动机、成本、风险：家长视角下研学旅游产品价值感知研究

以中小学生自然教育研学旅游作为具体情境,基于539份家长问卷数据阐释研学旅游动机与价值感知之间的关系,并通过成本感知和风险感知探讨其内在机制和边界条件。结果表明,家长感知的研学旅游动机越强烈,越容易感知到研学旅游产品所传递的价值,验证了研学旅游情境下动机对价值感知的积极影响,也形成了对动机与价值之间关系研究的理论补充。并且,这一动机除了直接作用于价值感知外,还会通过成本感知的部分中介作用影响价值感知,揭示了中国家长对于教育价值的重视会削弱其对“利失”的感知。此外,进一步验证了风险感知的积极影响,即家长感知研学旅游的不确定性水平越高,动机对价值感知的积极影响越明显,且会抑制成本感知对价值感知的负向作用,但风险感知水平达到一定高度时,其对成本感知与价值感知间的抑制作用将不显著。因此,面向需求设计打造产品,突出产品价值、加大宣传营销力度、把控活动安全、合理制定价格,获取家长群体的认同接受,将是研学旅游进一步拓展市场的重要考量。     

水对土质边坡的稳定性影响分析

首先论述了地下水对边坡稳定性的影响因素,水对土质边坡的影响作用,接着推导出了考虑水作用影响的边坡安全系数计算公式,最后指出应用动态的观点来研究边坡体内的地下水作用.     

地震安评中地震活动性的统计区域与b值

本文讨论我国现行地震安全性评价中,地震活动性研究统计区域的选择及b值计算中存在的问题,提出不一定以地震区带作为统计区域的建议。文中同时指出,累计b值的正确概念应该是无震级上限累计b值,应采用迭代回归计算。文中用实际例子说明作者的建议。     

Towards developing sediment quality assessment guidelines for aquatic systems: An Australian perspective

Sediment at the sediment‐water interface of natural and man‐made waterways forms an integral part of the ecosystem because it is affected by a continuous flux of physical, chemical and biological components between the sediment, interstitial water and the overlying water column. Aquatic sediments contain records of past and present urban and rural runoff, chemical discharges and spills. In recent years sediment quality has received increasing attention following identification of the role of sediment as both a sink for pollutants and as a contaminant source with potential impacts on the quality of receiving waters. Research has indicated that the processes leading to remobilization of contaminated sediments in upstream reaches of a waterway may, through time, exert a significant influence on water quality in the downstream reaches. This, together with the cumulative effects due to contaminant input from point and non‐point source discharges, have dramatic effects on water quality and thus on ecosystem structure and functioning.

The problems associated with elevated concentrations of many hazardous organic and inorganic compounds have resulted in the establishment of aquatic sediment quality criteria and management guidelines in many overseas countries, with the objectives being the reduction and elimination of adverse environmental effects and human health risks associated with contaminated sediments. Whereas more than 70% of the Australian population is clustered around the coastal waterways, little is known about the role of sediments as a repository of environmental pollutants and/or as a source of adverse impacts on water quality and the health of our rivers. The paucity of knowledge on the quality of aquatic sediment highlights the need for the development of coherent guidelines for sediment quality assessment and management of contaminated sites, which are consistent with Australian environmental conditions and land use features.

A comparative evaluation of sediment quality information from eight coastal rivers along the east coast of Australia, presented in this paper, indicates the possibility for establishing a framework for regional sediment quality assessment. This may be achievable by using textural and compositional attributes of bottom sediments in depositional areas to develop databases on the loading and concentration trends of nutrients and contaminants. Regional variability in sediment quality determinants are shown to reflect the influence of catchment hydrology, lithology and land use on nutrient and contaminant concentration trends. Locally, the loading and partitioning behaviour of sediment‐bound contaminants is largely controlled by the nature and the extent of interactions occurring at the sediment‐water interface within individual depositional units.

The concept of ‘Sediment Effect Zone’ is introduced to provide a compartmental approach to the characterization of aquatic sediments and depositional environments in different hydrologic zones. This approach offers a rational basis for follow‐up chemical and biological assessments to establish sediment quality standards and management guidelines. Because of the complex influences of environmental, methodological and statistical factors on defining the sediment variability, the need for implementing proper quality control measures from early stages of design of a sediment quality assessment program is highlighted.     

