A computational workflow for rupture‐to‐structural‐response simulation and its application to Istanbul

Scenario‐based earthquake simulations at regional scales hold the promise in advancing the state‐of‐the‐art in seismic risk assessment studies. In this study, a computational workflow is presented that combines (i) a broadband Green's function‐based fault‐rupture and ground motion simulation—herein carried out using the “UCSB (University of California at Santa Barbara) method”, (ii) a three‐dimensional physics‐based regional‐scale wave propagation simulation that is resolved at  Hz, and (iii) a local soil‐foundation‐structure finite element analysis model. These models are interfaced with each other using the domain reduction method. The innermost local model—implemented in ABAQUS—is additionally enveloped with perfectly matched layer boundaries that absorb outbound waves scattered by the structures contained within it. The intermediate wave propagation simulation is carried out using Hercules , which is an explicit time‐stepping finite element code that is developed and licensed by the CMU‐QUAKE group. The devised workflow is applied to a  km region on the European side of Istanbul, which was modeled using detailed soil stratigraphy data and realistic fault rupture properties, which are available from prior microzonation surveys and earthquake scenario studies. The innermost local model comprises a chevron‐braced steel frame building supported by a shallow foundation slab, which, in turn, rests atop a three‐dimensional soil domain. To demonstrate the utility of the workflow, results obtained using various simplified soil‐structure interaction analysis techniques are compared with those from the detailed direct model. While the aforementioned demonstration has a limited scope, the devised workflow can be used in a multitude of ways, for example, to examine the effects of shallow‐layer soil nonlinearities and surface topography, to devise site‐ and structure‐specific seismic fragilities, and for calibrating regional loss models, to name a few.     

Evaluation of rainfall–runoff model performance under non-stationary hydroclimatic conditions

ABSTRACT

Understanding of rainfall–runoff model performance under non-stationary hydroclimatic conditions is limited. This study compared lumped (IHACRES), semi-distributed (HEC-HMS) and fully-distributed (SWATgrid) hydrological models to determine which most realistically simulates runoff in catchments where non-stationarity in rainfall–runoff relationships exists. The models were calibrated and validated under different hydroclimatic conditions (Average, Wet and Dry) for two heterogeneous catchments in southeast Australia (SEA). SWATgrid realistically simulates runoff in the smaller catchment under most hydroclimatic conditions but fails when the model is calibrated in Dry conditions and validated in Wet. All three models perform poorly in the larger catchment irrespective of hydroclimatic conditions. This highlights the need for more research aimed at improving the ability of hydrological models to realistically incorporate the physical processes causing non-stationarity in rainfall–runoff relationships. Although the study is focussed on SEA, the insights gained are useful for all regions which experience large hydroclimatic variability and multi-year/decadal droughts.     

Sensitivity of seismic structural response to interpretation of soils data

This paper investigates the sensitivity of the predicted seismic response of buildings in a PWR nuclear power station to the potential changes in the techniques and methods of interpreting soil data that have occurred over the last decade. The investigation is based on the soil-structure interaction (SSI) response of a typical PWR reactor building on a soft site during a seismic event. The current techniques and methods of interpretation of soils data tend to lead to a stiffer site with lower soil material damping than the earlier techniques. This leads to an increase in the SSI natural frequencies of typical buildings and an increase in its seismic response. This increase in the seismic response could put into question any seismic design based on seismic loads derived using the previously accepted generic soil data. The paper concludes with a recommendation for further consideration of the proposed departure from the previously accepted soil data.     

THE MEANDER OF KUROSHIO AND OSCILLATION IN A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL*

A numerical experiment of an asynchronous coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been described in this paper.A two-layer global atmosphere general circulation model(OSU/IAP-AGCM)and a two-layer North Pacific Ocean general circulation model(NPOGCM) developed by Liu et al.(1992)are used in numerical experiment.The sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) corresponding to the meander of the Kuroshio is treated as the initial perturbation in the Pacific Ocean and the abnormal phenomena caused by the disturbance and the interaction between atmosphere and ocean,have been studied.The numerical experiment showed that the SST anomaly in the North Pacific could induce a new 30-60 day osciltation through the coupling between atmosphere and ocean and the interaction between the meander of the Kuroshio and atmosphere circulation is a positive feedback process.     

Low-frequency variability in atmospheric middle latitudes

A short review of research trends in the study of low-frequency mid-latitude variations is presented. Theoretical developments have been concentrated upon with the major themes of multiple equilibria, flow stability and eddy-mean flow interaction reflecting the authors main interests. A new interpretation of the role of transient eddies in maintaining atmospheric blocking is also suggested in which eddy potential vorticity fluxes are considered to mediate a downstream transition between a zonal and a steady free Rossby wave flow. This treatment avoids emphasizing local balances and fluxes by the transients which are often entirely or partially reversible. The consequences of this interpretation are explored in the barotropic model of blocking first presented by Shutts (1983). This interpretation is used to suggest conditions in which the jetstream may be unlikely to undergo transition to a blocked weather regime.     

