强降雨条件下土质边坡瞬态稳定性分析

基于实际降雨气象资料,设计了单峰降雨和8个不同时间间隔的双峰降雨计算方案,利用非饱和土力学理论,对边坡的瞬态稳定性进行了计算和分析,研究了水分在坡体内的运移对边坡稳定性的时间空间影响效应,同时考察了降雨入渗造成的土性渗透特性的改变。分析发现：一次降雨的影响历时约12 d,降雨后约0.5 d该类土质边坡最危险;不同时间间隔的两次降雨对边坡稳定的影响比单峰降雨的最小安全系数滞后约0.3 d～0.8 d,影响历时基本保持不变;土体物理力学性质、边坡最危险滑动面及其对应的安全系数随水分在坡体内渗透运移而变化。     

黄壁庄水库副坝塌坑Ⅳ76+1槽段安全监测

介绍了黄壁庄水库副坝塌坑Ⅳ76+1槽段进行的安全监测设计及根据此设计进行的安全监测实施,根据取得的监测资料解决了一直未能确定的主要变形地层的问题,为水库的加固施工和后期的运行安全提供了一定的依据。     

美国强对流预报主观产品现状分析

为了全面反映美国强对流预报主观产品现状,同时也为推进我国国家级强对流天气预报业务建设提供思路,通过研读相关文献、最新技术报告和专家咨询等方式,对当前美国国家级强对流天气预报业务的产品类型、制作、发布规范等最新进展进行了比较详细的分析,并对我国国家级强对流天气预报业务建设提出了初步设想。通过分析看到,美国的强对流预报业务产品,以概率分类预报为主要形式,是以预报员为主体的综合主观预报产品。现已形成了一个比较系统的短时、短期、中期预报业务产品系列。以其为参照,我国强对流预报业务发展须加强四个方面的工作:第一,强对流天气气候学分析、诊断技术的研究应用;第二,基于高时空分辨率的中尺度数值预报系统的客观产品的研发和应用,强对流分类预报方法的研制;第三,专门预报员队伍的建设;第四,科学的业务流程和高效的综合监测传输。     

江西一次大雾天气诊断分析和ECMWF集合预报产品释用

利用常规气象资料,对2013年11月15日出现在江西省北部地区的一次大雾天气过程进行了诊断分析,并利用ECMWF集合预报产品对该大雾天气过程的预报进行了解释应用。诊断结果表明,该次大雾天气过程是一次典型的辐射雾。14日傍晚到夜间,江西省北部地区转处冷高压控制,阴转晴,冷空气和地面辐射共同造成的冷却作用明显;大雾发生时的逆温层高度大约在981 hPa;1—3 m/s的风速有利于形成较厚的冷却层;地面相对湿度大,水汽充足。通过对ECMWF集合预报的气温、地面湿度、地面风速和天空总云量预报产品的释用,可以在大雾出现的前日判断出江西省西北部地区同时满足辐射雾出现4个条件(水汽、晴空辐射冷却、微风、近地层的稳定层结)的概率最大,因此出现大雾的可能性最大;江西其他地区不能同时满足4个条件,出现大雾天气的可能性很小。随着对集合预报产品的不断深入挖掘,可以进一步提高集合预报对大雾等灾害性天气的预报能力。     

Sea,freshwater or saltpans? Foraging ecology of terns to assess mercury inputs in a wetland landscape: The Ebro Delta

The Ebro catchment, the largest river basin in Spain, includes various heavily industrialized areas. Among these is the Flix site, where a chemical plant has been operating since the beginning of the 20th century. This extended operational period, together with the construction of a dam next to the factory around 1960, resulted in the accumulation of large amounts of heavily polluted sediments in the adjacent riverbed, many of which are contaminated by mercury. Pollutants from Flix are carried downstream by the Ebro River to its delta. In order to assess the transfer of mercury to the complex river estuary ecosystem, we studied the ecology of the tern community living there as these birds segregate into a range of habitats. For this purpose, first we used stable isotope analysis (SIA) (δ³⁴S, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) of eggs to determine the trophic ecology and habitat partitioning of several tern species (Common, Sandwich, Little, Gull-Billed and Whiskered Tern) breeding sympatrically, in order to link their foraging ecology with habitat types. Next we measured mercury concentrations in eggs to monitor the input of this metal into the diverse habitats. With the exception of the Little Tern, the other terns used a restricted habitat range in the Ebro Delta, as shown by C and S isotopes; the Gull-Billed and Whiskered Tern foraged in freshwater habitats, while the Common and Sandwich Tern used marine habitats. This restricted feeding behavior of the Gull-Billed and Common Tern contrasts with previous reports in other breeding sites. The Little Tern, which showed a wide range of isotopic values, was found to be an opportunistic forager but fed mainly in saltpans, a feeding habitat not reported previously for this species in this area. We found that mercury concentrations are related to foraging habitat and diet, and are unexpectedly higher in species feeding on demersal prey in marine habitats and also higher in birds feeding in saltpans than in those feeding in freshwater habitats. The mercury concentrations found in the Little and Common Tern eggs sampled in “Punta de la Banya” may be sufficiently high to endanger breeding success.     

