Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa

Abstract

The increasing demand for water in southern Africa necessitates adequate quantification of current freshwater resources. Watershed models are the standard tool used to generate continuous estimates of streamflow and other hydrological variables. However, the accuracy of the results is often not quantified, and model assessment is hindered by a scarcity of historical observations. Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological estimates would increase the value and credibility of predictions. A model-independent framework aimed at achieving consistency in incorporating and analysing uncertainty within water resources estimation tools in gauged and ungauged basins is presented. Uncertainty estimation in ungauged basins is achieved via two strategies: a local approach for a priori model parameter estimation from physical catchment characteristics, and a regional approach to regionalize signatures of catchment behaviour that can be used to constrain model outputs. We compare these two sources of information in the data-scarce region of South Africa. The results show that both approaches are capable of uncertainty reduction, but that their relative values vary.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Kapangaziwiri, E., Hughes, D.A., and Wagener, T., 2012. Incorporating uncertainty in hydrological predictions for gauged and ungauged basins in southern Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (5), 1000–1019.     

Interactions among millennial-scale geomorphic processes in different parts of a drainage basin,arid China

The geomorphic evolution of different parts of the Shiyang River catchment was analyzed in this study, using Quaternary chronologies, sedimentary facies, grain size, geochemical proxies, and pollen proxies of sedimentary sections and study sites to examine millennial-scale geomorphic processes. Results indicate that during the early and middle Holocene, most sections and study sites were eroded in the upper reaches, with an average erosion rate around 0.042 cm/yr, while sediment deposition appeared in the middle reaches, at a rate of 0.091 cm/yr. At the same time, the average deposition rate was 0.062 cm/yr in the lower reaches. During the late Holocene, erosion in the upper reaches was more severe, with the rate of 0.169 cm/yr, due to the development of steep river banks. The middle reaches showed an average late-Holocene erosion rate of 0.089 cm/yr, and sediments in the lower reaches were deposited at a rate of 0.011 cm/yr. Characteristics of all proxies are well related to the changes of erosion and deposition rates; therefore, climate change is assumed to be the primary factor for geomorphic evolution at the millennia scale, and geomorphic responses of different parts of the river are understood to be connected but distinct.     

Geochemical evidence of hydrothermal recharge in Lake Baringo,central Kenya Rift Valley

Lake Baringo, a freshwater lake in the central Kenya Rift Valley, is fed by perennial and ephemeral rivers, direct rainfall, and hot springs on Ol Kokwe Island near the centre of the lake. The lake has no surface outlet, but despite high evaporation rates it maintains dilute waters by subsurface seepage through permeable sediments and faulted lavas. New geochemical analyses (major ions, trace elements) of the river, lake, and hot spring waters and the suspended sediments have been made to determine the main controls of lake water quality. The results show that evaporative concentration and the binary mixing between two end members (rivers and thermal waters) can explain the hydrochemistry of the lake waters. Two zones are recognized from water composition. The southern part of the lake near sites of perennial river inflow is weakly influenced by evaporation, has low total dissolved species (TDS), and has a seasonally variable load of mainly detrital suspended sediments. In contrast, waters of the northern part of the lake show evidence for strong evaporation (TDS of up to eight times inflow). Authigenic clay minerals and calcite may be precipitating from those more concentrated fluids. The subaerial hot‐spring waters have a distinctive chemistry and are enriched in some elements that are also present in the lake water. Comparison of the chemical composition of the inflowing surface waters and lake water shows (1) an enrichment of some species (HCO₃^?, Cl, SO₄^2?, F, Na, B, V, Cr, As, Mo, Ba and U) in the lake, (2) a depletion in SiO₂ in the lake, and (3) a possible hydrothermal origin for most F. The rare earth element distribution and the F/Cl and Na/Cl ratios give valuable information on the rate of mixing of the river and hydrothermal fluids in the lake water. Calculations imply that thermal fluids may be seeping upward locally into the lake through grid‐faulted lavas, particularly south of Ol Kokwe Island. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sedimentology and depositional architecture of a submarine delta-fan complex in the Durban Basin,South Africa

The seismic stratigraphy, evolution and depositional framework of a sheared-passive margin, the Durban Basin, of South East Africa are described. Based on single-channel 2D seismic reflection data, six seismic units (A-F) are revealed, separated by major sequence boundaries. These are compared to well logs associated with the seismic data set. Internal seismic reflector geometries and sedimentology suggest a range of depositional regimes from syn-rift to upper slope and outer shelf. Nearshore and continental facies are not preserved, with episodic shelf and slope sedimentation related to periods of tectonic-induced base level fall. The sedimentary architecture shows a change from a structurally defined shelf (shearing phase), to shallow ramp and then terminal passive margin sedimentary shelf settings. Sedimentation occurred predominantly during normal regressive conditions with the basin dominated by the progradation of a constructional submarine delta (Tugela Cone) during sea-level lowstands (LST). The earlier phases of sedimentation are tectonic-controlled, however later stages appear to be linked to global eustatic changes.     

