卫星臭氧资料的发展与应用

随着卫星探测技术的进步、天气学和气候学理论的不断完善,以及高性能计算机广泛应用,卫星臭氧资料的种类得到极大丰富并被应用到多个研究领域中,取得了一系列重要成果。文中介绍了主要星载臭氧探测仪的发展概况,回顾了卫星臭氧资料在气象领域的应用研究成果,主要包括卫星臭氧资料在气旋或低压过程中、全球或区域臭氧的气候分布及变化特征、高原臭氧分布及变化特点、数值应用等方面的应用研究,并展望了卫星臭氧资料研究的未来发展趋势。      

黄土斜坡稳定性的模糊信息分析法

本文基于黄土斜坡稳定性的实际资料,利用信息分配、模糊一二级近似推论及信息集中等原因建立了一套黄土斜坡稳定性的评价方法。用这套方法对一些黄土斜坡(非母体)稳定性进行了验证,其结果与实际情况一致。本方法已应用于兰州市滑坡防灾规划和皋兰山三台阁北侧几个滑坡及斜坡稳定性的研究中,效果良好。     

Turbidite bed thickness distributions: methods and pitfalls of analysis and modelling

Turbidite bed thickness distributions are often interpreted in terms of power laws, even when there are significant departures from a single straight line on a log–log exceedence probability plot. Alternatively, these distributions have been described by a lognormal mixture model. Statistical methods used to analyse and distinguish the two models (power law and lognormal mixture) are presented here. In addition, the shortcomings of some frequently applied techniques are discussed, using a new data set from the Tarcău Sandstone of the East Carpathians, Romania, and published data from the Marnoso‐Arenacea Formation of Italy. Log–log exceedence plots and least squares fitting by themselves are inappropriate tools for the analysis of bed thickness distributions; they must be accompanied by the assessment of other types of diagrams (cumulative probability, histogram of log‐transformed values, q–q plots) and the use of a measure of goodness‐of‐fit other than R², such as the chi‐square or the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics. When interpreting data that do not follow a single straight line on a log–log exceedence plot, it is important to take into account that ‘segmented’ power laws are not simple mixtures of power law populations with arbitrary parameters. Although a simple model of flow confinement does result in segmented plots at the centre of a basin, the segmented shape of the exceedence curve breaks down as the sampling location moves away from the basin centre. The lognormal mixture model is a sedimentologically intuitive alternative to the power law distribution. The expectation–maximization algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters and thus to model lognormal bed thickness mixtures. Taking into account these observations, the bed thickness data from the Tarcău Sandstone are best described by a lognormal mixture model with two components. Compared with the Marnoso‐Arenacea Formation, in which bed thicknesses of thin beds have a larger variability than thicknesses of the thicker beds, the thinner‐bedded population of the Tarcău Sandstone has a lower variability than the thicker‐bedded population. Such differences might reflect contrasting depositional settings, such as the difference between channel levées and basin plains.     

河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。     

Distribution of the nonlinear random ocean wave period

Because of the intrinsic difficulty in determining distributions for wave periods, previous studies on wave period distribution models have not taken nonlinearity into account and have not performed well in terms of describing and statistically analyzing the probability density distribution of ocean waves. In this study, a statistical model of random waves is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. In addition, a new nonlinear probability distribution function for the wave period is presented with the parameters of spectral density width and nonlinear wave steepness, which is more reasonable as a physical mechanism. The magnitude of wave steepness determines the intensity of the nonlinear effect, while the spectral width only changes the energy distribution. The wave steepness is found to be an important parameter in terms of not only dynamics but also statistics. The value of wave steepness reflects the degree that the wave period distribution skews from the Cauchy distribution, and it also describes the variation in the distribution function, which resembles that of the wave surface elevation distribution and wave height distribution. We found that the distribution curves skew leftward and upward as the wave steepness increases. The wave period observations for the SZFII-1 buoy, made off the coast of Weihai (37°27.6′ N, 122°15.1′ E), China, are used to verify the new distribution. The coefficient of the correlation between the new distribution and the buoy data at different spectral widths (ν=0.3−0.5) is within the range of 0.968 6 to 0.991 7. In addition, the Longuet-Higgins (1975) and Sun (1988) distributions and the new distribution presented in this work are compared. The validations and comparisons indicate that the new nonlinear probability density distribution fits the buoy measurements better than the Longuet-Higgins and Sun distributions do. We believe that adoption of the new wave period distribution would improve traditional statistical wave theory.     

