动态数据驱动多模型耦合的滑坡稳定性分析方法

我国是一个地质灾害频发的国家,滑坡作为典型地质灾害具有时间分布上的突发性、空间分布的随机性、影响因素的复杂性的特点,受地形、地质、水文和人文因素复杂影响下的滑坡稳定性分析成为科学研究的前沿热点。传统滑坡稳定性分析基于静态的物理模型,其模型通常建立在一定的假设基础上,模型抽象,参数时变、空变,导致对滑坡稳定性分析难以满足防灾减灾的时效性、准确性需求。因此,本文提出了一种基于动态数据驱动的多模型耦合的滑坡稳定性分析方法,利用天空地一体化监测数据,建立了一套依靠动态传感数据实时驱动的地形-水文-滑坡机理耦合的滑坡稳定性分析框架,阐述了基于知识规则的监测数据智能清洗方法,数据驱动的多模态监测数据实时接入与自主加载,多模型耦合机制,监测数据与滑坡机理模型动态同化算法,从而提高了滑坡稳定性分析的时效性和准确性,变被动减灾为主动防灾。     

Preliminary Study on Direct Assimilation of Cloud-affected Satellite Microwave Brightness Temperatures

Direct assimilation of cloud-affected microwave brightness temperatures from AMSU-A into the GSI three-dimensional variational(3D-Var) assimilation system is preliminarily studied in this paper. A combination of cloud microphysics parameters retrieved by the 1D-Var algorithm(including vertical profiles of cloud liquid water content, ice water content, and rain water content) and atmospheric state parameters from objective analysis fields of an NWP model are used as background fields. Three cloud microphysics parameters(cloud liquid water content, ice water content, and rain water content) are applied to the control variable. Typhoon Halong(2014) is selected as an example. The results show that direct assimilation of cloud-affected AMSU-A observations can effectively adjust the structure of large-scale temperature, humidity and wind analysis fields due to the assimilation of more AMSU-A observations in typhoon cloudy areas, especially typhoon spiral cloud belts. These adjustments, with temperatures increasing and humidities decreasing in the movement direction of the typhoon,bring the forecasted typhoon moving direction closer to its real path. The assimilation of cloud-affected satellite microwave brightness temperatures can provide better analysis fields that are more similar to the actual situation. Furthermore, typhoon prediction accuracy is improved using these assimilation analysis fields as the initial forecast fields in NWP models.     

Land surface sensitivity of monsoon depressions formed over Bay of Bengal using improved high-resolution land state

Monsoon depressions (MDs) constitute a large fraction of the total rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon season. In this study, the impact of high-resolution land state is addressed by assessing the evolution of inland moving depressions formed over the Bay of Bengal using a mesoscale modeling system. Improved land state is generated using High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System employing Noah-MP land-surface model. Verification of soil moisture using Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and soil temperature using tower observations demonstrate promising results. Incorporating high-resolution land state yielded least root mean squared errors with higher correlation coefficient in the surface and mid tropospheric parameters. Rainfall forecasts reveal that simulations are spatially and quantitatively in accordance with observations and provide better skill scores. The improved land surface characteristics have brought about the realistic evolution of surface, mid-tropospheric parameters, vorticity and moist static energy that facilitates the accurate MDs dynamics in the model. Composite moisture budget analysis reveals that the surface evaporation is negligible compared to moisture flux convergence of water vapor, which supplies moisture into the MDs over land. The temporal relationship between rainfall and moisture convergence show high correlation, suggesting a realistic representation of land state help restructure the moisture inflow into the system through rainfall-moisture convergence feedback.     

