The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the relative impacts of natural processes and human activities on the hydrology of the Central Rift Valley lakes,East Africa

Significant changes have been observed in the hydrology of Central Rift Valley (CRV) lakes in Ethiopia, East Africa as a result of both natural processes and human activities during the past three decades. This study applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis) to understand the relative effects of natural processes and human activities over a sparsely gauged CRV basin. Lake storage estimates were calculated from a hydrologic model constructed without inputs from human impacts such as water abstraction and compared with satellite‐based (observed) lake storage measurements to characterize the magnitude of human‐induced impacts. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the presence of climatic trends (e.g. a decreasing or increasing trends in precipitation), while the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was used to assess the long‐term, inter‐annual climate variability within the basin. Results indicate human activities (e.g. abstraction) significantly contributed to the changes in the hydrology of the lakes, while no statistically significant climatic trend was seen in the basin, however inter‐annual natural climate variability, extreme dryness, and prolonged drought has negatively affected the lakes. The relative contributions of natural and human‐induced impacts on the lakes were quantified and evaluated by comparing hydrographs of the CRV lakes. Lake Abiyata has lost ~6.5 m in total lake height between 1985 and 2006, 70% (~4.5 m) of the loss has been attributed to human‐induced causes, whereas the remaining 30% is related to natural climate variability. The relative impact analysis utilized in this study could potentially be used to better plan and create effective water‐management practices in the basin and demonstrates the utility of this integrated methodology for similar studies assessing the relative natural and human‐induced impacts on lakes in data sparse areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) of snow‐avalanche impact ramparts in southern Norway: approaches,results and implications for landform age,dynamics and development

Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) was applied to the problem of dating the diachronous surfaces of five distal river‐bank boulder ramparts deposited by snow avalanches plunging into the Jostedøla and Sprongdøla rivers in the Jostedalsbreen region of southern Norway. Approaches to local high‐precision linear age calibration, which controlled in different ways for boulder roundness, were developed. The mean age (SHD_mean) and the maximum age (SHD_max) of surface boulders were estimated for whole ramparts, crests and distal fringes. Interpretation was further assisted by reference to R‐value distributions. SHD_mean ages (with 95% confidence intervals) ranged from 520 ± 270 years to 5375 ± 965 years, whereas SHD_max ages (expected to be exceeded by <5% of surface boulders) ranged from 675 to 9065 years. SHD ages from the Jostedøla ramparts tended to be older than those associated with the Sprongdøla, rampart crests were younger than the respective distal fringes, and use of relatively rounded boulders yielded more consistent SHD ages than angular boulders. The SHD_mean ages indicate differences in recent levels of snow‐avalanche activity between ramparts and provide insights into rampart dynamics as boulders are deposited on rampart crests and, in smaller numbers, on the distal fringes. SHD_max ages provide minimum age estimates of rampart age (i.e. the time elapsed since the ramparts began to form) and suggest that at least some of the ramparts have been developing since the early Holocene. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Polychaete/amphipod ratio as an indicator of environmental impact related to offshore oil and gas production along the Norwegian continental shelf

Benthic faunal data is regularly collected worldwide to assess the ecological quality of marine environments. Recently, there has been renewed interest in developing biological indices able to identify environmental status and potential anthropogenic impacts. In this paper we evaluate the performance of a general polychaete/amphipod ratio along the Norwegian continental shelf as an environmental indicator for offshore oil and gas impacts. Two main trends are apparent: first, a contamination gradient is discernible from where production takes place compared to stations 10,000 m away. Second, the quality of the marine environment has improved over time. These results are consistent with monitoring reports employing a combination of uni- and multi-variate statistics. Thus, we consider this ratio as a relatively simple, useful and potentially cost-effective complement to other more demanding assessment techniques. Because of its strong theoretical basis, it may also be useful for detecting ecological change as a result of other activities.     

Late Holocene vegetational history,human impact and pollen representativity variations in northern Cumbria,England

The comparison of pollen diagrams and their inferred vegetational histories are an important component of palaeoecological research. Radiocarbon-dated pollen profiles from three cores taken from two adjacent mires located in northern Cumbria, Bolton Fell Moss and Walton Moss, have been used to reconstruct the Late Holocene vegetation history between the Bronze Age and the present day. The profiles have been interpreted in the light of available archaeological and historical records and, although the pollen records are broadly similar, there are some notable differences between them, particularly during Iron Age and medieval times. Dissimilarities between the diagrams are explored numerically, and the statistical and palynological results are discussed in relation to pollen representativity. The results suggest that it may be advantageous to construct more than one pollen diagram from a mire, or even adjacent mires, as extra-local pollen may be a more important part of the pollen rain than previously envisaged. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Model study of the relationship between sediment yield and river basin area

