Surface Temperature Changes Projected by FGOALS Models under Low Warming Scenarios in CMIP5 and CMIP6

To meet the low warming targets proposed in the 2015 Paris Agreement,substantial reduction in carbon emissions is needed in the future.It is important to know how surface climates respond under low warming targets.The present study investigates the surface temperature changes under the low-forcing scenario of Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP2.6)and its updated version(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,SSP1-2.6)by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System(FGOALS)models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6,respectively).In both scenarios,radiative forcing(RF)first increases to a peak of 3 W m^?2 around 2045 and then decreases to 2.6 W m^?2 by 2100.Global mean surface air temperature rises in all FGOALS models when RF increases(RF increasing stage)and declines or holds nearly constant when RF decreases(RF decreasing stage).The surface temperature change is distinct in its sign and magnitude between the RF increasing and decreasing stages over the land,Arctic,North Atlantic subpolar region,and Southern Ocean.Besides,the regional surface temperature change pattern displays pronounced model-to-model spread during both the RF increasing and decreasing stages,mainly due to large intermodel differences in climatological surface temperature,ice-albedo feedback,natural variability,and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation change.The pattern of tropical precipitation change is generally anchored by the spatial variations of relative surface temperature change(deviations from the tropical mean value)in the FGOALS models.Moreover,the projected changes in the updated FGOALS models are closer to the multi-model ensemble mean results than their predecessors,suggesting that there are noticeable improvements in the future projections of FGOALS models from CMIP5 to CMIP6.     

Scattering of plane P waves by a semi-cylindrical hill： analytical solution

An analytical solution for scattering of plane P waves by a semi-cylindrical hill was derived by using the wave function expansion method, and convergence of the solution and accuracy of truncation were verified. The effect of incident frequency and incident angle on the surface motion of the hill was discussed, and it was shown that a hill greatly amplifies incident plane P waves, and maximum horizontal displacement amplitudes appear mostly at the inclined incidence of waves, which are located at the half-space; and maximum vertical displacement amplitudes emerge mostly at the vertical incidence of waves, which are situated at the hill.     

The 1986 Dharamsala earthquake of Himachal Himalaya – estimates of source parameters,average intrinsic attenuation and site amplification functions

The 26th April 1986 Dharamsala earthquake (m_b 5.5) occurred in the Kangra region of Himachal Himalaya, which lies in the rupture zone of great Kangra earthquake of 1905. This was the first moderate sized earthquake to be recorded at a few sites of the strong ground motion array in the NW Himalaya. The accelerograms of this earthquake have been used to estimate its source parameters, site amplification functions and to estimate the effective shear wave attenuation factor Q_β in the frontal region of Himachal Himalaya. A double couple fault plane solution for the earthquake has been obtained based on the spectra of the transverse component of the accelerograms. The estimated values of the source parameters are seismic moment: 2.1×10²⁴ dyne-cm, static stress drop (Δσ): 36 bars, source radius (r): 2.8 km and moment magnitude (M_w): 5.4. The estimated average values of effective shear wave attenuation factor Q_β for various sites are in the range of 125 to 300 with an overall spatial average of 239. The influence of local site effects on the observed PGA values have been examined on the basis of site amplification functions.     

Spatial coherence of seismic wave fields across an alluvial valley (weak motion)

The loss of coherence of seismic waves, even over small distances, can become significant and consequently important for engineering applications. This coherence loss depends on several parameters (frequency, inter-station distance), but their dependencies are not well understood yet. We show the results of a detailed analysis of the spatial variability of the coherence between two signals. This analysis is based on a simple model which is an exponential function of inter-station distance and frequency. Data from a temporary network of 36 weak-motion instruments installed at the EURO-SEISTEST site, north-east of Thessaloniki (Greece), is used in this work. The data offers the unique possibility to study the loss of coherence over a wide range of distances, as the inter-station distances are between 8 m and 5488 m. We test the influence on the coherence of the length of the time-window of the signals, of the type of the waves present in the time-window and of the common energy of the signals. We also show that, at least at this particular site, the loss of coherence with distance is probably marked by a "cross over" distance, distinguishing two different ranges: one for inter-station distances up to 100 m and the other above 100 m. Finally, we find that the coherence determined from noise recordings behaves in a rather similar way to the one determined from coda-waves and more stationary (longer) signals. Therefore, noise can be useful for a rough, but quick estimation of the loss of coherence, at least for inter-station distances larger than 100 m.     

The socio-environmental data explorer (SEDE): a social media–enhanced decision support system to explore risk perception to hazard events

ABSTRACT

Social media are increasingly recognized as a useful data source for understanding social response to hazard events in real time and in post-event analysis. This article establishes social media–enhanced decision support systems (SME-DSS) as a synergistic integration of social media and decision support systems (DSSs) to provide structured access to native, near real-time data from a large and diverse population to assess social response to social, environmental, and technological risk and hazard events. We introduce a prototype SME-DSS entitled socio-environmental data explorer (SEDE) to explore the opportunities and challenges of leveraging social media for decision support. We use a winter storm during 25–28 January 2015 that accumulated record amounts of snow along the East Coast of the United States as a case study to evaluate SEDE in helping assess social response to environmental risk and hazard events as well as evaluate social media as a theoretical component within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF) that serves as a theoretical foundation for SME-DSS.     

