1) I. A. H. S. / A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A simple method is used to study the response of runoff in the Sahel to climate change. The statistical characteristics of rainfall are calculated over the western part of the Sahel for the period 1961–1990, using the BADOPLU network. Daily rainfall is simulated using a Markov process with Weibull distribution for rainfall depths. Runoff is modelled using a conceptual SCS model and the curve numbers are calculated for West Africa. Climate change is provided by simulations using the Arpège GCM (Scenario A1B), and a perturbation method is used on the parameters which describe the rainfall. Changes in rainfall are assumed to occur through increases in frequency, not intensity. Using Arpège, runoff is mainly found to increase, in depth and in number of events, by the end of the 21st century. Changes in evaporation and land use are not included in the analysis. The impact of this 21st century potential climate change (rainfall) on the runoff is found to be of the same magnitude as the impact of changes in land use.     

Flood frequency analysis of southern Africa: II. Identification of regional distributions

Abstract

Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum flood data comprising 407 stations from 11 countries of southern Africa is presented. Forty-one homogeneous regions are identified. The L-moments of the observed data indicate that the possible underlying frequency distributions are Pearson type 3 (P3), lognormal 3-parameter (LN3), General Pareto (GPA) or General Extreme Value (GEV). Simulation experiments for the selection of the most suitable flood frequency procedure indicate that Pearson type 3/Probability Weighted Moments (P3/PWM) and log-Pearson type 3/Method of Moments (LP3/MOM) are suitable procedures for the region.     

Reconsidering Race,Class, and Residential Segregation in American Cities

Scholars have often discounted social class as a substantial contributor to residential segregation by race, in part as a result of using the dissimilarity index, which is likely to show high levels of uneven group distribution regardless of socioeconomic status (SES), and in part as a result of using limited categories of SES. This study expands on prior research by examining residential segregation between black-alone and white-alone households in 36 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with 2000 decennial census data, using both spatial unevenness (dissimilarity) and two types of experiential indicators (exposure indices), measuring SES across income levels and accounting for the presence of other races. Findings show that black households with higher incomes live in neighborhoods with greater exposure and lower isolation than do black households with lower incomes. Additionally, while the dissimilarity of black households decreases with income, unevenness is not as strongly connected to income as are the experiential measures. While race remains a primary determinant of residential segregation, results indicate substantial class differences.     

二塘沟水库施工控制网平面坐标系的建立和观测

通过对二塘沟水库库区地理位置的分析,得出该地区每公里变形值较大,为满足施工放样精度及业主建设水库的进场公路和下一级水库规划使用的要求,根据二塘沟现有的测绘资料,建立了二塘沟水库施工控制网平面坐标系。采用三等GPS网进行观测,通过统计测量精度,得出该测量精度高等优点。     

集合预报误差在GRAPES全球四维变分同化中的应用研究Ⅱ：参数选取与数值试验

研究的第一部分讨论了如何有效应用集合预报误差的科学方案,确定了集合预报误差在GRAPES（Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System）全球4DVar（four dimensional variational data assimilation）中应用的分析框架。在此基础上研究了针对集合预报误差实际应用于GRAPES全球4DVar,解决接近或超过100个集合样本数时高效生成的计算效率问题,以及与GRAPES全球4DVar匹配的同化关键参数确定问题。选择基于4DVar的集合资料同化方法生成集合样本,通过将第1个样本极小化迭代过程中产生的预调节信息用于其他样本极小化做预调节,将计算效率提高了2倍。通过时间错位扰动方法增加集合样本数,实现集合样本增加到3倍。对集合方差进行膨胀,并选择水平局地化相关尺度为流函数背景误差水平相关的1.4倍。通过批量数值试验方法确定背景误差与集合预报误差的权重系数,对60个集合样本当集合预报误差权重为0.7时预报效果最好。对北半球夏、冬两季各52 d的批量试验表明,对于南、北半球En4DVar （ensemble 4DVar）较4DVar的改进在冬季主要集中在700—30 hPa,而在夏季主要集中在400—150 hPa。赤道地区受季节影响较小,En4DVar对位势高度、风场与温度的改进都较为明显,且经向风场的改进最为显著。文中研发的集合预报误差在GRAPES全球4DVar中应用的方法合理可行。      

安徽铜陵地区中生代侵入岩成因及成矿意义

安徽铜陵矿集区是我国最著名的铜、金、铁产地之一,成矿与岩浆作用关系密切.本次对铜陵地区中生代侵入岩进行了系统的矿物学、岩石学和元素地球化学研究.结果表明:①本区岩浆岩主要为辉石(二长)闪长岩( SiO2≤55％)、石英(二长)闪长岩(SiO255％～65％)和花岗闪长岩(SiO2≥65％)三种岩石组合,其矿物成分主要为...     

