Predicting ground-motion variations at the Turkey-flat test site,California

Results of a single group participating in an international experiment are analyzed. The experiment served to verify computational predictions of the ground-motion variations due to near-surface geological effects at a site established for that purpose by the California Department of Conservation. Based on an acceleration record at a rock location, and geotechnical model of medium, records at the other locations of a nearby sedimentary deposit were predicted. A 2-D finite-difference sensitivity analysis suggested that the lateral wave-propagation effects are negligibly small, and locally 1-D computations are sufficient for the present site. Those computations are compared with observations not available to the authors during the blind prediction. Peak accelerations, peak velocities and RMS accelerations were predicted with errors less than 159%, 114% and 62%, respectively. Maxima of the response spectra were fitted within a factor of 2. The predicted and observed Husid's plots (i.e., the normalized cumulative plots of the acceleration squared) have the correlation coefficients 0.98. The detected misfits do not show any simple relation to the instrument location, component, frequency, or time.     

Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.     

Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

无机盐类对天然矿物低温催化混合酯生烃反应的影响

脂肪酸酯是一类重要的生烃母质。选择了十四烷酸甲酯、十六烷酸甲酯和十八烷酸甲酯的混合酯为模型反应物,以方解石、白云石、伊利石、钙蒙脱石和黄铁矿为催化剂,分别考察了氯化钾、氯化镁、氯化钠、硫酸钠以及混合盐对天然矿物低温催化混合酯生烃反应的影响。结果表明,无机盐类对矿物催化下混合酯的生烃反应均有不同程度的影响,硫酸钠具有反催化作用,其它盐类具有正催化作用。且在各无机盐存在下,不同的矿物表现出不同的催化活性。     

Effects of suction-dredging for cockles on non-target fauna in the Wadden Sea

Suction dredging for cockles removes large cockles from tidal flats and may also cause mortality of non-target fauna and make the habitat less suitable for some species. This study examines whether suction dredging for cockles on tidal flats of the Dutch Wadden Sea had affected densities of non-target fauna, directly after fishing and one year later. Densities of non-target fauna in two randomly chosen undredged locations were compared to densities at the surrounding heavily commercially dredged area. A significant negative effect of cockle dredging on densities of 0-group Macoma balthica was observed and this effect persisted one year after dredging. The dredged area appeared to be less suitable for settlement of mussels Mytilus edulis. No significant effects of dredging on the mudsnail Hydrobia ulvae and on 0 and 1-group C. edule were found. For the mobile young Macoma balthica it seems unlikely that the effect found after one year was still due to the mortality caused by dredging and this suggests that the habitat was less suitable as a consequence of dredging. Thus, even in the highly dynamic ecosystem of the Wadden Sea, effects of bottom disturbance by cockle dredging may persist after one year.     

Non-local impact of large-scale engineering in harbors and gulfs on the environment

A system of numerical tools to predict the non-local long-term impact of large-scale constructions on the environment is described. The predictions have to be results of successive examination of free water oscillations, turbulent boundary layers on the sea bottom, and turbulent pulsation effects on sediment transport. Numerical results related to free water oscillations in diverse gulfs are shown, and non-local effects of the dam construction are found for an example of the Baltic Sea. Feasibility of suggested tools for turbulent flow is manifested.     

Roles of Continental Shelves and Marginal Seas in the Biogeochemical Cycles of the North Pacific Ocean

Most marginal seas in the North Pacific are fed by nutrients supported mainly by upwelling and many are undersaturated with respect to atmospheric CO₂ in the surface water mainly as a result of the biological pump and winter cooling. These seas absorb CO₂ at an average rate of 1.1 ± 0.3 mol C m⁻²yr⁻¹ but release N₂/N₂O at an average rate of 0.07 ± 0.03 mol N m⁻²yr⁻¹. Most of primary production, however, is regenerated on the shelves, and only less than 15% is transported to the open oceans as dissolved and particulate organic carbon (POC) with a small amount of POC deposited in the sediments. It is estimated that seawater in the marginal seas in the North Pacific alone may have taken up 1.6 ± 0.3 Gt (10¹⁵ g) of excess carbon, including 0.21 ± 0.05 Gt for the Bering Sea, 0.18 ± 0.08 Gt for the Okhotsk Sea; 0.31 ± 0.05 Gt for the Japan/East Sea; 0.07 ± 0.02 Gt for the East China and Yellow Seas; 0.80 ± 0.15 Gt for the South China Sea; and 0.015 ± 0.005 Gt for the Gulf of California. More importantly, high latitude marginal seas such as the Bering and Okhotsk Seas may act as conveyer belts in exporting 0.1 ± 0.08 Gt C anthropogenic, excess CO₂ into the North Pacific Intermediate Water per year. The upward migration of calcite and aragonite saturation horizons due to the penetration of excess CO₂ may also make the shelf deposits on the Bering and Okhotsk Seas more susceptible to dissolution, which would then neutralize excess CO₂ in the near future. Further, because most nutrients come from upwelling, increased water consumption on land and damming of major rivers may reduce freshwater output and the buoyancy effect on the shelves. As a result, upwelling, nutrient input and biological productivity may all be reduced in the future. As a final note, the Japan/East Sea has started to show responses to global warming. Warmer surface layer has reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich subsurface water, resulting in a decline of spring phytoplankton biomass. Less bottom water formation because of less winter cooling may lead to the disappearance of the bottom water as early as 2040. Or else, an anoxic condition may form as early as 2200 AD. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.