Three‐dimensional to two‐dimensional cross‐strata transition in the lower Pleistocene Catanzaro tidal strait transgressive succession (southern Italy)

Sandstone tidal cross‐strata are the predominant sedimentary feature of strait‐fill stratigraphic successions. However, although widely described in numerous studies, tidal strait‐fill two‐dimensional and three‐dimensional cross‐strata have rarely been reported to occur in discrete intervals which are laterally adjacent or vertically stacked, and the meaning of this stratigraphic architecture has not yet been fully investigated. Understanding of the processes responsible for changes in the internal features of modern and ancient tidal bedforms is essential in order to predict lateral and vertical heterogeneities in analogous reservoir strata. This facies‐based study aims to interpret the three‐dimensional to two‐dimensional cross‐strata transition observed in the lower Pleistocene mixed siliciclastic/bioclastic sandstone filling the Catanzaro Strait, in southern Italy, during a continuous phase of tectonically driven marine transgression. Tidal cross‐strata disappear in the uppermost interval of the studied succession, where mudstone strata prevail. This stratigraphic trend is interpreted as the evidence of an important change in the tidal strait hydrodynamics due to a phase of relative sea‐level rise. At the beginning of the transgression, three‐dimensional tidal dunes migrated throughout the ca 3 to 4 km wide and ca 30 km long, WNW–ESE‐oriented Catanzaro Strait, due to strong tidal currents amplified through the seaway and flowing in semi‐diurnal phase opposition. As the intermediate phase of transgression enlarged the seaway width, the tidal current strength decreased as tidal water exchange occurred over a larger cross‐sectional area. The progressive reduction of the bed shear stress modified three‐dimensional tidal dunes into an extensive two‐dimensional bedform field. At the end of the transgression, the further widening of the Catanzaro Strait into a ca 10 to 12 km wide marine passageway changed the tidally dominated strait into a non‐tidal open shelf. The results of this research suggest the presence of a ‘critical cross‐sectional area’ in the narrowest strait‐centre zone which controls the activation and deactivation of tidal current amplification along a marine seaway.     

基于PCR和TOF-MS海洋源产脂肽芽孢杆菌筛选

【目的】准确高效分离红树林等海洋环境中产脂肽芽孢杆菌。【方法】将前期从红树林环境筛出具有抗菌活性的12株芽孢菌株作为研究菌株,采用溶血活性及排油作用对其中的可能产脂肽菌株进行初步筛选,并基于脂肽合成酶基因PCR扩增法对脂肽合成酶基因携带菌复筛,采用飞行时间质谱(TOF-MS)对所产脂肽进行鉴定。【结果】初步发现6株芽孢杆菌具有溶血活性,其中HY-5、HY-4和HN-9这3株具有排油能力,油层透明圈的直径分别为45、32和3 mm。PCR扩增检测到HY-5含有iturin、surfactin和bacillomycin D合成酶基因,HY-4含有iturin、surfactin合成酶基因,HN-9含有iturin合成酶基因。TOF-MS检测到HY-5和HY-4的发酵液含surfactin、iturin和bacillomycin 3种脂肽,HN-9的发酵液只含iturin。【结论】基于PCR与TOF-MS为核心的级联技术,建立一种海洋源脂肽产生菌快速筛选以及脂肽谱快速鉴定的方法,解决海洋源芽孢杆菌在常规培养基难合成脂肽造成的漏筛情况。     

“碧利斯”暴雨增幅高分辨率数值模拟及诊断分析

利用中尺度非静力数值模式ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System),对2006年第4号强热带风暴“碧利斯”的登陆过程,尤其是登陆后的暴雨增幅过程开展了高分辨率数值模拟,并利用观测资料对模拟结果进行了验证,进一步基于该高分辨率模拟资料对该暴雨增幅过程开展了诊断分析.结果表明,ARPS模式较好地模拟再现了“碧利斯”的登陆过程以及登陆后在广东、江西、湖南三省交界处引发的暴雨增幅过程;散度垂直通量和湿位涡的大值区与暴雨增幅地区均有良好的对应关系,对强降水落区有较好指示意义,其中散度垂直通量的对应关系更好.湿位涡不仅很好地反映了与暴雨增幅相关的湿位涡分布,同时也很好地反映了“碧利斯”环流本身所对应的湿位涡分布特征.     

SH波垂直入射下的斜坡地形放大因子分析

现有大量观测记录表明:斜坡地形对地震波的传播有着非常强烈的影响。为服务于工程抗震设计,基于显式有限元方法,定量分析SH波垂直入射下二维斜坡地形的地震动响应与斜坡角度、土层厚度以及介质阻抗比的关系,总结了位于一维土层基本频率附近斜坡上台面各区域放大因子的变化规律。研究表明:（1）斜坡面对SH波的反射使二维斜坡地形的放大倍数较一维土层存在显著放大,且该现象在缓坡中更加明显。（2）当土层厚度为斜坡高度的1/4,介质阻抗比为0.368,坡度为30°时,放大因子在距坡顶1.67倍斜坡高度处取到最大值1.930。（3）斜坡覆盖土层薄时,放大因子受斜坡角度的影响大,斜坡覆盖土层厚时,阻抗比成为影响放大因子的主要因素。（4）分别考虑土层厚度、斜坡角度、介质阻抗比以及观测点位置对二维斜坡地形地表地震动响应的影响,取1倍斜坡高度作为区域间隔,统计每个区域内各参数对应的放大因子最大值,对比现有规范给出工程抗震设计参考值及放大因子大于1的基频比范围。