情况,此时老溶腔成为井组二次对接的“累赘”。在该区块首次采用井组井型互换（水平井改直井,直井改水平井）的方法,避开了老溶腔,实现了老井组的再利用。     

瞬变电磁采样函数优化法降噪技术

常用的双极性同步采样方法对瞬变电磁系统的观测噪声具有一定的抑制作用,但在实际工作中其噪声抑制能力仍显不足.本文在双极性同步采样方法基础上提出一种优化方法,以提升瞬变电磁系统的噪声抑制能力,即：通过对取样道加高斯窗函数的方式,赋予取样道内各采样点合适的累加权重,提升系统对取样道内高频噪声的抑制能力;使用高斯窗函数与梳状滤波器构造复合窗函数,通过对包含所有叠加周期的完整观测序列加复合窗函数的形式优化各周期的叠加权重,提升系统对实际工频噪声的抑制能力.对优化前后不同采样函数的谱特性及野外实测数据的处理效果进行比较,结果表明本文提出的方法较传统双极性同步采样方法具有更强的噪声抑制能力.

     

Evaluating suspended sediment and turbidity reduction projects in a glacially conditioned catchment through dynamic regression and fluvial process-based modelling

Elevated turbidity (T_n) and suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) during and following flood events can degrade water supply quality and aquatic ecosystem integrity. Streams draining glacially conditioned mountainous terrain, such as those in the Catskill Mountains of New York State, are particularly susceptible to high levels of T_n and SSC sourced from erosional contact with glacial-related sediment. This study forwards a novel approach to evaluate the effectiveness of stream restoration best management practices (BMPs) meant to reduce stream T_n and SSC, and demonstrates the approach within the Stony Clove sub-basin of the Catskills, a water supply source for New York City. The proposed approach is designed to isolate BMP effects from natural trends in T_n and SSC caused by trends in discharge and shifts in average T_n or SSC per unit discharge (Q) following large flood events. We develop Dynamic Linear Models (DLMs) to quantify how T_n-Q and SSC-Q relationships change over time at monitoring stations upstream and downstream of BMPs within the Stony Clove and in three other sub-basins without BMPs, providing observational evidence of BMP effectiveness. A process-based model, the River Erosion Model, is then developed to simulate natural, hydrology-driven SSC-Q dynamics in the Stony Clove sub-basin (absent of BMP effects). We use DLMs to compare the modelled and observed SSC-Q dynamics and isolate the influence of the BMPs. Results suggest that observed reductions in SSC and T_n in the Stony Clove sub-basin have been driven by a combination of declining streamflow and the installed BMPs, confirming the utility of the BMPs for the monitored hydrologic conditions.     

Stormwater control impacts on runoff volume and peak flow: A meta-analysis of watershed modelling studies

Decades of research has concluded that the percent of impervious surface cover in a watershed is strongly linked to negative impacts on urban stream health. Recently, there has been a push by municipalities to offset these effects by installing structural stormwater control measures (SCMs), which are landscape features designed to retain and reduce runoff to mitigate the effects of urbanisation on event hydrology. The goal of this study is to build generalisable relationships between the level of SCM implementation in urban watersheds and resulting changes to hydrology. A literature review of 185 peer-reviewed studies of watershed-scale SCM implementation across the globe was used to identify 52 modelling studies suitable for a meta-analysis to build statistical relationships between SCM implementation and hydrologic change. Hydrologic change is quantified as the percent reduction in storm event runoff volume and peak flow between a watershed with SCMs relative to a (near) identical control watershed without SCMs. Results show that for each additional 1% of SCM-mitigated impervious area in a watershed, there is an additional 0.43% reduction in runoff and a 0.60% reduction in peak flow. Values of SCM implementation required to produce a change in water quantity metrics were identified at varying levels of probability. For example, there is a 90% probability (high confidence) of at least a 1% reduction in peak flow with mitigation of 33% of impervious surfaces. However, as the reduction target increases or mitigated impervious surface decreases, the probability of reaching the reduction target also decreases. These relationships can be used by managers to plan SCM implementation at the watershed scale.     

改进的最优窗宽理论对年径流量的插值预测研究——以黄河利津等站为例

针对小样本数据造成年径流量预测效果不理想的情况,以及非对称和非正态资料的处理问题,引入信息扩散和模糊映射思想,同时运用遗传算法改进最优窗宽理论,建立了新的扩散插值模型。该模型通过对零散数据点的信息进行模糊扩散,进而实现对有限数据点信息向其邻近区域点的概率插值。选取黄河利津站为例,根据其近70 a(1942—2011年)径流量实测数据,进行了缺损数据的插值和预测试验,同时与正态扩散插值模型进行对比分析,结果表明:1)预测值能较好地模拟实际径流序列的波形变化,对丰水年(如2007年)和枯水年(如2009年)的预报都比较准确;2)中长期预报(10a)平均相对误差仅为11.59%,相较传统方法有较大的改进;3)以黄河流域2个站点(花园口和兰州)和长江流域的3个站点(朱沱、宜昌和大通)年径流量预测试验以及海温资料的插值试验作为补充,验证了该算法的有效性和普适性。该模型可为实际水文数据资料的客观分析和中长期预报提供参考。     

基于“永盛轮”航线冰情分析的北极东北航线通航性研究

海冰冰情是开发、利用北极航道的关键信息,研究利用2006—2015年北极地区逐日海冰密集度数据,根据2013年"永盛轮"首航北极东北航道时所经航线为例,提取了航线冰情要素,包括航线通航窗口、逐日海冰密集度时空分布以及海冰密集度月标准差等,对航线通航条件进行了研究。根据航线冰情要素获得了十年间航线通航窗口的基本情况,十年间航线所经水域的大体通航情况和主要冰障位置,7—10月份航线所经水域海冰密集度的变化动态。通过对航线冰情要素的分析,得出影响航线的两个关键海域,并分析了"永盛轮"航线与关键水域航线通航窗口的变化趋势。     

Exploring the performance of spatio-temporal assimilation in an urban cellular automata model

Urban cellular automata (CA) models propagate and accumulate errors during the modeling process due to the model structure or stochastic processes involved. It is feasible to assimilate real-time observations into an urban CA model to reduce model uncertainties. However, the assimilation performance is sensitive to the spatio-temporal units in the assimilation algorithm, that is, spatial block size and window length (temporal interval). In this study, we coupled an assimilation model, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and a Logistic-CA model to simulate the urban dynamic in Beijing over a period of two decades. Our results indicate that the coupled EnKF-CA model outperforms the CA-alone counterpart by about 10% in terms of the figure of merit, which reflects the agreement of modeled pixels. We also find that the assimilation performance using a finer block (1 km) is better than that using a coarser block (5 km and 10 km) because of the better depiction of spatial heterogeneity using a finer block. Moreover, the improvement of intermediate outputs using the coupled EnKF-CA model is effective for a certain period (e.g. 5 years). This implies that a high-frequency assimilation may not significantly improve the model performance. The sensitivity analyses of spatio-temporal assimilation in the EnKF-CA model provide a better understanding of the assimilation mechanism that couples with land-use change models.