Uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis

The character and importance of uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis drives how risk assessments are used in practice. The current interpretation of uncertainty is that, in addition to the aleatory risk which arises from presumed uncertainty in the world, it comprises the epistemic aspects of irresolution in a model or forecast, specifically model and parameter uncertainty. This is true in part but it is not all there is to uncertainty in risk analysis. The physics of hazards and of failure may be poorly understood, which goes beyond uncertainty in its conventional sense. There may be alternative scenarios of future conditions, for example non-stationarity in the environment, which cannot easily be forecast. There may also be deep uncertainties of the type associated with climate change. These are situations in which analysts do not know or do not agree on the system characterisation relating actions to consequences or on the probability distributions for key parameters. All of these facets are part of the uncertainty in risk analysis with which we must deal.     

Safety Assessment of Buried Pipeline during Pile Driving Vibration in Offshore Engineering

To assess the impact of pile driving on adjacent submarine pipelines during the reconstruction of a pier berth, the local damage model of submarine pipelines is established to explore the safety thresholds of the particle peak velocity and horizontal displacement. The results are analyzed and adjusted by the existing standards and the corresponding literatures. Then, a three-dimensional numerical model is presented to assess the feasibility of the construction of piles by the obtained safety limits, in which the nonlinear behavior of the soil and stress–seepage coupling analysis are considered. After the construction, the safety of submarine pipelines is rechecked by the measured value of the particle peak velocity and horizontal displacement. Meanwhile, the propagation law of vibration, the horizontal displacement of underground soil, and the pore pressure during pile driving are explored. The results indicate that the construction of piles of 2# mooring pier did not cause damage to adjacent submarine pipelines. However, the construction of piles of 1# mooring pier which is nearer may cause damage to submarine pipelines.     

Probabilistic stability analyses of undrained slopes by 3D random fields and finite element methods

A long slope consisting of spatially random soils is a common geographical feature. This paper examined the necessity of three-dimensional(3 D) analysis when dealing with slope with full randomness in soil properties. Although 3 D random finite element analysis can well reflect the spatial variability of soil properties, it is often time-consuming for probabilistic stability analysis. For this reason, we also examined the least advantageous(or most pessimistic) cross-section of the studied slope. The concept of"most pessimistic" refers to the minimal cross-sectional average of undrained shear strength. The selection of the most pessimistic section is achievable by simulating the undrained shear strength as a 3 D random field. Random finite element analysis results suggest that two-dimensional(2 D) plane strain analysis based the most pessimistic cross-section generally provides a more conservative result than the corresponding full 3 D analysis. The level of conservativeness is around 15% on average. This result may have engineering implications for slope design where computationally tractable 2 D analyses based on the procedure proposed in this study could ensure conservative results.     

Structural stability of gravity dams: a progressive assessment considering uncertainties in shear strength parameters

Structural sliding stability of gravity dams is generally quantified using deterministic factor of safety, FS_det. Large FS_det (e.g. 3 in normal condition), are used in existing guidelines to guard against material and load uncertainties. Some guidelines allow an arbitrary reduction in FS_det (e.g. 2) when the knowledge in strength parameters increases from material test data. Yet, those reduced FS_det are not based on a rational consideration of uncertainties. Propagation of uncertainties could be done using probabilistic analyses, such as Monte-Carlo simulations (MC) which are complex and challenging for practical use. There is thus a need to develop simplified reliability based safety assessment procedures that could rationalise the adjustment of FS_det. This paper presents a progressive analysis methodology using four safety evaluation formats of increasing complexity: (i) deterministic, (ii) semi-probabilistic (partial coefficient), (iii) reliability based Adjustable Factor of Safety (AFS), and (iv) probabilistic. Comprehensive comparisons are made for the sliding safety evaluation of a 80 m gravity dam. Results are presented in terms of sliding factors of safety, allowable water levels, and demand/capacity ratios. It is shown that the AFS formulation, using direct integration, is simple and practical to use in complement to existing dam safety guidelines before undertaking MC simulations.     