地球重力场模型在GPS高程测量中的应用

介绍了地球重力场模型（EGM2008）及其精度,对利用EGM2008模型进行GPS高程测量这一方法进行了探讨。在试验区内采用多种方案进行数据处理,结合试验区内的已有GPS水准点资料的情况进行了分析,通过对多种方案进行比较分析,得出了利用EGM2008模型进行GPS高程测量的精度与采用水准点的大致关系,为GPS高程测量提供一种新思路。     

Improvement in Background Error Covariances Using Ensemble Forecasts for Assimilation of High-Resolution Satellite Data

Satellite data obtained over synoptic data-sparse regions such as an ocean contribute toward improving the quality of the initial state of limited-area models. Background error covariances are crucial to the proper distribution of satellite-observed information in variational data assimilation. In the NMC (National Meteorological Center) method, background error covariances are underestimated over data-sparse regions such as an ocean because of small differences between different forecast times. Thus, it is necessary to reconstruct and tune the background error covariances so as to maximize the usefulness of the satellite data for the initial state of limited-area models, especially over an ocean where there is a lack of conventional data. In this study, we attempted to estimate background error covariances so as to provide adequate error statistics for data-sparse regions by using ensemble forecasts of optimal perturbations using bred vectors. The background error covariances estimated by the ensemble method reduced the overestimation of error amplitude obtained by the NMC method. By employing an appropriate horizontal length scale to exclude spurious correlations, the ensemble method produced better results than the NMC method in the assimilation of retrieved satellite data. Because the ensemble method distributes observed information over a limited local area, it would be more useful in the analysis of high-resolution satellite data. Accordingly, the performance of forecast models can be improved over the area where the satellite data are assimilated.     

江苏省公路网络复杂性分析

利用美国研制的WRF-Var同化系统以及中国的云迹风资料,对2008年6月10日长江流域的一次暴雨过程做了三维和四维变分同化试验。试验结果表明：上述两种方案均能提高模式对大到暴雨预报的准确率,特别是四维方案在提高大暴雨的准确率方面表现更好,这是降水预报的重要方面;两个同化试验均能在一定程度上改善对要素场的预报,使用四维同化方案能够更有效地调整初始场、降低各要素场的预报误差。诊断结果表明：此次大暴雨过程是在高空低槽和低层切变线的共同作用下发生的,并有高、低空急流与之配合,具有较好的动力条件;低空的西南急流,不但为产生暴雨提供了所需的水汽输送,也为造成暴雨强对流所需的位势不稳定提供了必要的能量。     

Low induction number, ground conductivity meters: A correction procedure in the absence of magnetic effects

Ground conductivity meters, comprising a variety of coil–coil configurations, are intended to operate within the limits provided by a low induction number (LIN), electromagnetic condition. They are now routinely used across a wide range of application areas and the measured apparent conductivity data may be spatially assembled and examined/correlated alongside information obtained from many other earth science, environmental, soil and land use assessments. The theoretical behaviour of the common systems is examined in relation to both the prevailing level of subsurface conductivity and the instrument elevation. It is demonstrated that, given the inherent high level of accuracy of modern instruments, the prevailing LIN condition may require operation in environments restricted to very low (< 12 mS/m) conductivities. Beyond this limit, non-linear departures from the apparent conductivity that would be associated with a LIN condition occur and are a function of the coil configuration, the instrument height and the prevailing conductivity. Using both theory and experimental data, it is demonstrated that this has the potential to provide biased and spatially distorted measurements. A simple correction procedure that can be applied to the measured data obtained from any of the LIN instruments is developed. The correction procedure would, in the limit of a uniform subsurface, return the same (correct) conductivity, irrespective of the ground conductivity meter used, the prevailing conductivity or the measurement height.