国家气象中心数值预报业务的进展

在最近的１５年中，国家气象中心的数值预报业务高速度发展，预报模式从北半球模式发展为全球谱模式，并配套建立了资料同化系统和用于降水预报的有限区预报模式，暴雨和台风预报模式正在研制中。目前数值预报时效已延至７天，Ｔ６３９３丙上时的预报水平已优于的数值预报产品的应用技术在不断改进，最高（低）气温下两天ＭＯＳ预报精度已接近预报员制作的综合预报结果。     

船舶气象导航随船验证

通过横流太平洋往返两个航次随船调查，研究了采用气象导航对减少燃油消耗和保证船舶安全、班期等，不但有定的经济效益，而且是一种非常有效的航运管理方法。     

Multifacetted study of a cretaceous coal with algal affinities—II. Composition of liquefaction products

Two hydrogen-rich lithobodies of highly alipathic character from a coal occurring in southwest Utah, have been studied. Bituminite (>50%), vitrinite (25–30%) and liptodetrinite (7–12%) are the principal macerals. The hexane-soluble products of hydrogenating the lithotypes at 400° with tetralin and hydrogen have been analyzed by GC-MS. Products identified include homologous series of alkylated naphthalenes, phenols, furans, cyclohexenones and hydroxy-pyridines. In the case of furans, the alkyl groups extend beyond C₃₀. Materials released by Soxhlet extraction with pyridine consist chiefly of homologous series of fatty acids and their methyl esters and of methyl alkyl ketones, which were not found in the hydrogenation products. The long alkyl chains in these substances can account for about 75% of the alkanes found in the hydrogenation products but not in the extracts. Most of the compounds mentioned in the foregoing are thought to be physically held or trapped in the coal, rather than chemically combined in its macromolecular network. Except for the fatty acids, the origins of these substances are difficult to identify.     

Pyrolysis of immature Torbanite and of the resistant biopolymer (PRB A) isolated from extant alga Botryococcus braunii. Mechanism of formation and structure of torbanite

Immature Torbanite and the resistant biopolymer (PRB A) isolated from extant B. braunii were previously compared using bulk spectroscopic methods. In the present work, analysis of 400°C pyrolysis products and pyrolysis residues provided further information on their structure and possible relationships. It appears that such polymers are based upon unbranched, saturated, cross-linked hydrocarbon chains up to C₃₁. In addition to these bridging structures, a substantial part of the alkyl chains is singly bound, as esters of unbranched, saturated or cis unsaturated, even fatty acids. These esters are sterically protected, against chemical degradations, by the network of the bioand geopolymer.Quantitative and qualitative observations derived from 400°C pyrolysis confirm that the chemical structure of PRB A and immature Torbanite are closely related. The pyrolysis residues show a similar evolution and numerous common features are noted, with respect to the nature and the distribution of the major constituents of the pyrolysates (hydrocarbons and fatty acids). Accordingly, Botryococcus provides what seems to be the first example of a close structural relationship between a biopolymer produced in large amounts by an extant alga and the geopolymer of an immature kerogen. The essential role of PRB A in Torbanite formation is ascertained. Moreover, it is found that the resistant biopolymer does not undergo important structural changes during the first stages of diagenesis. Thus, owing to steric protection, the esters of immature Torbanite show a distribution quite close to the one of PRB A esters, with exclusively even constituents and a large contribution of unsaturated acids.Recent observations pointed to the possible genesis of some algal kerogens principally by selective preservation of resistant macromolecules. Such a type of formation is clearly predominant in Torbanite, where the bulk of the fossil organic matter corresponds to a selectively preserved and weakly altered, resistant biopolymer, while incorporation of lipids into the kerogen structure during diagenesis seems to play a minor role.     

地球数字产品的空间数学基础

在分析当前地球数字产品空间数学基础局限性的基础上,将地图投影概念由传统的曲面到平面的变换扩展为曲面到曲面的变换,提出一套适合于大型GIS和地球数字产品的“地图投影”模型的实用模型,该模型的视图采用等距离切圆柱投影,度量空间是椭球面几何系统,符合计算机环境下GIS视图与度量空间分离的特性。鉴于全球多分辨率连续可视化,精密可视化量算,三维、多维地球数据统一,标准的空间定位框架和只有在统一的空间系统内全球资源、生态环境数据才能进行精确的地理分析等四个方面的需要,从地图投影进到本模型将是方向和技术趋势。