中国中东部区域TRMM降水产品降尺度研究及其时空特征分析

该研究以中国中东部区域(17°～50°N,98°～135°E)为研究范围,在前人研究基础上,根据水汽与降水之间的关系,基于MOD05水汽产品,采用偏最小二乘法,对中国中东部区域2001—2010年10 a平均TRMM3B43_V 7月降水产品进行降尺度,旨在得到空间分辨率为1 km×1 km的月降水空间分布。通过比较分析,发现该降尺度模型能大幅提高TRMM产品空间分辨率,估算结果平均相对误差为15.35%,与地面观测较接近,能体现中国中东部区域降水宏观分布趋势,且估算结果精度高于前人基于归一化植被指数(NDVI)的降尺度模型,能满足降水产品的精细化需求。     

MULTIVARIATE GEOMORPHIC ANALYSIS OF FOREST STREAMS: IMPLICATIONS FOR ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE IMPACTS ON CHANNEL CONDITION

Multivariate statistical analyses of geomorphic variables from 23 forest stream reaches in southeast Alaska result in successful discrimination between pristine streams and those disturbed by land management, specifically timber harvesting and associated road building. Results of discriminant function analysis indicate that a three-variable model discriminates 10 disturbed from 13 undisturbed reaches with 90 per cent and 92 per cent correct classification respectively. These variables are the total number of pools per reach, the ratio of mean residual pool depth to mean bankfull depth, and the ratio of critical shear stress of the median surface grain size to bankfull shear stress. The last variable can be dropped without a decrease in rate of correct classification; however, the resulting two-variable model may be less robust. Analysis of the distribution of channel units, including pool types, can also be used to discriminate disturbed from undisturbed reaches and is particularly useful for assessment of aquatic habitat condition. However, channel unit classification and inventory can be subject to considerable error and observer bias. Abundance of pool-related large woody debris is highly correlated with pool frequency and is an important factor determining channel morphology. Results of this study yield a much needed, objective, geomorphic discrimination of pristine and disturbed channel conditions, providing a reference standard for channel assessment and restoration efforts.     

地理信息系统安全设计

针对地理信息系统的安全隐患,从地理信息系统安全的结构层次分析入手,从网络安全、系统安全、数据安全和用户权限四个方面提出了解决地理信息系统安全隐患的策略。     

全球海平面变化研究新进展

综述了近10年来海平面变化研究的主要成果,分析了影响海平面变化的主要因素,探讨了海平面变化研究中存在的一些问题。结果表明：①近10年全球平均海平面上升幅度大约为2.5~3.84 mm/a,热膨胀是引起海平面上升的主因;②海平面变化具有时空分布差异——西太平洋和东印度洋地区上升最快,其值高出全球平均值的10倍以上;大西洋与太平洋30~40°N地区季节变化最明显;③将海平面季节高值时段与北半球热带气旋出现时间进行对比,发现每年8~10月份,在20~50°N的西北太平洋与北大西洋沿岸地区出现海平面最高值与热带气旋相叠加的全球危险海岸带,该地带包括中国大陆东部、日本沿海地区、美国东部海岸带、墨西哥湾地区和加勒比海地区。     

云南省鹤庆盆地2.78Ma以来的环境演化

通过构建于新沂河河漫滩上的表面流人工温地系统处理污染河水的现场中试研究表明,在CODMn和NH4 -N进水浓度分别为11．69-60．00 mg／L和1．37-20．18 mg／L时,种植千屈菜、美人蕉、香蒲、水葱4种不同植物的表面流人工湿地系统,对CODMn的平均去除效率分别为26．44％、40．12％、46．71％、28．23％,对NH4 -N的平均去除效率分别为64．27％、70．49％、66．78％、58．52％,其中香蒲和美人蕉的净化能力较强．4种植物中水葱的耐淹能力最强,在完全淹水达22 d以上时,水葱依然生长良好;千屈菜的耐淹能力最弱,在完全淹水7 d后就开始枯萎,淹水17 d后地上、地下部分全部死亡．     

高压水射流与潜水员水下作业安全研究

从高压水射流技术在水下工程中应用及高压水射流的作用效应和伤害特征着手,分析影响水下高压水射流作业安全的因素,总结各国制订高压水射流作业的安全标准规程现状,提出制订我国水下高压水射流作业安全规程若干认识和设想。