Evolution and Frontogenesis of an Imbalanced Flow —the Influence of Vapor Distribution and Orographic Forcing

If the initial fields are not in geostrophic balance, the adjustment and evolution will occur in the stratified fluid, and the frontogenesis will occur under suitable conditions. The evolution is studied here with a nonhydrostatic fully compressible meso-scale model (Advanced Regional Prediction System, ARPS). Four cases are designed and compared: (i) control experiment; (ii) with different initial temperature gradient; (iii) with vapor distribution; (iv) with orographic forcing. The results show that: (1) there is an inertial oscillation in the evolution of the imbalanced flow with the frequency of the local Coriolis f, and with its amplitude de-creasing with time. The stationary balanced state can only be approached as it cannot be reached in the limit duration of time, The energy conversion ratio varies in the range of [0, 1 / 3]; (2) the stronger initial tempera-ture gradient can make the final energy conversion ratio higher, and vice versa; (3) suitable vapor distribu-tion is favorable for the frontogenesis. It will bring forward the time of the frontogenesis, strengthen the in-tensity of the cold front, and influence the final energy conversion ratio; (4) the orographic forcing has an ev-idently strengthening effect on the frontogenesis. The strengthening effect on the frontogenesis and the influ-ence on the final energy conversion ratio depend on the relative location of the mountain to the cold front.     

辽河流域人发中重金属元素分布特征

对辽河流域人发中重金属元素含量分布、分配规律研究结果表明：重金属元素尤其是铅、镉、汞、砷、铬元素，分布规律有很大相同之处，高含量数据点均围绕沈阳、锦州等重工业城市及阜新、柴河铅矿及其下游等地区分布，且城市居民平均含量明显高于乡村居民平均水平。通过进一步对典型污染区的研究发现：人发分布特征与背景环境有很大相关性，即土壤、浅层地下水、作物中重金属含量高的地区，人发中重金属含量亦较高。     

河北省褐煤资源赋存分布特征与勘查开发利用前景分析

河北省辖区内赋存、分布的褐煤资源形成于早白垩世和第三纪，但由于煤层顶底板岩石固结程度差，建井开采时井巷变形严重，维护困难，致使大量褐煤资源未得以开发利用。根据已有资料分析，褐煤含煤区地质构造条件简单、水文地质条件简单、主要呵采煤层顶板以泥岩或炭质泥岩为主，岩石致密，透气性差。褐煤本身透气性好，燃点低，没有粘结性，挥发分高．受热容易膨胀破裂，诸多因素都表明适合采用煤炭地下气化的开采方式进行开发利用，因此有必要加强我省褐煤资源的地质勘查工作和煤炭地下气化工艺的研究，为今后褐煤开发利用奠定基础。     

东南极Lambert冰川-Amery冰架系统平衡通量分布的计算

通过对Lambert冰川盆地(LGB)考察路线上约1 700 km长的LGB剖面和距冰架末端约50 km、长150 km的A剖面, 分别利用GPS冰流速值及雷达测厚值进行冰通量的计算得出:每年流过LGB剖面的冰通量为43.95 Gta-1, 而通过A剖面的冰通量仅为26. 42 Gt*a-1, Amery冰架底部净融化量为7.8 Gt*a-1. 整个Lambert冰川-Amery冰架系统(LAS)地区的表面净物质平衡总量约为90 Gt*a-1; LGB地区的表面净物质平衡总量为46 Gt*a-1. 通过分析得出, 整个LAS地区及LGB地区均处于物质正平衡状态, 而LAS流域的上游区域S'则处于物质负平衡状态.     

山东近海溶解态无机营养盐的分布特征研究

根据2006年8月、12月和2007年4月、10月山东近海海区4个航次海水中溶解无机营养盐等的调查资料,分析了该海域5种溶解无机营养盐(包括PO4-P,NO3-N,NO2-N,NH4-N,SiO3-Si)的平面分布和时空变化特征.结果表明,5种营养盐在胶州湾内出现高值,平面分布整体上呈现沿岸浓度高、外海浓度低的趋势;根据绝对限制和相对限制法则,春季和夏季P为限制因子,秋冬季营养盐结构发生变化,由缺P向缺Si转变;SiO3-Si浓度随季节变化逐渐增加,其他营养盐浓度在春季和夏季较低,秋季达到最大值.秋冬季溶解无机营养盐周日变化受潮汐影响明显.