出流边界对京津冀地区强对流局地新生及快速增强的动力效应

针对2014年7月16日发生在京津冀地区包含三次风暴过程的强对流"事件",通过雷达、探空和自动站等观测资料分析,以及基于雷达资料快速刷新四维变分同化（RR4DVar）和三维数值云模式的高分辨率模拟,研究了在京津冀复杂地形条件下导致对流风暴局地新生及快速增强的对流尺度热力和动力机制,重点分析了出流边界在对流风暴局地新生及快速增强过程中的动力效应。探空观测和模拟结果均显示,16日当天从上午到傍晚,京津冀地区存在有利于对流风暴发生、发展的中尺度环境条件,包括明显的热力不稳定、强的偏南低空急流和低层垂直风切变等。在本次强对流"事件"中,首先是东移的近地面切变线在中午12:00（北京时,下同）左右触发了天津地区多单体对流风暴的局地新生和快速加强,并产生了明显的向西北移动的出流边界。随后,在京津冀西北部山区形成的一个产生向南出流的风暴单体于下午18:00左右抵达北京西北部山边,由于地形强迫,沿山坡加速下滑的风暴出流与沿山坡上行的低层偏南暖湿气流相互作用,增强了山坡附近的低层辐合和垂直上升,同时在向南和向西北移动的出流边界"碰撞"形成的动力不稳定配合下,使得风暴单体在下山过程中迅速发展为强超级单体风暴。两条出流边界在风暴附近的"碰撞"及其和低层偏南暖湿气流的相互作用,具有复杂地形条件下导致风暴新生和加强的"三重点"关键区特征。在22:00左右,由超级单体风暴形成的出流边界抵达京津冀南部平原地区,与偏南低空急流和低层偏东风湿空气产生的辐合区相互作用,形成新的类似于"三重点"的关键区,导致在辐合区内沿出流边界出现暖湿空气的强烈上升。在出流边界的动力不稳定触发下,沿出流边界附近不断有对流单体新生和增强,最终在23:00左右形成了一条近似东西走向的线状多单体风暴系统。     

华东高海拔地区夏季气溶胶数浓度及谱分布特征

利用2014年7月黄山光明顶观测获得的气溶胶数浓度、气溶胶数谱数据,对黄山夏季气溶胶数浓度及谱分布特征进行分析,并在此基础上对气溶胶数谱进行了对数正态分布拟合。研究结果表明:黄山夏季气溶胶平均数浓度约为3 518.27 cm~(-3),主要集中在爱根核模态;气溶胶平均数浓度日变化呈双峰分布,峰值浓度的出现伴随着小粒子的增多。气溶胶数浓度与相对湿度和风速成负相关,高浓度的气溶胶多出现在较弱的东南风时;积聚模态气溶胶数浓度受风向影响显著。不同气团背景下气溶胶数谱差异集中在小于100 nm和500~1 000 nm粒径范围。爱根核模态气溶胶在高湿的西南气团影响下数浓度最低、谱较窄,而高温、低湿的东南气团对应的气溶胶数浓度最高、谱最宽,北方气团对应的气溶胶数浓度和谱宽居中;500~1 000 nm粒径范围气溶胶数谱分布特征与之相反。不同背景的气溶胶数谱和体积谱均可采用爱根模态、积聚模态1和积聚模态2三个模态进行对数正态分布拟合,但不同气团背景下的各模态谱型参数差异较大。     

集成遥感数据的陆地净初级生产力估算模型研究综述

净初级生产力(NPP)是衡量碳循环、指导土地利用、评估生态安全、指示环境变化、反映粮食安全等的重要参量,其估算受模型构建机理和生态系统关键地表参数输入的影响。近年来,随着遥感数据的不断丰富和遥感处理技术的快速发展,集成遥感数据的NPP估算模型相较于仅采用气候、土壤等传统观测数据的非遥感模型,在分析时空异质性等方面的优势日益凸显。本文基于Web of Science和CNKI两大数据库,采用文献统计分析方法,系统回顾NPP研究概况及国内外集成遥感数据的NPP估算模型的近期进展;并将集成遥感数据进行NPP估算的模型分为统计模型、光能利用率模型、过程模型及耦合模型四类;重点阐述了各类遥感估算模型的机理、差异性、适宜性及局限性;最后,在分析NPP遥感估算面临困境和科学挑战的基础上,从机理与影响因素、数据基础、参数反演、时空尺度拓展、软硬件支撑等方面对未来研究进行了展望。     