The stress field variation caused by faulting and the prediction for seismic risk

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Incoherent internal tidal currents in the deep ocean

Eleven months current meter observations from the deep Bay of Biscay were examined for the residual (incoherent internal tidal; icIT) signal, left after harmonic analysis using eight tidal constituents (large-scale barotropic or coherent baroclinic signal) within the semidiurnal band. This residual signal comprised 30% of the total tidal kinetic energy and, due to its flat spectral appearance, it was responsible for typically 5–7 days intermittency. Although icIT was part of the red noise internal wave band continuum, it was not attributable to instrumental noise. It consisted of quasi-harmonics at non-tidal harmonic frequencies having amplitudes larger than N₂, the third largest semidiurnal tidal constituent. It is suggested that the kinetic energy at these non-tidal frequencies reflects interaction between semidiurnal tidal motions and the slowly varying background conditions.Responsible Editor: Roger Proctor     

Gravity and Inertia-Gravity Internal Waves: Breaking Processes and Induced Mixing

Internal gravity waves, whether influenced or not by the Earths rotation, are ubiquitous dynamical features in the stratosphere and in the interior of the ocean. We review the mechanisms by which such waves may break when propagating in an infinite (possibly moving) fluid with uniform stratification. The methods and models used to quantify mixing in a stably-stratified fluid are next recalled. The mixing properties induced by the breaking waves as obtained from several field, experimental and numerical experiments reported in the literature are presented.     

液化场地上土体侧向变形对桩基影响研究评述

总结了地震作用下桩基震害现象以及桩-土-结构动力相互作用、液化引起地面侧向扩展对桩基的影响方面理论模型和分析方法的研究现状,指出了存在的问题,讨论了今后的发展趋势。     

Natural tracers in recent groundwaters from different Alpine aquifers

Groundwater with underground residence times between days and a few years have been investigated over more than 20 years from 487 remote sites located in different aquifer types in the Alpine belt. Analysis of the data reveals that groundwaters evolved in crystalline, evaporite, carbonate, molasse, and flysch aquifers can be clearly distinguished based on their major and trace element composition and degree of mineralisation. A further subdivision can be made even within one aquifer type based on the trace element compositions, which are characteristic for the lithologic environment. Major and trace element concentrations can be quantitatively described by interaction of the groundwater with the aquifer-specific mineralogy along the flow path. Because all investigated sites show minimal anthropogenic influences, the observed concentration ranges represent the natural background concentrations and can thus serve as a geo-reference for recent groundwaters from these five aquifer types. This geo-reference is particularly useful for the identification of groundwater contamination. It further shows that drinking water standards can be grossly exceeded for critical elements by purely natural processes.

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Resumen Durnate más de 20 años se ha investigado aguas subterráneas con una residencia subterránea con una duración de días a varios años en 487 puntos remotos localizados en diferentes tipos de acuíferos en la cadena alpina. El análisis de los datos revela que las aguas subterráneas que han evolucionado dentro de acuíferos cristalinos, evaporíticos, carbonatos, flysch, y molasse se pueden distignuir claramente en base a la composición de sus elementos mayores y marcadores y al grado de minerlización. Asimismo es posible hacer una subdivisión más específica incluso dentro de un tipo de acuífero en base a las composiciones de los elementos marcadores los cuales soncaracterísticos del ambiente litológico. Las concentraciones de los elementos marcadores se pueden describir cuantitativamente por la interacción de las aguas subterráneas con la mineralogía específica del acuífero a lo largo del trayecto del flujo. Puesto qze todos los puntos investigados muestran mínimas influencias antropogénicas, los rangos deconcentraciones observados representan las concentraciones delescenario natural y, por tanto, pueden servir como georeferencia para aguas subterráneas recientes que forman parte de estos cinco tipos de acuíferos. Esta georeferencia es particularmente útil para la identificcación de contaminación de aguas subterráneas. Asimismo muestra que los estándares de agua potable pueden mostrar excesos en elementos críticos por procesos puramente naturales.

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Résumé Leau souterraine ayant résidé sous la surface du sol entre quelques jours et quelques années a été étudiée sur une période de plus de 20 ans à partir de 487 sites éloignés situés dans différents types daquifères de la ceinture alpine. Lanalyse des données révèle que leau qui a évoluée dans des aquifères cristallins, évaporitiques, carbonatés, molassiques et composés de flysch, peut être facilement différenciée sur la base de sa composition en éléments majeurs et traces, ainsi que par son degré de minéralisation. Une subdivision supplémentaire peut être apportée à lintérieur même dun type daquifère en se basant sur la composition des éléments traces, lesquels sont caractéristiques de lenvironnement lithologique. La concentration en éléments majeurs et traces peut être expliquée quantitativement par linteraction de leau souterraine avec la composition minéralogique spécifique de laquifère le long des lignes découlement. Puisque la majorité des sites étudiés ne montrent que très peu dinfluences anthropogéniques, le registre de concentrations observées représente la concentration de fond naturelle et peut ainsi servir comme géo-référence pour les eaux souterraines récentes dans ces cinq types daquifères. Ces géo-références sont particulièrement utiles pour lidentification de la contamination des eaux souterraines. Par ailleurs, cela démontre que les standards deau potable peuvent être excédés pour certains éléments en raison de processus purement naturels.