The SHETRAN physically based, spatially distributed model is used to investigate the scaling relationship linking specific sediment yield to river basin area, for two contrasting topographies of upland and more homogeneous terrain and as a function of sediment source, land use and rainfall distribution. Modelling enables the effects of the controls to be examined on a systematic basis, while avoiding the difficulties associated with the use of field data (which include limited data, lack of measurements for nested basins and inability to isolate the effects of individual controls). Conventionally sediment yield is held to decrease as basin area increases, as the river network becomes more remote from the headwater sediment sources (an inverse relationship). However, recent studies have reported the opposite variation, depending on the river basin characteristics. The simulation results are consistent with these studies. If the sediment is supplied solely from hillslope erosion (no channel bank erosion) then, with uniform land use, sediment yield either decreases or is constant as area increases. The downstream decrease is accentuated if rainfall (and thence erosion) is higher in the headwaters than at lower elevations. Introducing a non‐uniform land use (e.g. forest at higher elevations, wheat at lower elevations) can reverse the trend, so that sediment yield increases downstream. If the sediment is supplied solely from bank erosion (no hillslope erosion), the sediment yield increases downstream for all conditions. The sediment yield/basin area relationship can thus be inverse or direct, depending on basin characteristics. There still remains, therefore, considerable scope for defining a universal scaling law for sediment yield. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Physical mechanisms of man-made influences on the magnetosphere

Since the discovery of the Luxembourg effect in the 1930s, it is clear that man-made activities can perturb the ionosphere and the magnetosphere. The anthropogenic effects are mainly due to different kinds of waves coming from the Earth's surface. Acoustic-gravity waves are generated by large explosions, spacecraft launches, or flight of supersonic planes. Electromagnetic waves are active in different frequency ranges. Power line harmonic radiation which is radiated in the ELF range by electrical power systems can be observed over industrial areas. At VLF and HF, the ground-based transmitters used for communications or radio-navigation heat the ionosphere and change the natural parameters. A large variety of phenomena is observed: wave-particle interaction, precipitation of radiation belt electrons, parametric coupling of EM whistler waves, triggered emissions, frequency shift, and whistler spectrum broadening. This paper will review the different physical mechanisms which are relevant to such perturbations. The possibility of direct chemical pollution in the ionosphere due to gas releases is also discussed.     

Hydrocarbons in surface sediments from the Changjiang (Yangtze River) Estuary, East China Sea

Sedimentary aliphatic (AH) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were studied in the Changjiang Estuary and the adjacent East China Sea. Total AH ranged from 2.20 to 11.82 μg g⁻¹ and consisted of n-alkanes and a dominant petroleum-related unresolved complex mixture (UCM). Within the n-alkanes, terrestrial plant wax compounds prevailed at nearly all stations. Of the PAHs, biogenic perylene dominated at stations receiving riverine inputs. Anthropogenic PAHs originating from combustion/pyrolysis processes varied from 17 to 157 ng g⁻¹, while fossil PAH concentrations ranged from 42 to 187 ng g⁻¹. Both biogenic and anthropogenic hydrocarbons are primarily derived from riverine discharges and accumulate at shallow-water stations. Distinct phase associations lead, nevertheless, to different sedimentation patterns. Fossil PAHs are enhanced at offshore stations where they are introduced directly by shipping activities. Biomarker fingerprints ascribe their source to Chinese crude oils. The overall levels of anthropogenic hydrocarbons are low compared to relevant areas worldwide and reveal a low/moderate level of hydrocarbon pollution.     

太阳黑子活动周期对中国大陆西部不同震级段地震的影响探讨与分析

用快速富里叶变换(FFT)计算得出太阳黑子有11 a、51 a、103 a的优势周期,通过太阳黑子的活跃周期与中国大陆西部(E108°以西)不同震级段地震的活跃周期进行了对比研究,发现M.6.5以上地震受太阳黑子的影响相对弱一些,其平均周期为2.7a;而Ms5.0～6.5受太阳黑子的影响可能相对强一些,其平均周期为11.4 a.分析认为Ms≥6.5地震地周期与太阳黑活跃周期存在倍数关系,Ms5.0～6.5的周期与太阳黑子活跃周期比较相近,计算得出1950年以来地震波能量释放与太阳黑子周期有一定关系,总体表明太阳黑子活动对不同震级地震均有一定影响,但对中强地震的影响要更明显一些.