ON THE PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL AND INFLUENCE ON SOUTHERN CHINA USING MONTHLY OLR ANOMALIES FOR PRIME SUMMER

With the OLR data,the landfall and activity of tropical cyclones(TC) in southern China over a 20-year period(1975～1994) are studied.The result shows that the variation of the monthly anomalous OLR is somewhat teleconnected with the TC activity in southern China.The former is used to predict short-term climate for the latter over months with frequent or no TC influence.To some externt,the relationship between the TC activity in southern China and the monthly mean OLR anomalies is dependent on the climatological location of the subtropical high in northwestern Pacific region.     

桂中1井井中化探指标的异常特征和指示意义

井中化探作为一种新的油气监测和早期盆地勘查评价的地球化学技术越来越引起人们的关注,文章优选了酸解烃（SC1-SC4）、热释烃（RC1-RC4）、二维荧光（FL327、FL327、FL399）、后生碳酸盐（△C）和热释汞（Hg）等作为评价指标,通过对桂中1井各种化探指标的异常特征分析,表明区内存在油气生成潜力,并指出了其主要生油气层段和储油气层段。     

礼县上坝低缓金异常的特殊查证方法

介绍了礼县上坝化探低缓金异常特征、地质背景、地球化学景观及工作方法,金区域化探异常呈低缓式样出现的主要原因,是由于本区第四系厚度大、地表径流发育等微景观特征所致。遵循常规的工作程序是实现低缓异常找矿突破的有效途径,Ⅲ级查证中加大水系沉积物采样密度、Ⅱ级查证中加大土壤样采样深度至50 cm以上及加大探槽开挖深度,是实现低缓金异常找矿突破的有效方法。     

北京地区城市热岛强度变化对区域温度序列的影响

通过对北京地区20个台站1961~2000年月平均温度资料的对比分析,证实热岛效应对城市气象站记录的地表平均气温的绝对影响随时间显著增大,近20 a尤为突出,但其相对影响即热岛增温对全部增暖的贡献却呈下降趋势。近40 a来,北京地区的国家基本、基准站平均温度距平序列与被认为不受城市热岛影响的郊区站平均温度距平序列差异明显,由于热岛效应加强因素引起的国家基本、基准站平均年温度变化速率为0.16℃/(10 a),对整个时期全部增温的贡献达到71%;近20 a来热岛效应加强因素使北京地区国家基本、基准站年平均温度每10 a增暖0.33℃,对该时期全部增温的贡献达到49%。城市热岛效应加强因素对国家基本、基准站季节平均温度上升的贡献在夏、秋季高,冬季最小。本文的结果说明,目前根据国家基本、基准站资料建立的全国或较大区域平均温度序列可能在很大程度上保留着城市化的影响,有必要做进一步的检验和订正。     

Geochemical Indications of Possible Gas Hydrates in the Northeastern South China Sea

Gas hydrate, mainly composed of hydrocarbon gas and water, is considered to be a clean energy in the 21st century. Many indicators such as BSRs （Bottom-Simulating Reflections）, which are thought to be related to gas hydrate, are found in the South China Sea （SCS） in recent years. The northeastern part of the SCS is taken as one of the most potentials in the area by many scientists. It is situated in the conjunction of the northern divergent continental margin and the eastern convergent island margin, whose geological settings are much preferable for gas hydrate to occur. Through this study, brightness temperature anomalies recorded by satellite-based thermal infrared remotely sensed images before or within the imminent earthquake, the high content of hydrocarbon gas acid-degassed from subsurface sediment and the high radioactive thermoluminescence value of subsurface sediment were found in the region. Sometimes brightness temperature anomalies alone exist in the surrounding of the Dongsha Islands. The highest content of hydrocarbon gas amounts to 393 μL methane per kilogram sediment and the highest radioactive thermoluminescence value is 31752 unit; their geometric averages are 60.5 μL/kg and 2688.9 unit respectively. What is more inspiring is that there are three sites where the methane contents are up to 243, 268 and 359μL/kg and their radioactive thermoluminescence values are 8430, 9537 and 20826 unit respectively. These three locations are just in the vicinity of one of the highest confident BSRs identified by predecessors. Meanwhile, the anomalies are generally coincident with other results such as headspace gas anomaly in the sediment and chloride anomaly in the interstitial water in the site 1146 of Leg 184. The above-mentioned anomalies are most possibly to indicate the occurrence of gas hydrate in the northeastern SCS.     

辽宁汛期降水异常的环流因子分析

在分析辽宁汛期降水的气候特征基础上,着重对影响辽宁汛期降水的环流特征进行了分析,结果表明:(1)近44年辽宁汛期降水呈下降趋势并出现显著的年际、年代际变化特征。(2)辽宁汛期水汽来源于西南夏季风和我国东部海域,汛期降水异常与低空的西南、东南夏季风、中空的极涡、西风槽、西太平洋副热带高压活动及高空的南亚高压关系密切。     

地球动力、构造发展和未来

从全球大地构造力学几何分析和天体演化学研究得知,地球的原始形态是卵形体,因此在向圆球体发展中必然产生两极挤压力成为总应力场。于是形成经向大洋的裂口和纬向褶皱,并出现了构造运动旋回。在此两极挤压中也诱发了岩浆活动和成矿,地震也由此而来。地球在现阶段趋向稳定,人类不必担心将有剧烈地壳构造运动,要爱护地球,节省资源,致力于环境和发展,为后代造福。