谈钻探项目施工管理

钻探生产远离人烟、通讯不便的生产环境一直干扰人们对其进行有效的生产管理。粗放式管理、管理意识不强、管理行为不规范等现象大量存在,造成了很多重大的安全、质量事故,产生了巨大的损失。结合钻探项目生产,以项目管理理论为基础,对其进行理论分析,以探索一套适合我国地质勘探行业野外工程施工的管理模式与方法。     

磷处理粉煤灰可作农业土壤磷源

粉煤灰(简称CCP或ash)具有改良土壤,增加植物产量的功能。此外,由于它特殊的多孔结构,也可用作吸纳并承载植物养分的载体。用NaH2PO4配制成含磷0.10mol/L浓度的溶液,对采自加拿大西安大略省Sarnia地区Lambton电厂的底灰(bottomash)进行振荡浸渍处理。结果表明,振荡浸渍66h后的粉煤灰中磷含量可达784×10-6。以磷处理粉煤灰、未进行磷处理的粉煤灰和石英砂按比例混合,作为基本生长介质进行玉米种植实验,其中实验配方设计为生长介质中含磷量分别为标准含磷浓度(50×10-6)的10%、25%、50%、75%和100%。生长26、34和46d后分别与不含磷的空白配方、施加含氮-磷-钾为0-20-0标准磷肥并控制磷含量为标准浓度(50×10-6)配方进行生物产量对比。生长实验结果表明,以磷处理粉煤灰供磷的生长介质,当含磷量为标准浓度的25%至100%时,其植物生长量就比添加标准浓度磷肥的配方好。种植46d后的生物生长量统计结果显示,含磷分别为标准浓度50%、75%和100%的实验介质中,玉米杆的鲜重较施标准磷肥介质中玉米分别增长39.46%、42.73%和46.13%;玉米杆干重依次增加29.71%、13.39%和28.87%;根鲜重平均增加16.62%;根干重平均增加14.03%。上述实验结果启示,粉煤灰可以很好地吸纳承载磷养分,并持续供给植物吸收生长,如果采用吸纳磷(或其他养分)的粉煤灰改良砂质土壤将有重要意义。     

废弃海底管道拆除安全性指标体系构建与模糊评价

本文以中国埕岛油田某退役油区海底输油管道拆除工程为例,建立了海底管道拆除安全分级体系和模糊评价模型。通过现场调查和专家咨询,将管道拆除过程划分为4个阶段和11个工作步骤,并将各个步骤的安全性影响因素归纳为4个一级指标和15个二级指标。在此基础上,采用层次分析法计算各级评价指标的模糊评价权重,并依据加权平均原则分别对各级评价指标进行模糊综合评价。结果表明,在各一级指标的评价等级中,海底管道拆除的技术方案与设备选择和管道状况对拆除安全产生的影响最大,具有较高的危险隐患。该工程整体安全性级数为临界安全。     

Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of the “Belt and Road” Initiative Countries based on Virtual Water Theory

Most countries along the route of the “Belt and Road” initiative are faced with a shortage of water resources. However, successful implementation of the initiative depends on water availability to support economic and social development. We designed a water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system, assigned grades and weights to each evaluation index and calculated a water resources carrying index for the 65 countries along the route. We used virtual water theory to analyze China’s net virtual water import from key bulk agricultural products through international trade. For more than half of the countries along the route, their water resources will be unable to support the economic development that will be necessary for fulfilling the goals of the Initiative. As a country with insufficient water resources carrying capacity, China is a net virtual water importer in the virtual water trade. This virtual water trade can improve China’s water resources support capacity, and ensure China’s water and food security for the future.     

西北干旱区一次阵风锋天气过程分析

利用银川新一代天气雷达观测资料和自动站实况资料,结合本地化非静力平衡中尺度数值预报MM5模式产品,对2004年6月7日银川地区一次区域大风天气过程进行了雷达气象学和中小尺度天气学背景分析。结果表明：这次突发短时大风天气由雷暴强烈下沉气流形成阵风锋引发。阵风锋导致风速增加、气温下降、相对湿度上升。阵风锋在对流云团减弱后仍向前推进,并继续维持30 min左右。阵风锋的长度超过40 km,宽3 km,主体顶高达1 500 m。当时空气层结不稳定,有利于对流运动发展。500 hPa冷空气因重力原因下泻,并与对流垂直环流的下沉气流相结合,是导致强烈下沉气流的根本原因。阵风锋东移过程中,冷气流受下垫面加热作用增暖变性,受地表磨擦而丧失动量;到达贺兰山麓后,环境大气温度随地形升高而下降,阵风锋前后的气温达到平衡而消失。宁夏本地化非静力平衡中尺度数值预报模式对此次阵风锋过程具有较好的模拟能力。