朝鲜半岛与华北地质之对比研究:进展与问题

华北与朝鲜半岛山水相连,传统上称为中朝克拉通或中朝地块。但是中朝的地质对比研究并不深入。作者所在的研究组有幸同时与南北朝鲜半岛双方展开了合作研究达十年以上,内容涉及到前寒武纪基底、古生代沉积盆地、造山带演化、以及中生代岩浆活动。本文是对我们最新研究成果的一个简要总结,并提出一些仍未解决的或具争议的相关地质问题,希望以此能推动中朝地质和东北亚地质的研究。研究结果总结如下:(1)朝鲜半岛可划分为三个陆块,从北到南分别为狼林、京畿和岭南陆块,分别被临津江和沃川构造带分割;(2)三个陆块的前寒武纪基底虽有差别,但本文认为它们是相似的,并可与华北克拉通基底对比;(3)狼林地块的平南古生代盆地以及位于京畿陆块和岭南陆块之间的太白山古生代盆地与华北古生代盆地可对比;(4)临津江和沃川构造带的演化还有待深入研究,它们并不具有陆陆碰撞造山带的特征;(5)在京畿陆块西南部发现了含榴辉岩的三叠纪变质杂岩(洪城杂岩),其变质时代和岩石组合都可以和苏鲁造山带对比,不含超高压变质矿物。这表明苏鲁造山带东延到朝鲜半岛,并在半岛的京畿陆块西南缘登陆。但是洪城杂岩出露有限,没有穿越切割半岛的证据,因此可能沿半岛西部断裂局部分布或在半岛西缘尖灭,其空间分布需进一步研究;(6)中生代岩浆岩在朝鲜半岛广泛存在,三叠纪岩浆作用可能与印支期造山作用有关;侏罗纪和白垩纪的岩浆岩分布与华北在时代和空间分布上有所差别,晚白垩世岩浆岩在朝鲜半岛集中出露于庆尚盆地。本文还在最后一部分,提出了朝鲜半岛以及中朝对比研究中有争议的和尚需进一步研究的关键问题。     

西昆仑山古近纪隆升变形：时间、证据和争论

西昆仑山新生代隆升变形过程对于中亚的地貌与水系演化、资源和能源矿产分布、气候及环境变迁等都具有重要的影响,然而至今尚没有形成统一的认识。西昆仑山新生代初始隆升与变形的时间存在三种不同观点,分别为古新世、中—晚始新世、渐新世末期—中新世早期。本文通过对塔西南地区地层学、沉积学、物源分析和热年代学的研究综述,详细讨论了西昆仑山古新世、中—晚始新世隆升变形的时间、证据、解释和争议。在此基础上,确定了西昆仑山在古新世发生了隆升变形,中—晚始新世是新生代变形中的一个加速节点。这两期隆升变形分别对应于印度—亚洲大陆初始碰撞、新特提斯洋俯冲板片断离的远程响应,反映了印度板块向北的碰撞拼贴与持续挤压的过程。     

Observed hydrographs: on their ability to infer a time‐invariant hydrological transfer function for flow prediction in ungauged basins

Streamflow measurements provide information about the flow generation characteristics of land surfaces as well as the flow transferring nature of the channel network. In this study, such flow transferring properties of the channel network that were obtained from downstream flow observations were used for predicting flow in ungauged basins. A temporally averaged transfer function (ATF) of the channel segments of Kentucky River Basin (KRB) in Kentucky, USA, was extracted from observed hydrographs in a time‐invariant system as a function of drainage area. The ATF was regionalized through multiple regression analysis for 194 combinations of drainage areas that differ in topography, terrain, and geology. The application of ATF for flow prediction in ungauged basins was performed for Goose Creek, a subbasin of KRB by integrating ATF with the TOPMODEL. In addition, the ATF was shown to be capable of providing calibration and validation data for ungauged basins in a backward technique from a measured stream gauge downstream, with minimal data requirement of drainage area. The applicability of ATF was illustrated across a range of streamflow conditions from watersheds that varied greatly in their terrain and geology. Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of the proposed method, as a function of drainage areas of the corresponding basins, to predict daily streamflow from ungauged basins ranged from 0.83 to 0.92. The results of the study concluded that the ATF obtained from measured streamflow thus proved to be a quick and simple tool for assessment of streamflow in both operational and modeling hydrology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Causes of systematic over‐ or underestimation of low streamflows by use of index‐streamgage approaches in the United States

Low‐flow characteristics can be estimated by multiple linear regressions or the index‐streamgage approach. The latter transfers streamflow information from a hydrologically similar, continuously gaged basin (‘index streamgage’) to one with a very limited streamflow record, but often results in biased estimates. The application of the index‐streamgage approach can be generalized into three steps: (1) selection of streamflow information of interest, (2) definition of hydrologic similarity and selection of index streamgage, and (3) application of an information‐transfer approach. Here, we explore the effects of (1) the range of streamflow values, (2) the areal density of streamgages, and (3) index‐streamgage selection criteria on the bias of three information‐transfer approaches on estimates of the 7‐day, 10‐year minimum streamflow (Q_{7, 10}). The three information‐transfer approaches considered are maintenance of variance extension, base‐flow correlation, and ratio of measured to concurrent gaged streamflow (Q‐ratio invariance). Our results for 1120 streamgages throughout the United States suggest that only a small portion of the total bias in estimated streamflow values is explained by the areal density of the streamgages and the hydrologic similarity between the two basins. However, restricting the range of streamflow values used in the index‐streamgage approach reduces the bias of estimated Q_{7, 10} values substantially. Importantly, estimated Q_{7, 10} values are heavily biased when the observed Q_{7, 10} values are near zero. Results of the analysis also showed that Q_{7, 10} estimates from two of the three index‐streamgage approaches have lower root‐mean‐square error values than estimates derived from multiple regressions for the large regions considered in this study. Published in 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

甘肃河西地区2000-2019年水土资源耦合协调特征

以甘肃河西地区为研究区,采用耦合协调度模型和农业水土资源匹配系数法分别对河西五市和河西走廊三大内陆河中游地区水土耦合协调情况进行量化研究,并以此为基础通过灰色关联度法分析水土资源耦合协调度影响因素.结果表明:(1)2000-2019年,河西五市水土资源耦合协调度整体提升了 64.65％,由濒临失调转换为初级协调,呈现不...