Developing empirical formulas for assessing the scour of vertical and inclined piers

Abstract

Because scour is one of the main reasons for bridge failure, this study focuses on accurately predicting the maximum scour depth around different vertical and inclined piers. Scouring is an issue of concern in the bridge design process, as most existing equations for predicting local scour near bridge piers suffer from over- or underprediction issues, resulting in higher foundation costs or bridge failure and inaccurate predictions of the scour around piers. The dimensionless maximum scour depths (y_s/D) of vertical and inclined piers were investigated for seven pier shapes with different L/D ratios and four inclination angles (θ) under shallow flow conditions. The inclined pier configuration reduced the y_s/D of the piers. The maximum y_s/D was observed for a rectangular pier with an L/D of 4.5 in both vertical and inclined configurations (θ of 10, 15 and 21°, respectively). The y_s/D was significantly decreased by increasing the angle of the pier from 10 to 30°. The y_s/D of the inclined rectangular piers decreased as θ decreased from 30 to 10° and the L/D ratio increased from 1 to 4.5. The best y_s/D results were obtained for inclined rectangular piers at a θ value of 30° and an L/D ratio of 7.5 compared to other shapes and inclination angles. New equations were developed to predict the local scour depth for circular, square and rectangular bridge piers. The equations yielded excellent results for predicting the maximum clear water scour depth around vertical and inclined piers with inclination angles of 10, 15, 21 and 30°, respectively.     

Approximate Variational Method for Ocean Data Assimilation

An approximate variational method is proposed to assimilate an oceanographic data set with a numerical ocean model. In the approximate method, the adjoint equation to a governing equation is derived and then converted to a finite difference form, in contrast to the ordinary, exact variational method which is composed of a finite difference equation adjoint to the finite difference governing equation. A cumbersome derivation of the adjoint equation is avoided, and finite difference schemes used for the original governing equation are easily utilized for the adjoint equation. This method has been verified with twin experiments. The flow field in the twin experiments is composed of dipole eddies in a two-layer quasi-geostrophic model. Initial and boundary conditions are control variables. The descent converges towards the exact field within 50 iterations, showing that the fundamental problem of the method (an unstable descent with a large number of iterations) does not appear. The approximate method is promising and should be tried with real data. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Adriatic Sea M2 and K1 tides by 3D model and data assimilation

In the present work we explore the impact of assimilating local tide-gauge and altimetric data on the quality of predicting the major Adriatic tides (M₂ and K₁). To that end we compute optimal tidal open boundary conditions for a 3D high-resolution finite-element model by using an incremental assimilation formalism. The essence of the method is the use of two dynamical models where the solution in the complex 3D high-resolution model is sought via assimilation of prediction errors into the simpler 2D model with explicit inverse. In the central numerical experiment, harmonic constants from 12 tide gauges are assimilated and the results are analysed at 31 locations, hence 19 independent ones. The data assimilation contributes to the reduction of maximum amplitude error from 5.6 to 0.5 cm for M₂ and from 3.9 to 0.1 cm for K₁. The assimilation procedure is repeated by assimilating suitably processed Topex/Poseidon altimeter data, again validating the outcome at 31 tide gauge locations. The result was very similar to the gauge-data assimilation outcome. The model output is also validated with the current data, not used in the assimilation. At two locations and at three depths the model was able to reproduce the major and the minor semi-axes of tidal ellipses, as well as their orientations very well.     

利用波能平衡方程研究波浪折射——绕射的数学模型及数值模拟

波能平衡方程是研究风浪要素及波能传播问题的很有效的方法，计算较为简单，在海洋学及海岸动力学中得到广泛的应用。本文采用考虑波能侧向传递机制和耗损制约的波能平衡方程组作为研究波浪折射——绕射变形的控制方程。对数学模型用差分法进行了数值模拟，并用两个例题进行了验证